AL East Preview
By Kevin Rogers
The American League East seems like a predictable division, with the Yankees and Red Sox finishing at the top of the heap. Tampa Bay is one year removed from winning the AL Pennant, as the Rays look to steal the division back from New York. Meanwhile, Baltimore and Toronto try to re-tool in this very competitive division.
New York Yankees
Review: It was back to business as usual for the Bronx Bombers, claiming their 27th World Series title after downing the Phillies in six games. New York finished with the top record in the game at 103-59, but the more impressive number was the 88-42 mark the Yanks compiled since May 13. That coincides with the return of Alex Rodriguez to the lineup, as A-Rod concluded 2009 with 30 home runs and 100 RBI. The man that benefited the most from Rodriguez's return to the field was Mark Teixiera, who knocked out 39 homers and 122 RBI.
The two big pitching acquisitions paid off dearly, as both CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett combined to win 32 games. Andy Pettitte provided another solid season with a 14-8 campaign, while Joba Chamberlain picked up nine victories in his first full season as a starter. Sabathia and Pettitte were huge during the World Series, finishing 7-1, while Mariano Rivera shut the door with five postseason saves.
Season Outlook: Not much to overanalyze with the most-talented team in baseball (that also employs the highest payroll). The Yanks did upgrade their outfield by acquiring Curtis Granderson from the Tigers, while bolstering their rotation by picking up Javier Vazquez from the Braves. New York usually starts out of the gate slow, and this season's start will be a rough one. The Yanks travel to Boston and Tampa Bay for the first six games, followed by a rematch of the ALCS with the Angels in the Bronx. Regardless of the results, the Bombers will be playing in October as long as their health holds up.
Projected Rotation: CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37), A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04), Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16), Javier Vazquez (15-10, 2.87), Joba Chamberlain (9-6, 4.75)
Projected Closer: Mariano Rivera (3-3, 1.76, 44 saves)
Key Acquisitions: CF Curtis Granderson (Tigers), P Javier Vazquez (Braves), 1B Nick Johnson (Marlins), OF Randy Winn (Giants), OF Marcus Thames (Tigers)
Key Losses: OF Johnny Damon (Tigers), OF Melky Cabrera (Braves), OF Hideki Matsui (Angels), 1B/OF Eric Hinske (Braves), OF Xavier Nady (Cubs), P Chien-Ming Wang (Nationals), IF Jerry Hairston, Jr. (Padres), C Jose Molina (Blue Jays)
Trends to Watch: The Yankees will always be overpriced due to perception and talent, but there are still opportunities to profit with the Champs. New York finished 37-14 against right-handed pitchers at home, while going 21-9 against left-handed hurlers in the Bronx. The best bet would be taking the Yankees as a favorite of less than $1.50 (if you can get that price).
Future Odds: +140 to win AL Pennant, according to Sportsbook.com.
Boston Red Sox
Review: Since winning the World Series in 2007, the Sox claimed the Wild Card berth in the AL for the second straight season. Boston was on the doorstep of the Fall Classic in 2008, but was ousted by Tampa Bay in seven games. Terry Francona's club was three and done this past postseason after getting swept by the Angels in the ALDS. The Sox finished the season at 95-67, while owning the second-best home record in the league at 56-25.
The lineup thrived once again, thanks to four players hitting at least 24 home runs (Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, Jason Bay, and J.D. Drew), while Jacoby Ellsbury led the Majors with 70 stolen bases. The pitching staff ranked near the middle of the AL in most major categories, but Josh Beckett and Jon Lester still did a terrific job anchoring the rotation. The two aces combined for a 32-14 record, while each tossing over 200 innings.
Season Outlook: The Sox will once again be in a battle with the Yankees for the division title, but Boston lost a big bat in the offseason with Bay's departure to the Mets. John Lackey will give the Sox another ace behind Beckett and Lester after the former Angel inked a five-year, $82 million deal. Lackey has struggled at Fenway over the years, going 1-5 his last six starts with the Angels in Boston. GM Theo Epstein did a nice job by bringing in veteran players to the already established nucleus with the acquisitions of Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron, Marco Scutaro, Bill Hall, and Jeremy Hermida.
Projected Rotation: Josh Beckett (17-6, 3.86), Jon Lester (15-8, 3.41), John Lackey (11-8, 3.83), Daisuke Matsuzaka (4-6, 5.76), Clay Buchholz (7-4, 4.21)
Projected Closer: Jonathan Papelbon (1-1, 1.85, 38 saves)
Key Acquistions: P John Lackey (Angels), 3B Adrian Beltre (Mariners), CF Mike Cameron (Brewers), RF Jeremy Hermida (Marlins), 3B/OF Bill Hall (Mariners), SS Marco Scutaro (Blue Jays), P Joe Nelson (Rays), P Brian Shouse (Rays)
Key Losses: LF Jason Bay (Mets), 1B Casey Kotchman (Mariners), SS Alex Gonzalez (Blue Jays), P Billy Wagner (Braves), P Takashi Saito (Braves)
Trends to Watch: Beckett and Lester were two of the five most profitable pitchers for bettors to back last season, combining for over 17 units. The Red Sox finished 14-5 after a game in which they scored at least ten runs, including an 8-1 mark at home.
Future Odds: 4/1 to win AL Pennant, according to Sportsbook.com.
Tampa Bay Rays
Review: For the first time in franchise history, the Rays had a letdown season. After a decade of futility, Tampa Bay shocked the baseball world when it claimed the AL Pennant in 2008. The Rays were a solid club in 2009, but fell short of the postseason with an 84-78 mark. Tampa Bay's pitching carried them during '08, but the starting staff took several steps back after James Shields and Matt Garza each struggled. The two fireballers collected just 19 wins, while Shields was the worst starting pitcher to back, losing bettors over 11 units. The offense provided plenty of pop behind Carlos Pena (39 HR) and Evan Longoria (33 HR), while Jason Bartlett and Carl Crawford each hit over .300. The September swoon did in the Rays, as Joe Madden's team started the final month at 2-14, putting a nail in the coffin of Tampa Bay's season.
Season Outlook: The mid-season trade of Scott Kazmir to the Angels didn't necessarily ruin Tampa Bay's season, as the oft-injured lefty went 8-7 with the Rays. Shields should bounce back this season following a 9-9 campaign at the Trop. The key to the staff is Jeff Niemann and David Price trying to capitalize on their success in each of their first full seasons. The Rays will finally have a consistent closer after the pickup of Rafael Soriano from the Braves. Facing the Red Sox and Yankees 36 times won't help Tampa Bay's cause, but look for them to be in the playoff mix once again.
Projected Rotation: James Shields (11-12, 4.12), Matt Garza (8-12, 3.95), Jeff Niemann (13-6, 3.94), David Price (10-7, 4.42), Wade Davis (2-2, 3.72)
Projected Closer: Rafael Soriano (1-6, 2.97, 27 saves)
Key Acquisitions: P Rafael Soriano (Braves), C Kelly Shoppach (Indians)
Key Losses: 2B Akinori Iwamura (Pirates), P Joe Nelson (Red Sox), P Brian Shouse (Red Sox), C Gregg Zaun (Brewers)
Trends to Watch: The Rays were still strong at Tropicana Field, despite winning five less games in 2009 (52) compared to 2008 (57). The best spot to back the Rays at home was against right-handed starters, going 35-16. Facing righties on the road was not a profitable endeavor, as the Rays finished 19-30 in that situation.
Future Odds: 7/1 to win AL Pennant, according to Sportsbook.com.
Baltimore Orioles
Review: The O's are coming off their fourth straight season with 70 wins or less, limping to a 64-98 finish at the bottom of the division. The AL East took out its frustration on Baltimore, with the O's dropping 48 games against division foes. Baltimore's pitching ranked near the bottom of the AL in most categories, as Jeremy Guthrie led the team in wins (10), but owned a bloated ERA of 5.04. The O's had only one hitter knock out more than 20 home runs (Luke Scott), while Nick Markakis paced the lineup with 101 RBI.
Season Outlook: Baltimore improved its pitching staff with the acquisitions of veteran starter Kevin Millwood from Texas and closer Mike Gonzalez from Atlanta. The Orioles' lineup isn't bad, especially after picking up former Baltimore shortstop Miguel Tejada. The O's will continue to build around Markakis, Brian Roberts, and Adam Jones, but the pitching has to improve quickly if they want to hover around .500.
Projected Rotation: Kevin Millwood (13-10, 3.67), Jeremy Guthrie (10-17, 5.04), Brian Matusz (5-2, 4.63), Chris Tillman (2-5, 5.40), Brad Bergesen (7-5, 3.43)
Projected Closer: Mike Gonzalez (5-4, 2.42, 10 saves)
Key Acquistions: P Kevin Millwood (Rangers), P Mike Gonzalez (Braves), IF Garrett Atkins (Rockies), SS Miguel Tejada (Astros)
Key Losses: 3B Melvin Mora (Rockies), P Danys Baez (Phillies)
Trends to Watch: The Orioles were usually profitable if you 'faded' them on the road. Baltimore finished 13-35 against right-handed starters and 12-21 against left-handed starters away from Camden Yards. The 'under' was a strong play at home when facing southpaw starters, as the O's finished 'under' the total in 19 of 28 games.
Future Odds: 25/1 to win AL Pennant, according to Sportsbook.com.
Toronto Blue Jays
Review: The Jays began the season on fire, winning 13 of their first 18 games. As expected, Toronto went backwards, going 62-82 the rest of the way to finish at 75-87. The centerpiece of the team, Roy Halladay, put together a 17-10 season despite missing two weeks with a groin injury in mid-June. The Jays weren't bad offensively, ranking in the top half of the AL in most categories including batting average, runs, slugging, and OPS. The two power hitters in the lineup came from unexpected sources, as Adam Lind and Aaron Hill combined to knock out 71 homers.
Season Outlook: With the departure of Halladay to Philadelphia, the Jays will no doubt struggle in this stacked division. Toronto still has the core of its lineup with Marco Scutaro being the only everyday player not returning after he signed with Boston. Ricky Romero will be the ace of this staff with Halladay gone, but the rotation will have to improve if they want to have any shot at a postseason berth. Similarly to Baltimore, Toronto has to dust up on its 26-46 record against division opponents, which will be no easy task for Cito Gaston's club.
Projected Rotation: Ricky Romero (13-9, 4.30), Shaun Marcum (9-7, 3.39), Brandon Morrow (2-4, 4.39), Brett Cecil (7-4, 5.30), Scott Richmond (5-4, 5.11)
Projected Closer: Jason Frasor (7-3, 2.50, 11 saves)
Key Acquisitions: C John Buck (Royals), P Brandon Morrow (Mariners), P Kevin Gregg (Cubs), P Dana Eveland (Athletics), C Jose Molina (Yankees)
Key Losses: P Roy Halladay (Phillies), SS Marco Scutaro (Red Sox), OF Kevin Millar (Cubs), P Brandon League (Mariners)
Trends to Watch: The Blue Jays have struggled over the years against southpaws, and last season was no exception, finishing 9-15 on the road against lefties. Toronto started 2-9 last season after a game in which it scored one run or less, but won seven of its final nine in that situation to wrap up the season.
Future Odds: 50/1 to win AL Pennant, according to Sportsbook.com.
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