AL Betting Futures

AL Betting Futures
By Bruce Marshall

While we have been preoccupied with March Madness and the NBA, the 2010 MLB campaign has snuck up upon us. Which is no problem, as we have plenty of time and room for what has become one of our favorite editorial assignments of each season. We look forward with great anticipation each spring to producing our annual Major League baseball "futures" predictions. It wasn't always that way for us, however, as for a long time we resisted getting involved in season-long over/under "wins" wagers, especially in baseball, because we believed those bets were too good a deal for the house, which, unlike most wagers, would be holding a customer's money for several months. But enough readers reminded us that such "futures" wagers could add some extra excitement to drawn-out regular-season schedules (such as MLB's), and that if approached thoughtfully and carefully could actually prove worthwhile investments. We took heed and are glad we did, because these stories (whether in the NFL, NBA, or baseball) are now among our most popular with our audience, and we've been more right than wrong with our MLB "futures" over the past seven years.

So, let's get down to business. Following are our preferred "futures" predictions for the 2010 MLB season; unless otherwise noted, season win numbers in parenthesis () courtesy Bodog. First up will be the American League. Our thanks as always to TGS baseball consultant Daniel M. Gray for his contributions and observations.

AL EAST: Best recommendation...Although his team has been hopelessly outclassed in this roughest of baseball divisions over most of the past decade, owner Peter Angelos can be thankful to the AL East for one thing; those extra dates with the Yankees and Red Sox have helped pad the sagging attendance numbers for the once-proud Baltimore Orioles (74 1/2), whose crowd counts these days would otherwise be no better than the woeful Nats about 40 miles to the south. And unless lightning strikes with the pitching staff, don't expect much improvement at the gate this season. The O's are counting heavily upon some live young arms (Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Brad Bergesen) to solidify what has been a woeful rotation; we hope skipper Dave Trembley isn't counting upon journeyman Jeremy Guthrie and Kevin Millwood, each getting lit up with regularity in Sarasota this spring, to solidify the situation. Infield defense is also potentially shaky, especially with overweight FA Miguel Tejada moving to a new position at 3B, and the status of 2B Brian Roberts (who has to have a big season if Baltimore is to make a run at .500) is a concern after an injury-plagued spring. In a best-case scenario, the O's might be able to outscore some foes if OFs Adam Jones and Nick Markakis and DH Luke Scott can stay healthy. But there appear too many ways for the O's to once again veer off course in the unforgiving AL East, and let's not forget the status of the aforementioned Trembley, who enters April on a short leash and likely to be cut loose if the team isn't close to .500 by the All-Star break, with the potential for "adjustment losses" thereafter. After last year's 64-98 train wreck, we see no way the O's improve 10 or more games; it's another "under" for us at Camden Yards.

Others to watch...No one seems to be paying much attention these days to the Toronto Blue Jays (70 1/2). And for good reason; after the regime of GM J.P. Ricciardi was humanely terminated, Toronto is in rebuild mode under new GM Alex Anthopolous. Even the most diehard fans north of the border acknowledge the Jays have about as much chance of contending as the Maple Leafs do of winning the Stanley Cup (which is nil). But Anthopolous appears to be off to a good start, landing a trio of prized prospects (P Kyle Drabek, 1B Brett Wallace, and C Travis D'Arnaud) in the Roy Halladay trade, all of whom could make positive contributions before the end of the season. And, at some point, starting pitchers Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch figure to be healthy again and into the rotation. Those issues or not, Grapefruit League observers still believe the young Jays staff gives skipper Cito Gaston more depth and options than the Orioles, especially with Shawn Marcum and Ricky Romero having flashed star potential a year ago. There are some legitimate concerns offensively, where the Jays will have trouble matching their power numbers (especially the 209 homers) from a year ago unless CF Vernon Wells can rediscover his old stroke; Wells (if any team is brave enough to assume his big contract) and 1B Lyle Overbay are also prime candidates to be moved at the trade deadline. But if OF Jose Bautista and 3B Edwin Encarnacion can provide some protection for power-hitting LF Adam Lind, the offense shouldn't be terrible. The Jays at least look better to us on paper than the Orioles, and a patient manager such as Gaston should be able to squeeze out enough wins to approach or perhaps surpass last year's modest 75-87 mark. We're going "over" at Rogers Centre.

Compared to most recent seasons, there isn't quite the premium we're used to seeing on the New York Yankees (95 1/2). Maybe it's because, unlike a year ago, the Bronx Bombers had something of a quiet offseason, mostly switching parts (OFs Johnny Damon & Melky Cabrera and DH Hideki Matsui out; OF Curtis Granderson, 1B Nick Johnson, and P Javier Vazquez in) instead of stockpiling like a year ago when frontline starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia & A.J. Burnett headlined a bountiful FA crop and paved the way for the Yanks' first World Series crown since 2000. But we wonder if the chemistry will be the same without "glue guys" such as Damon and Matsui; are there really any strong RBI types left in the OF? Granderson? Brett Gardner? Nick Swisher? Can the Yanks simply rely upon A-Rod and Mark Teixeira to bludgeon foes into submission like a year ago? SS Derek Jeter's range is not what it used to be, and it might be asking a lot of the staff (Sabathia and injury-prone Burnett in particular) to again camouflage the potential defensive shortcomings, especially on the left side of the infield. This is no longer a young rotation, either, and Joe Girardi is going to need the aging Vazquez and Andy Pettitte to eat up a lot of innings; injuries to either of those two, plus Burnett's history of stints on the DL, are concerns and could potentially expose the staff. And now 40-year-old closer Mariano Rivera has to slow down sometime, doesn't he? A World Series repeat is hardly a guarantee, and we think the Yanks are going to be very hard-pressed to get beyond the 93-95 win level; it's an "under" for us in the Bronx.

Some price shopping might be suggested for the Tampa Bay Rays (between 87 1/2-89 1/2 at various books), who still got to 84 wins a year ago despite having all sorts of things go wrong after their surprise run to the AL pennant in 2008. An impressive nucleus suggest the Rays could easily climb back into serious contention, especially with a young and potentially-dominant rotation led by James Shields and Matt Garza, with ex-Rice Owl Jeff Niemann & ex-Vandy Commodore David Price hinting at stardom. And the offseason addition of closer Rafael Soriano from the Braves indicates the Rays are serious about upgrading their bullpen. Our only concerns are about potential free agents OF Carl Crawford & 1B Carlos Pena, linchpins of an explosive attack offense but also possibly on the block at the trade deadline if the Rays don't believe they can re-sign either, as well as questions about a late-inning bridge in the bullpen to Soriano with key setup man J.P. Howell likely out until at least May with shoulder problems. But with 3B Evan Longoria and SS Jason Bartlett anchoring perhaps the best left-side of the infield in the league, 2B Ben Zobrist emerging as a star, and CF B.J. Upton likely to rebound from a subpar '08, there are plenty of reasons to like Joe Maddon's club, which hopes its big spring in Port Charlotte foretells the sort of quick break from the gate that eluded last year's team. We're giving a provisional "over" at the Trop as long as you can play Tampa Bay at 89 or lower.

Tough to call...GM Theo Epstein made no bones about what his priority was in the offseason for the Boston Red Sox (94 1/2) ; defense, defense, and more defense, and a little bit more pitching as well. Some hard-to-camouflage defensive leaks put a real strain on the Bosox staff a year ago, and to that end Epstein went about reshaping the lineup in the offseason, adding former Gold Glovers Mike Cameron (CF) and Adrian Beltre (3B) along with slick-fielding SS Marco Scutaro to the Boston mix. The "new-look" Red Sox now boast three former Gold Glovers in the infield, while the addition of Cameron has allowed the fleet Jacoby Ellsbury to move to LF (where he figures as a major defensive upgrade over the departed Jason Bay); along with RF J.D. Drew, Terry Francona's new-look OF now has above-average range at each position. Meanwhile, adding ex-Angel John Lackey to a staff that already includes Josh Beckett and Jon Lester gives the Bosox a potentially-dominant trio at the top of the rotation. Now, the question becomes how much Epstein has sacrificed with the offense, which has not been an issue in recent years at Fenway but could become one in 2010 with the often-erratic Cameron and Beltre (both of whom with holes in their swings) as well as some advanced age at the DH spot, where David Ortiz and Mike Lowell are both on the downside of their careers. If the offense sputters, expect Epstein to make moves at the trade deadline, but given those concerns, it's a no-call for us in Beantown.

AL CENTRAL: Best recommendation...Admittedly, it's not good news when your All-Star closer has to shut things down for the season in spring. Which is the dilemma facing the Minnesota Twins (84 1/2) after Joe Nathan's recent Tommy John surgery that will keep him out until 2011. But that's about all that Twins fans have to complain about, especially with their sparkling, new Target Field ready to open and reintroduce outdoor big league baseball to the Twin Cities for the first time since the old Met was still around in 1981. For the moment, manager Ron Gardenhire is planning on replacing Nathan with a closer-by-committee approach, with the hope that Francisco Liriano might emerge as a nice stop-gap fireman. But whatever happens, don't expect GM Bill Smith to allow bullpen issues to undermine the season, as he has plenty of pieces to trade for relief help if needed. The organization is giddy about C Joe Mauer's freshly-signed, $184 million contract, and offseason acquisitions such as SS J.J. Hardy, 2B Orlando Hudson, and DH Jim Thome figure to fit nicely into an already-formidable lineup featuring Mauer and 1B Justin Morneau. And if spring work means anything, the staff should be in good shape, as starters Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn have shined in Ft. Myers, adding quality depth to a rotation featuring Scott Baker and Carl Pavano at the top. Since we believe Gardenhire has plenty of options to compensate for Nathan's injury, there's no reason the Twins can't go "over" and return to the postseason.

Others to watch...Poor Manny Acta. Whereas some coaches/managers like Phil Jackson and Joe Torre seem to inherit winning situations, Acta gets stuck with the Cleveland Indians (74 1/2) after spending the past few years trying to float a sinking Washington Nationals ship. Acta, who supposedly turned down a chance to manage the Astros to instead join the Tribe, might learn to regret that decision, especially since GM Mark Shapiro decided to basically stand pat in the offseason and make few upgrades from a Cleveland team that collapsed to 65-97 a year ago, prompting the dismissal of popular skipper Eric Wedge. Prospects are as gloomy along the Cuyahoga as they were in the dark days of 70s and 80s, especially with a pitching staff that can now only dream about the days with C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee leading the rotation. Instead, Acta will be going to battle with a jerry-rigged staff featuring question marks Jake Westbrook (off Tommy John surgery), Fausto Carmona (13-19 since his breakout '07 season; .295 OBA LY), and Jeremy Sowers (11-26 the past three seasons; shoulder issues in spring) at the top of arguably the shakiest-looking rotation in the league. And if that wasn't bad enough, closer Kerry Wood is out for at least the first month with back problems. Given the likely carnage that will result, the 1927 Yankees would have trouble outscoring the opposition, so even if now-healthy DH Travis Hafner bounces back to pre-2008 form, we doubt he and OFs Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo, can compensate, especially with the one offseason addition of note, 1B Russell Branyan, missing all of spring with back problems and opening the season on the DL. Never mind the encouraging performances in the Cactus League; there's no way can we envision the Tribe improving 10 games from last season. It's a definite "under" for us at (non-)Progressive Field.

Although number one fan Barack Obama didn't concede defeat until his Chicago White Sox (82 1/2) were mathematically eliminated, the Chisox faded so badly down the stretch last September that skipper Ozzie Guillen's job was even rumored to be in some jeopardy. The offense, now minus familiar faces Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome, remains a concern, although encouraging spring performances by the newly-acquired Andruw Jones and holdover Mark Kotsay gave hope to Guillen and his new DH-by-committee approach. What really has Ozzie excited, however, is the presence of a potentially-dominant pitching staff that appears to be exiting Arizona in a healthy state. Which is great news regarding Jake Peavy, who was never 100% after coming over from the Padres at last July's trade deadline, but now teams with likely co-ace Mark Buehrle at the top of a 5-deep rotation. Meanwhile, closer Bobby Jenks shook off an early spring calf injury and is ready to spearhead what appears to be an above-average bullpen. Of course, the staff will probably need to be sharp to compensate for an offense that has its share of question marks; CF Alex Rios needs to produce the sort of stats he did in Toronto after flopping badly in his south side debut the last two months of '09, and keeping OF Carlos Quentin healthy after an injury-marred campaign will be key. The pressure will also be on newly-acquired ex-Royals 3B Mark Teahen to hit the ground running. Still, a Peavy-Buehrle combo at the top of a solid rotation will give the Chisox a chance even if the bats are quiet, so we'll look "over" at The Cell.

Prospects are not too cheery these days in the Motor City, whether it be about the local economy, the Lions, Pistons, or Detroit Tigers (80 1/2), who looked to be a shoe-in for last year's AL Central crown before recalling the 1964 Phillies with a stretch-drive fade that saw them blow a 7-game lead in early September and eventually collapse in the final week, allowing the Twins to pull level on closing day and then win a playoff game in extra innings at the Metrodome. GM Dave Dombrowski then embarked upon something of a salary dump in the offseason, moving the soon-expiring contracts of CF Curtis Granderson (to the Yankees) and P Edwin Jackson (to the D-backs) in trades while acquiring numerous prospects, and allowing several other FAs (including 2B Placido Polanco and the back of the bullpen, Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney) to walk. Noting the potential risks that could have resulted from two rookies (CF Austin Jackson & 2B Scott Sizemore) at the top of the batting order, manager Jim Leyland at least convinced Dombrowski to bring in Johnny Damon as the new leadoff hitter, which allows the young Sizemore to drop down in the order. But with RF Magglio Ordonez' power numbers having slipped so dramatically, we doubt the Tigers are going to outslug many foes, especially since ace Justin Verlander (to whom Dombrowski did transfer some of that dumped salary in a new contract) pitches just once every five games. Not much to get excited about these days in Detroit other than a chili dog at Lafayette Coney Island; look "under" at Comerica Park.

Tough to call...So much for all of that talk a year ago about the Kansas City Royals (71 1/2) becoming the next Tampa Bay; the Royals resembled the Rays alright, only it was the losing versions pre-2008. Which was curious, because things were looking good at the remodeled Kauffman Stadium into early June when the Royals were hanging around .500. The bottom eventually dropped out because the defense was so poor (AL-worst 117 errors) and the offense didn't have enough power to compensate for a pitching staff that tailed off dramatically after Cy Young winner Zack Greinke. We're concerned about the latter again this season, especially with number two starter Gil Meche likely to open the season on the DL with shoulder and back problems. But GM Dayton Moore at least addressed the outfield defense issues by adding the gloves of Rick Ankiel and Scott Podsednik, and if the bullpen can protect a few more leads before turning things over to lights-out closer Joakim Soria, the Royals might not embarrass themselves. No matter, the whole situation makes us uncomfortable, especially with manager Trey Hillman likely to walk the plank by the All-Star break if things don't improve, so we're going to take a pass on the Royals.