AL East Projections
Nelly's Sportsline
Rightfully so, most baseball conversation starts in the American League East. This division is again loaded with the defending World Series champions plus strong contenders with the Red Sox and Rays. While Toronto may be taking a step back the Orioles could be a team on the rise if they can survive the grueling schedule. Here is a look at the team projections in the AL East for 2010.
Yankees Forecast: 95.5 WINS - Under
The Yankees made all the right moves last season as their two aces led the team to the World Series title and a MLB best regular season record. While the moves were not as evident this off-season, there are a few changes, notably Curtis Granderson added in center field and the departure of mainstays Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui. Javier Vazquez is also back in the Bronx despite limited success in his first stay with the team. The fifth starting spot is still a big question mark for the Yankees but there are capable candidates, notably Phil Hughes and Sergio Mitre, as well as Joba Chamberlain. With Mariano Rivera coming off a great year the Yankees have an advantage in the bullpen that few teams come close to matching and the lineup is still incredibly potent. The Yankees really do not have any glaring weaknesses but the outfield likely will not match the power production of last season and whoever takes the rotation spot will take away from the depth of the bullpen. Boston and Tampa Bay will be formidable in this division so the Yankees are no lock to repeat but this certainly still looks like a strong playoff contender and a team that will thrive barring a major injury. While C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett had good years last season, both are capable of even better numbers and it will be interesting to see how this team reacts after reaching the top.
Red Sox Forecast: 94.5 WINS - No Play
Boston made some interesting moves in the off-season and the emphasis is clear on defense. Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre, and Marco Scutaro can all hit, but they really bring an upgrade defensively for the Red Sox. This will be a veteran team that is also going to feature strong starting pitching with former Angels ace John Lackey added and Daisuke Matsuzaka likely able to contribute more this season after missing most of 2009. The lineup lacks flash but this is solid team that likely will be able to avoid some of the slumps that the team hit last season. The bullpen also should remain one of the better units in baseball and this is a thoughtfully designed team that could have great success. This is an aging team so injuries could play a role at some point and bridging the gap with the Yankees will not be easy. The Yankees still appear to have a slight edge in the division but Boston is not far behind and this organization does not make a lot of mistakes so the move towards defense is likely to pay off. If healthy and on top of its game, the rotation could be the best in baseball even without clarity in the #5 spot at this point. Boston is most likely looking at another wild card run but the gap, like last season, is certainly not insurmountable.
Rays Forecast: 89.5 WINS - Over
Keeping up in the AL East is very difficult and although the Rays won 84 games last season they could not come close to a playoff spot. The biggest difference was a slight decrease in the performance of the pitching staff, notably in the bullpen. The lineup should remain very productive and Rafael Soriano moves into the closing role after a lot of success in various relieving roles in Atlanta, though Soriano has not had sustained success as a closer. A lot of pressure will be on David Price to take the next step in his development and Wade Davis is slated to be the fifth starter for the Rays. Banking on another strong season from Jeff Niemann might have some risk but James Shields and Matt Garza both are capable of much better numbers than in 2009. The bullpen still has a few unproven pieces and the lineup will need to sort through a number of quality players that were acquired such as Hank Blalock, as it will not be easy to find at-bats to go around. The Rays now have two quality catchers with the addition of Kelly Shoppach and getting one to step up after long stretches of inconsistency could be a difference maker for this team. This team is likely better than the '08 team that won the division but New York and Boston continue to look very tough.
Orioles Forecast: 74.5 WINS - Over
Baltimore appears to have addressed its biggest problems after featuring the worst rotation in baseball last season. Kevin Millwood moves in at the top of the rotation and the pitching staff is likely to get solid run support this season as well. Baltimore will still count on several young pitchers to contribute including Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman who both showed flashes of brilliance last season. The bullpen has a lot of potential with Cla Meredith and Mike Gonzalez added to the mix but in reality this team will have a very tough time staying competitive in this division. Young stars in the making fill the outfield with Nolan Reimold joining Adam Jones and Nick Markakis and adding veterans Garrett Atkins and Miguel Tejada in the infield should provide a positive result. A lot of weight will be on catching phenom Matt Wieters after an encouraging rookie season and even a best case scenario for this team likely does not involve the playoffs. Getting the Orioles back above 70 wins is a strong possibility but ultimately this team has been one of the least profitable in baseball over the last five years and not enough has changed with the pitching staff to expect a big move.
Blue Jays Forecast: 70.5 WINS - Under
The Blue Jays are in a very tough situation as they were forced to dump off a few big pieces, most notably long time ace Roy Halladay. There is some promising talent in the rotation with a group of lefthanders that has shown potential but there is not enough stability to take on the wear that playing in this division will take. Brandon Morrow joins the team from Seattle but Morrow has not proven to be a capable starter and banking on Shaun Marcum to return to form is a serious risk. There are plenty of talented young pitchers in the organization but it is not clear that there are enough that are ready now. The bullpen also has several veterans in the mix but none with crystal clean resumes of success in those roles. The pen is also likely to see a lot of innings as the arms of the young starters will need to be protected. This certainly looks like the worst offensive team in this division and with Aaron Hill and Adam Lind having breakout seasons last year the production will be tough to match. This is truly a complete rebuild for the Jays despite a few veterans still in the lineup and don't be surprised if the few working parts of the team get shipped off for more prospects at some point once the dire situation in the AL East is fully realized.