Pretty sure I hit 50% yesterday wasn't breathtaking, AT ALL.... After hearing some of your guys advice last night I think I can do much better today. I've been on a lot of these different forms but always come back here for the truth. LOL no you guys are not alone!!!
Miami ml$
Pits over
Cards ml
Phillies over
Dodgers ml
Reds over
Wash ml
Braves over
Cubs under
Rockies ml
Mets under
Giants ml
D'backs ml
Padres over
Astros under
Orioles ml
Rangers ml
Tampa over
Boston ml
Detroit Over
Bluejays over
Indians ml
Twins over
KC ml
Yankees ml
Angels under
Just my thoughts
I have been doing this a long time, a LONG time. I know a lot of people, I've met a lot of people, I've been to Vegas, I've been offshore, and the reality of the situation is that nobody can play this many games and be successful, it's just not possible.
Also, there is really no one right way to break down a game and I have seen it done hundreds of ways. However, I will tell you without a doubt that everyone I have ever met that actually wins uses line movement.
What a lot of people don't really understand is that betting isn't as much about breaking down games as it is finding unusual things and exploiting them. Like my old man says, keep it simple stupid.
very good pizzaguy .but as a former bookmaker im from the school of less plays the better and no favs of -106- 110 keep your eye on tim he dozent use favs for sides anyway .as a former book i always wanted each player to bet as many games as possable. provided they could pay lol . best of luck today sir.
Line movement is very useful but you have to look at the situation .. when cubs are favored -280 and they move to -260, is this really a sign the dog is going to win and the sharps are all over it? Probably not, it just means there is a lot more value on laying the dog because the "true" line should be -160 or so, it's just inflated because vegas knows everyone loves cubs. You're looking for value, not always true winners and losers. When a favorite drops from say -160 or -140, then you're looking at a good line move and can follow the money.
The best thing to check when looking at these (in my opinion) is in the expanded matchup reports where it tells you how accurate the public is when moving the ML or total in that teams games. If you're at 55% or so correct, follow it.
When you are looking at favorites in any money line sport your absolutely maximum threshold should be -120, period.
Money is made in Baseball on dogs and totals. You will be hard pressed to find anyone who makes money in MLB who consistently takes favorites even at -105 or -110. It's just too hard to recover from a $.30 loss over time.
Miami ml$
Pits over
Cards ml
Phillies over
Dodgers ml
Reds over
Wash ml
Braves over
Cubs under
Rockies ml
Mets under
Giants ml
D'backs ml
Padres over
Astros under
Orioles ml
Rangers ml
Tampa over
Boston ml
Detroit Over
Bluejays over
Indians ml
Twins over
KC ml
Yankees ml
Angels under
Just my thoughts
I think to get anymore help from the guys who have replied to this thread it would be helpful to find out how you came about these picks? This is a lot of games, generally speaking, what drew you to all of these or most of these?
The method you are using to arrive at your picks would be helpful to know
Thanks guys, you can never learn enough! I look at the pitchers, is he good at home, or away, against lefties starters, or better at night games or day games. Does he flop on be money lines. How many runs does the team score per game
I will post my true plays for fun later.
. Really glad I decided to hop on here and talk to you guys.
Thanks again
About two months ago I took a big loss so instead of quitting I decided I was going to figure it out. So I started digging through every game figuring out what stood out to me.. if you look at scoresandodds everything's done by percentage, so I did pitcher vs pitcher by percentages. This pitcher is 80% in home games- this pitcher is 75% in night games, this pitcher is 25% Day games, vs NL EAST, OR AL WEST blah blah blah. Then bullpins, Then I looked at the amount of runs a team was scoring. I actually did pretty good MOST DAYS. Some days my paper was 70 - 80% but that still doesn't tell me which games to pick even the ones I like the most were losing.
I might not be getting what you are saying. Are you saying all these games are games you like but aren't the ones you actually bet on? If that is the case what criteria are you using to whittle down your list of likes to actual bets you place?
If that is not what is going on here please explain what your "paper" is please.
For instance
Washington's at home playing the Indians the pitcher for Washington is 2-8 in home games and 6-11 in night games but the pitcher for the Indians is 10-4 in away games and 8-1 in night games. To make it even better the pitcher for Washington is left-handed the pitcher for the Indians is 8-2 against left-handed starters. Then look at bullpins, blah blah blah
I go through all the games looking for stuff like that and then I pick the best ones out of those to bet
For instance
Washington's at home playing the Indians the pitcher for Washington is 2-8 in home games and 6-11 in night games but the pitcher for the Indians is 10-4 in away games and 8-1 in night games. To make it even better the pitcher for Washington is left-handed the pitcher for the Indians is 8-2 against left-handed starters. Then look at bullpins, blah blah blah
I go through all the games looking for stuff like that and then I pick the best ones out of those to bet
Ok, so is that how you are coming up with your list, what are you using for your final picks? is it your gut or are you looking at line moves or the public or whips or what?