AL Futures Analysis - Post-deadline
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Last week, we took a glimpse at the major league pre-trade deadline futures, marveling at how many teams had decisions to make regarding how seriously they planned on pursuing the postseason. The Blue Jays, Royals and Astros were buyers, indecisive Detroit wound up selling and the Yankees, Orioles, and Padres essentially stayed put.
All but four of the American League's teams entered the week with 50 or more wins, so there is a ton of meaningful baseball left since all of those teams can legitimately believe they're only a hot streak away from knocking on the postseason door. Even though there's still some movement still ahead via waivers, we can now bet futures confidently now that we know every team's personnel going forward.
Odds to win the AL and NL pennants as well as the World Series have been updated at numerous shops, so below are our post-trade deadline recommendations for the American League. Find the National League here. (Odds via 5Dimes)
Baltimore (+1350 to win AL, +3000 to win it all): They weren't all fancy and cut-throat about it like Toronto, but the Orioles did reinforce their playoff push by adding Gerardo Parra as a significant outfield upgrade. He'll bat second and can play left or right at an extremely high level. Questions about their pitching remain, but the Birds have scored at least six runs in four of their last five and got their critical West Coast road swing off on the right foot with a rout in Oakland. Baltimore has seven September dates against the Jays, so that should be how its fortunes are decided.
Boston (+6000 to win AL, +15000 to win it all): Books had a dramatic change of heart on the Red Sox. They didn't do much, trading Shane Victorino and making no additions, but the plug appears to have been pulled on a late resurgence. Entering deadline week, odds were still a rather conservative +2500 and +5000, but these new numbers come off like a carrot is being dangled for anyone who wants to thow away money on the miracle Sox. Flushing money down the toilet would serve the same purpose as backing this bunch.
Chi.Sox (+2400 to win AL, +5500 to win it all): A small surge saw their odds reworked from the +4000 and +10000 that were available last week, but this team remains a long shot and made no moves at the trade deadline. Chris Sale hasn't gotten the support from Jeff Samardzija to make the top of the rotation as formidable as the White Sox hoped it would be. Jose Quintana hasn't taken another step forward. Offensively, Jose Abreu hasn't gotten enough help. This team has too many holes to legitimately get behind despite the enticing odds.
Cleveland (+2800 to win AL, +6600 to win it all): The Tribe (+1900, +3500 last week) has been written off. Rebuilding on the run as young players like Giovanny Urshela and Francisco Lindor gain valuable experience, the Indians aren't worth backing.
Detroit (+2200 to win AL, +5000 to win it all): The decision to trade David Price and Yoenis Cespedes for young prospects was the right one. Disappointing all season, the Tigers had too many holes to try and use Miguel Cabrera's expected return in a few weeks as a rallying point. They'll be playing spoiler this year instead.
Houston (+665 to win AL, +1500 to win it all): Since they've lost at least 90 games in each of the last seven seasons, it probably shouldn't come as a surprise that the Astros are really going for it. Nope, no one expected this. Too young. A history of ineptitude. Wins in 11 of the first 15 games coming out of the All-Star break has this team looking like a contender. 20-year-old shortstop Carlos Correa looks like the game's next great star, Jed Lowrie is back to play third base and Carlos Gomez should help create a spark as the team's center fielder. The talent is there. The bullpen, one of the best in baseball, is worth backing. New additions Scott Kazmir and Mike Fiers fill out the rotation behind ace Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh, so there's enough depth to hang on and finish this breakthrough season. They likely will run out of gas at some point, but it will be fun to watch the ride while it lasts.
Kansas City (+250 to win AL, +550 to win it all): The Royals have emerged as the clear favorite in the AL and, odds-wise, are second to only the Cardinals to win the World Series. Adding Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist were strokes of brilliance that supply KC with the finishing touches to a championship team. They'll get Alex Gordon back very soon. If Yordano Ventura, Edinson Volquez, Danny Duffy and Chris Young remain consistent, and get to one of baseball's best bullpens is certainly capable of hanging on to the cushion they've built atop the AL. If they end up with home field throughout the postseason, the Royals are the team to beat.
LA Angels (+625 to win AL, +1400 to win it all): With CJ Wilson on the DL and Jered Weaver coming off only his first rehab start as he returns from a hip injury, the Angels failing to acquire an arm at the deadline looks like a massive setback. David DeJesus, David Murphy and Shane Victorino improve Mike Sciocia's offensive options, but this group is still overly reliant on the brilliance of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. Despite the enticing odds, there doesn't appear to be enough here.
NY Yankees (+450 to win AL, +1050 to win it all): This is a terrible time to invest in the Yanks. Despite not coming up with another ace like Price or a closer like Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel, oddsmakers got stingier on the payoff. Since Michael Pineda has landed on the DL and the offense is bound to cool off at some point, there's going to be a time in the next few weeks where the much-improved Blue Jays or the plucky Orioles narrow the gap in the AL East. If you believe the Bronx Bombers have enough to shockingly win a pennant the year after Derek Jeter retires, there's going to be a much more lucrative opportunity than the current one to pounce on. Realistically, Dallin Betances and Andrew Miller could've really used another partner to help shorten games. GM Brian Cashman, to his credit, went hard after Kimbrel, but couldn't get a deal done.
Oakland (+10000 to win AL, +26000 to win it all): Stick a fork in this team. The books have. The A's were at +3700 and +9000 last week, but Billy Beane selling off assets and cutting his losses on a lost season forced the books to adjust aggressively. Selling off Zobrist, Kazmir and Tyler Clippard sealed the deal. There's no reason to invest any energy in the AL team that beat everyone else to 60 losses.
Seattle (+5500 to win AL, +13500 to win it all): A double-digit win streak would only get the disappointing Mariners to about .500, so there's not a lot to be hopeful about here. Still, with Felix Hernandez anchoring a rotation featuring talented arms like Hisashi Iwakuma, Mike Montgomery and Taijuan Walker, the Mariners probably do have a run in them. It isn't likely to be enough, but since James Paxton returning in September might make things interesting if the Mariners are able to hang around, this is the team to back if you're looking to irrationally chase a big payday. Among the current true longshots, this would be the only one to get behind since the odds are so juicy and the remaining schedule appears manageable.
Tampa Bay (+2200 to win AL, +5000 to win it all): A solid bullpen and some promising young bats have kept the Rays in contention, especially with ace Chris Archer emerging as a Cy Young candidate. That said, a losing home record and a lineup filled with guys who have no proven track record performing when the competition intensifies makes this a team to fade.
Texas (+3300 to win AL, +8000 to win it all): The Rangers have made a late push that certainly got the attention of the books, who were offering +4500/+13500 odds last week. Back near .500 and with more games remaining in Arlington than any team in baseball has left in their own park, there's still some life in this group. Although they have baseball's worst winning percentage at home, Cole Hamels is on board and Derek Holland should return from the DL later this month. Texas will play the spoiler role well, but a postseason berth seems far-fetched.
Toronto (+625 to win AL, +1400 to win it all): Hope you were able to take a shot at +1300/+3300 that were available last week, because those odds will never be seen again for this bunch. At .500 through 100 games, the Blue Jays have gone on a run after landing Price, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Revere in addition to relievers LaTroy Hawkins and Mark Lowe. They're going for it. Of Toronto's next 13 games, 10 will be at home, so this surge should continue since their schedule looks quite friendly. Armed with the best top-six of any batting order in the sport, the Jays are going to outscore a lot of people and should be a factor in the chase for both the division crown and the Wild Card race.
NL Futures Analysis - Post-deadline
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Last week, we took a glimpse at the major league pre-trade deadline futures, marveling at how many teams had decisions to make regarding how seriously they planned on pursuing the postseason. The Blue Jays, Royals and Astros were buyers, indecisive Detroit wound up selling and the Yankees, Orioles, and Padres essentially stayed put.
Less than half of the National’s teams are above .500., yet the Padres clung to their assets in the hopes of an unlikely run at the postseason. San Diego and Arizona opened Monday’s action 6.5 games back of the second Wild Card, and even though there’s still some movement still ahead via waivers, we can now bet futures confidently now that we know every team's personnel going forward.
Odds to win the AL and NL pennants as well as the World Series have been updated at numerous shops, so below are our post-trade deadline recommendations for the National League. Find the American League here. (Odds via 5Dimes)
Arizona (+8000 to win NL, +20000 to win it all): While Paul Goldschmidt is having an MVP-type season, the Diamondbacks look like a team whose current ceiling is .500. They were on the verge of getting there over the weekend in Houston but dropped the final two games to lose the series and snap a six-game winning streak. Considering the Snakes won 64 games last year in finishing with baseball’s worst record, shooting for the stars and topping 80 would be an impressive improvement. That won’t make the playoffs though. Odds moved from +12000 and +23000, but even if they had stayed put at those figures, Arizona wouldn’t be worth backing.
Atlanta (+9500 to win NL, +25000 to win it all): The Braves knew coming into the season that they were rebuilding and have actually performed far better than expected, entering the week just 10 games under .500. Even with Freddie Freeman back, this offense would struggle to do enough damage to win your Tuesday night softball league.
Chi.Cubs (+1225 to win NL, +2500 to win it all): Despite falling well behind the Cardinals and Pirates, the Cubs have realistic aspirations of making their first postseason since 2008. Including the Bartman game, they’ve lost eight straight and this year’s best-case scenario likely offers one crack to snap that nasty streak and advance in a one-game playoff. You’ll either hear they’re too young or so young they’re bullet-proof, depending on the results. Adding Dan Haren and Tommy Hunter to bolster the pitching didn’t move the needle much, so even if Joe Maddon’s team is going to be short on ammo even if they manage to extend their season.
Cincinnati (+18500 to win NL, +50000 to win it all): Selling off Johnny Cueto was your cue to check out here, even though the Reds did enter the season with a talent base that should’ve produced more victories than they’ve managed. Closer Aroldis Chapman and slugger Jay Bruce were coveted by contenders but remained in place, while Mike Leakewas moved to the Giants. Manager Brian Price should be on a short leash going forward for failing to get more out of this group.
Colorado (+30000 to win NL, +85000 to win it all): Last year’s Rockies won 66 games due to massive injuries. This year’s team barely got going and has often appeared disinterested despite the usual gaudy offensive numbers. They moved All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto for Jose Reyes and prospects, ultimately choosing to keep Reyes for now. Carlos Gonzalez too. This will be an interesting team to watch since they appear to be retooling on the run, but there’s obviously no value in chasing what would be an astronomical payoff this season.
LA Dodgers (+335 to win NL, +700 to win it all): Despite picking up starters Alex Wood and Mat Latos to round out the rotation, their odds barely moved, which tells you books were protecting themselves against the possible acquisition of David Price or Cole Hamels, who ended up in Toronto and Texas, respectively. The brilliance of starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke are still worth backing, but there are still questions that remained unanswered. Flammable Jim Johnson and lefty Luis Avilan joined the shaky bullpen. Michael Morse as an offensive reinforcement is yawn-worthy. The hope now is that Yasiel Puig finds his groove in order to hold off rival San Francisco.
Miami (+18500 to win NL, +50000 to win it all): Since Jose Fernandez, Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon have all missed significant time, the Marlins never had a chance this season. The Fish could play a spoiler role in September despite trading a few of their assets to NL contenders, but they have no chance at making the playoffs.
Milwaukee (+70000 to win NL, +200000 to win it all): Oddsmakers were still protecting themselves entering deadline week, but after the Brewers moved outfielders Carlos Gomez and Gerardo Parra in addition to pitchers Mike Fiers and Jonathan Broxton, their numbers skyrocketed. Starting 4-17 effectively ended their season early.
NY Mets (+1075 to win NL, +2400 to win it all): After sweeping the Nats to even the NL East over the weekend, it’s definitely tempting to take a shot on those wonderful Mets arms. They added Jose Uribe and Kelly Johnson in underwhelming moves, but went for it in dealing highly-regarded pitching prospects Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa to acquire Yoenis Cespedes. He’s the kind of hitter who makes everyone in the lineup better merely via his presence, so since David Wright should be back at some point, the anemic offense that has cost this team so many games likely won’t be such a detriment going forward. Tyler Clippard joining the bullpen should also help, so if you want to back a long shot, the payoff isn’t likely to get much better.
Pittsburgh (+675 to win NL, +1400 to win it all): If Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano and AJ Burnett can get into October without wearing down, there’s enough pitching to take a shot here, especially with Cole around to trust in a one-and-done Wild Card. Of course, Burnett just went on the DL with elbow inflammation and the 38-year-old doesn’t feel it’s a problem that will go away. They added lefty starter J.A. Happ and elite reliever Joakim Soria to edge the bullpen, so there’s enough here to hold on to the top Wild Card. They won 3-of-4 against the Cardinals and Nationals in July, not to mention sweeping the Padres. It’s time to hop on the bandwagon if you’re going to.
San Diego (+3500 to win NL, +8000 to win it all): GM A.J. Preller unexpectedly held on to all his major potential trade pieces, so books re-adjusted significantly since these odds were at +5500 and +21000 just last week due to the anticipated fire sale of guys like James Shields, Craig Kimbrel and Justin Upton. They’re not necessarily through yet, but need to win at nearly a 70 percent clip to overcome a lethargic season thus far. There’s no way to seriously expect the Padres to play well enough to overcome the teams already in front of them. Fairy tale endings are nice, but irrational to consider given what we’ve seen thus far from this bunch of underachievers.
San Francisco (+750 to win NL, +1500 to win it all): Following wins in 13 of 14 games, the defending champs looked like they were going to run away and hide, but enter a week’s worth of road games against the Braves and Cubs as losers of three of four. They’re right on the Dodgers heels and still have a number of intangibles in play, including Madison Bumgarner to pitch a potential Wild Card game. Adding Cincinnati’s Leake to help strengthen the rotation with Tim Hudson on the DL can only help. Take advantage of these odds while your still can. They’re not likely to be this friendly much longer.
St. Louis (+280 to win NL, +500 to win it all): Because the Dodgers failed to make a major splash, oddsmakers have now installed the Cardinals, armed with the best record in baseball, as NL favorites. They’ve got a substantial lead for home field advantage in the National League, but there are certainly questions about their starting rotation since they didn’t replace Adam Wainwright. Although John Lackey, Carlos Martinez, Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha can hold the fort down, there are enough question marks to resist riding with the Redbirds. They’ve added Broxton and Steve Cishek to the bullpen and picked up another bat in Brandon Moss, but I’d wait to see if there’s not a more lucrative payoff available in the coming weeks if they hit a rough patch. At the moment, having the best record in baseball in spite of a few glaring question marks doesn’t make for a good buy.
Washington (+390 to win NL, +800 to win it all): Ace Max Scherzer has done his part in anchoring a rotation that was expected to be baseball’s deepest and most formidable, but only Jordan Zimmermann has joined him in being consistent. Doug Fister, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez have all had their issues, as has the bullpen. Fortunately, Fister and Gonzalez has picked up their level and Jonathan Papelbon came on board to close, instantly making Drew Storen one of baseball’s premier set-up men. Both the defense and the bats have also had moments that haven’t inspired confidence, though it will help that Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman both returned to the lineup to provide better protection for standout Bryce Harper. Playing in baseball’s weakest division lends itself nicely to ensuring the Nats will make the playoffs, but nothing Matt Williams has done as a manager leads you to believe he can lead this team to the top.