AL Central Outlook
By Joe Nelson
The White Sox and Padres appear to be close to a deal involving Jake Peavy though he would have to waive his no-trade clause. Of all the teams rumored to make a move of that nature this summer, few expected that Chicago team to be the one making the move. The AL Central is wide open however and it appears like one move could be enough to put any of the five teams over the top in this division. As we have seen in recent postseasons, all you have do is get there and often surprising things happen, so expect this to be the first of many moves rumored involving AL Central squads this summer.
Detroit Tigers: The Tigers have been the early front runner despite being last in this division in 2008. Detroit has been the best hitting team in the Central, currently averaging .272 while scoring 210 runs for an average of over 5.5 runs per game. The Tigers already have one west coast trip out of the way but they have not played many games in the powerful AL East where many of the other Central teams have already struggled. Detroit is 2-5 against New York and Toronto but the Tigers have fared well against the current AL West leader Texas. Starting next week Detroit will play 17 of the next 23 on the road with the home games coming against the Red Sox and the Angels so it should be quickly determined if the Tigers have what it takes to be a contender.
Detroit’s pitching has been the big reason for the revival. Last year the Tigers had near league-worst numbers in most categories on the mound but so far this year Detroit owns a respectable 4.23 team ERA and the bullpen has been fairly reliable. Ace Justin Verlander appears to be back on track after an off 2008 season and Edwin Jackson has proven to be a great pick-up so far. Rookie Rick Porcello has lived up to his hype so far this year but last year’s best starter Armando Galarraga has been a disappointment. Dontrelle Willis had a very encouraging start last week and Zach Miner is still fairly capable spot starter if needed giving Detroit a promising rotation for the rest of the season.
Detroit is not likely to make any big moves with a lot of money already tied up in big name players and once Carlos Guillen returns there will be more flexibility with the lineup. Adam Everett has been surprisingly productive at shortstop and Clete Thomas and Josh Anderson have been capable options in the outfield so far which would negate the need to go after another bat in those spots. An outfield bat might be something Detroit would consider in a deal if injuries to Guillen and Magglio Ordonez persist but it is likely that the young bats can fill those roles on a temporary basis. If Detroit is still in first place by the end of June this is a team that should be considered a serious playoff threat as the upcoming schedule will get very difficult and the pitching staff needs to show a larger sample of success to be trusted.
Kansas City Royals: The Royals are not typically a player at the trade deadline but things could change this year as Kansas City is right in the thick of a pennant race as we approach June, something that has not happened in a while. The Royals management has been a bit more aggressive in recent years and knowing that the windows of opportunity for small market teams are small, Kansas City could take a gamble. The Royals have had a favorable early season schedule so management might be wise to let things play out a bit longer to make sure that this team is serious about hanging around. The Royals have not played a road trip longer than six games yet this season and not a single road game against the AL East has occurred yet. The Royals have played six more home games than road games and the Royals are just 3-8 in the last eleven games.
Pitching has been the key for the Royals as they own a 3.66 team ERA, best in the AL. The Royals pitching staff has obviously been carried by Zack Greinke who is 7-1 with a 0.60 ERA. Take away Greinke and this is an average to below average staff. Gil Meche has pitched a bit worse than he has the past two years and Kyle Davies has not recaptured the solid late season numbers he posted last year. Brian Bannister has been encouraging in limited action so far this year but he had a very strong start last season before a complete meltdown. Adding another solid starter to the rotation will probably be necessary for the Royals to seriously be thinking playoffs. The Kansas City bullpen has been right up with the best in baseball so far this season even dealing with nagging injuries to closer Joakim Soria so adding a reliever will not likely be a priority.
The Royals are still a below average hitting team and only one regular is hitting over .285. Outside of Mike Jacobs with nine home runs, no other Royal has more than five long balls on the season so there is still a dearth of power at Kauffman. If Alex Gordon can return from injury and be productive Kansas City’s offense can compete capably as finding another quality starter would likely make more of a difference for this team unless Bannister or Luke Hochevar can be counted on. The Royals have an incredibly tough late season schedule in August and September so Kansas City fans may not want to get too locked into playoff hopes.
Minnesota Twins: The Twins were so close to the playoffs last season and many felt this would be the team to beat in this division for 2009. It has not been the case as what was a promising rotation last season has been very mediocre this season and the bullpen has been a complete disaster. The offense had some questions entering the year with regards to juggling a collection of five outfielders, none of which stand out, and also dealing with an injury to catcher Joe Mauer and the questions with injuries with Joe Crede at third base. So far the offense has been fine even with Mauer missing the first month of the season. Justin Morneau is posting MVP-type numbers and the Twins are hitting .270 as a team while showing a flash of power that has been very uncommon in Minnesota.
The Twins have played eight road games versus the AL East and 15 games overall against that division so the early season schedule has likely been tougher than most of the other teams in this division have faced. Minnesota has played five more home games than road games however and the Twins have been outscored by 25 runs so there are some less promising signs as well. With the next three series against the Brewers, Red Sox, and Rays, things could get worse before they get better for Minnesota and there are not a lot of options for this club in terms of making a move.
Francisco Liriano has been the biggest disappointment in the pitching staff but he has not pitched that much worse than any of the other starters. Kevin Slowey has a very misleading 5-1 record as Glen Perkins and Nick Blackburn have likely been the most reliable on the staff. Scott Baker has pitched better than his numbers but none of the starters have pitched up to expectations. The bullpen has been the most glaring problem however and if Minnesota hopes to stay in the division race they will need to find a few better relief options either via trade of through the farm system. This team dearly misses Pat Neshek who was injured last season or players like Juan Rincoin and J.C. Romero who filled very effective set-up roles for the team in past years.
Chicago White Sox: Last year’s division champion appears to be willing make some moves to better this team and make a playoff run. The White Sox were projected by most to dive in the standings this year but none of the other teams have been able to create separation and adding Jake Peavy would instantly put the Sox back in the picture. The starting rotation for the White Sox is already decent as Mark Buehrle has had a great start to the year and John Danks and Bartolo Colon are pitching well enough for Chicago. The bullpen is very good and can make the starters seem that much better. Gavin Floyd has had a rough start to the season but he remains a viable option but finding someone to fill the spot of Jose Contreras is an urgent concern as Contreras simply failed to compete this year.
Chicago is just 7-14 on the road this season and the Sox will either need to improve that mark or become a dominant team at home as they were at times last season. Chicago is only scoring four runs per game while hitting .244 but despite a poor start from the offense the Sox are still right in the division race. Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye have had strong years and Carlos Quentin and Jim Thome still provide great power threats. The struggles of Alexei Ramirez, who was the spark for this team last year, has been the biggest surprise and concern but the recent play of Scott Podsednik appears to be providing a bit of a boost at the top of the lineup. Josh Fields and Chris Getz are also likely to improve as they get more experience so this is an offense that would be good enough to compete.
There will be fewer options to bolster the infield so adding a starting pitcher to shore up the rotation would be the best play for Chicago. If they can pull off the Peavy deal this becomes a very dangerous team as Peavy would instantly take a lot of pressure off the younger starters like Danks and Floyd and also give the White Sox an ace right-hander to compliment Buehrle on the left-side. If the Sox can find a way to win this division they would have to be considered a serious postseason threat with that type of pitching in a short series.
Cleveland Indians: The Indians have been considered the most likely to make a personnel move but not a move to help this year’s team. It has been an incredibly disappointing start for the Indians but in reality they are not that far out of the race. The Indians have scored more runs than any team in the AL Central and the Indians have been one of the better hitting teams in the AL despite striking out frequently. This is a team that started very slow last season and came on late so there is hope for this team to get back above .500 and it won’t take a huge leap over .500 to win this division.
Cleveland has some of the worst pitching numbers in baseball with a 5.65 team ERA as opposing batters are hitting .284. The numbers are likely to calm down however, as the Indians have played a very tough schedule to this point in the season. Cleveland has played at Texas, New York, Boston, and Tampa Bay already this year. The Indians have played 18 games versus AL East teams and only three versus the weaker AL West so there should be an adjustment for Cleveland based solely on the schedule. The next home stand will start a run of 17 of 23 at home so that could be a great window of opportunity for this team.
Travis Hafner will come back to help the team at some point and Grady Sizemore will improve his .208 average. Matt LaPorta is getting regular playing time and he could provide a boost while Shin-Soo Choo and Victor Martinez are posting career best numbers so far this year. The offense should not need much help but the pitching staff has greatly struggled. After a rough start Cliff Lee looks like the pitcher he was last season and Fausto Carmona and Carl Pavano have shown enough promise to expect that the numbers will improve. After that there are not many options as Anthony Reyes has struggled and Jeremy Sowers has not proven to be big-league material. Aaron Laffey has had an encouraging run since being put back into the rotation and there are some promising prospects at the minor league level. Cleveland will be rumored to dump Lee if they continue to struggle but if the Indians show some promise don’t rule out a more aggressive move to bolster the staff.
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