Add Umpires to Baseball Betting Portfolio
By: Doug Upstone
This baseball season, umpires have been in the news a bit more often than usual. Joe West called out the Yankees and Red Sox for slow play in April, as most of their games go right up against a 240 minute hour glass. And just last week Jim Joyce cost Detroit’s Armando Galarraga a place in baseball history by missing a call that would have given him the 21st perfect game ever.
But umpires have other uses besides being screamed at like “Hey ump you stink” or “Come on blue get in the game”. Sharp baseball bettors take the time to study or at the very least know whose working behind the dish to understand what kind of influence they may have on the outcome of a game.
This is especially true for baseball bettors who playing totals. Umpiring is more standardized today with the use of modern equipment to see how consistent an umpire is in calling balls and strikes, compared to the old days when the National League was known a “high ball” league and American League was known as a “low ball” league based on how they wore their chest protectors.
Those days are gone, however each umpire interprets the strike zone differently and it tends to be somewhat of a moving target.
This is where you find some are liberal with the zone and their games tend to be lower scoring, while others are smaller, either by width or height and the games they call behind the plate are often higher scoring with pitchers having to catch more of plate which gives batters a better choice of pitches to hit.
Here are the umpires that have called the highest percentage of Over contests this season.
Games OVER the total (Pushes not listed)
Angel Campos 9-2
Tim Welke 9-2
Angel Hernandez 9-3
Mike Reilly 8-3
Sam Holbrook 6-2
Next are the umps that have called the most Under the oddsmakers total.
Games UNDER the total (Pushes not listed)
Jim Wolf 10-1
Bob Davidson 10-2
Bruce Dreckman 9-2
Dan Iassogna 9-3
One aspect that has to be considered is who and the types of pitchers involved. If the men in shirtsleeves this time of year have No. 4 or 5 starters on consistent basis and they have tighter strike zone to begin with, needless to say the chances of a higher scoring game go up. Conversely, if an umpire draws the top pitchers from the various teams and normally gives the hurler the benefit of the doubt to begin with, than he’s more inclined to have games flying Under the number.
One further point of consideration is the record of an umpire in home or away situations. This generally is less important, nevertheless extreme cases should be part of the decision-making process.
These guys are human and are going to be influenced by their surroundings, a juiced up home crowd could sway decisions, just like what happens in basketball to officials. Other umps might be a touch “prickly”, and go out of their way to give the visitor the benefit of the doubt.
You can’t help but notice the home team is 12-0 with Ted Tichenor behind the plate in a home ball park in 2010. Others with figures supporting the club that bats last are Tim McClelland 11-2, Gerry Davis 10-3, Brian O’Nora 10-3, Greg Gibson 10-3 and Jerry Meals 10-3.
Those that have the opposite numbers with the visiting team coming out ahead are Ed Rapuano 9-2 (visitors record), Marvin Hudson 8-3, plus Bob Davidson and Laz Diaz at 9-4.
The idea isn’t to base a baseball wager on the outcome of what an umpire’s record is on totals or sides, but to understand they can and do influence the outcome of games. Mixed with other key information, they are part of the fabric of the game and baseball wagering.