AL Pitching Rotations
By Kevin Rogers
With pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training this month, Major League Baseball is right around the corner. From the betting perspective, it's time to get back on the diamond and prepare for the 2011 season as football is now in the rear-view mirror. Let's take a look at all 14 starting rotations in the American League and what to expect for this season.
1) Oakland
Trevor Cahill (18-8, 2.97 ERA)
Gio Gonzalez (15-9, 3.23 ERA)
Dallas Braden (11-14, 3.50 ERA)
Brett Anderson (7-6, 2.80 ERA)
Rich Harden (5-5, 5.58 ERA)
Skinny: Even though the A's were not a playoff team, Oakland led the American League in ERA at 3.56, while Cahill and Gonzalez each had career seasons. Braden made news with his perfect game against the Rays in early May, but ultimately went 7-12 in his final 23 starts of the season. Anderson finished the season strong with a 4-0 mark in six outings, while the return of Harden to the Oakland rotation will give the A's some solid experience on the back-end.
2) Boston
Jon Lester (19-9, 3.25 ERA)
Clay Buchholz (17-7, 2.33 ERA)
Josh Beckett (6-6, 5.78 ERA)
John Lackey (14-11, 4.40 ERA)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (9-6, 4.69 ERA)
Skinny: The Red Sox look to be the team to beat in the American League this season thanks to Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez joining the lineup. However, the rotation is still loaded with Lester as the ace and the emergence of Buchholz in 2010. Lackey wasn't sharp in his first season with the Red Sox, but he started with nine wins in his first 12 decisions. The key is if Beckett can return to elite status after a back injury derailed his numbers, even though the former World Series MVP allowed 24 earned runs in five starts against the Yankees.
3) Minnesota
Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA)
Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA)
Scott Baker (12-9, 4.49 ERA)
Kevin Slowey (13-6, 4.45 ERA)
Nick Blackburn (10-12, 5.42 ERA)
Skinny: The staff's home ERA improved by nearly a run with the move from the Metrodome (4.49) to Target Field (3.53), as the Twins wrapped up their second straight division title. Pavano proved to be the backbone of the staff in his first full season with Minnesota, while Liriano is the southpaw to turn to as long as he stays healthy. Baker, Slowey, and Blackburn's numbers at home picked up with the move outdoors, as the offense helped provided plenty of run support for this staff.
4) L.A. Angels
Jered Weaver (13-12, 3.01 ERA)
Dan Haren (12-12, 3.91 ERA)
Ervin Santana (17-10, 3.92 ERA)
Joel Pineiro (10-7, 3.84 ERA)
Scott Kazmir (9-15, 5.94 ERA)
Skinny: The Halos failed to win the AL West for the first time since 2006, but that was more with the offense struggling to score (883 runs in '09, 681 in '10) after Vladimir Guerrero went to Texas and Kendry Morales tore his ACL celebrating a grand slam. Weaver lost a career-high 12 games, but led the AL in strikeouts with 233. Santana won a career-best 17 games, while Haren went 4-0 in his final eight starts after struggling through the first month following his trade from Arizona.
5) Chicago
Mark Buehrle (13-13, 4.28 ERA)
Gavin Floyd (10-13, 4.08 ERA)
John Danks (15-11, 3.72 ERA)
Edwin Jackson (10-12, 4.47 ERA)
Jake Peavy (7-6, 4.63 ERA)
Skinny: The White Sox own potentially one of the more formidable rotations in the American League, but Chicago needs more consistency from the back-end. Jackson's numbers improved following his trade from Arizona as he won four of six decisions with Chicago. Peavy is recovering from a right shoulder injury suffered last July and hopes to ready for Opening Day. Danks was the best pitcher from June 10 to August 10 with an 8-3 record in 12 starts, including nine quality outings.
6) Tampa Bay
David Price (19-6, 2.72 ERA)
James Shields (13-15, 5.18 ERA)
Wade Davis (12-10, 4.07 ERA)
Jeff Niemann (12-8, 4.39 ERA)
Jeremy Hellickson (4-0, 3.47 ERA)
Skinny: The Rays lost Matt Garza to the Cubs, but still own one of the great young arms in the AL with Price's breakout season of 2010. Tampa Bay won 24 of Price's 34 starts, including a 12-4 mark on the road. Shields ranked in the bottom 10 of AL starting pitchers in money (-800), his second straight season finishing below .500 since a 14-8 record in the pennant-winning season of 2008. Keep an eye on Hellickson, who won his first three games as a starter prior to his move to the bullpen over the last two months.
7) Texas
C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35 ERA)
Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72 ERA)
Tommy Hunter (13-4, 3.73 ERA)
Derek Holland (3-4, 4.08 ERA)
Brandon Webb (22-7, 3.30 ERA in '08)
Skinny: The only World Series appearance in Rangers' franchise history was jump-started by the incredible playoff showing by Cliff Lee. With the southpaw off to Philadelphia, the Rangers will count on another lefty to lift them in Wilson, who paced the staff with 15 victories. Wilson turned into the most profitable pitcher in the AL by clearing 12.5 units and a 24-9 team record when he took the mound. Lewis and Hunter proved their worth with solid seasons, while the acquisition of Webb gives the Rangers depth at the back-end as long as the former Cy Young Award winner remains healthy.
8) Seattle
Felix Hernandez (13-12, 2.27 ERA)
Jason Vargas (9-12, 3.78 ERA)
Doug Fister (6-14, 4.11 ERA)
Erik Bedard (5-3, 2.82 ERA in '09)
Lucas French (5-7, 4.83 ERA)
Skinny: Similarly to the Rangers, the Mariners' staff was boosted by Lee's early-season success. Hernandez held down the fort despite a horrific offense, as King Felix claimed his first career Cy Young Award while leading the AL in innings pitched (249.2) and ERA (2.27). There was very little to count on past Hernandez, as Vargas lost his final seven decisions after a 9-5 start. Bedard is working toward a spot in the rotation after missing last season following shoulder surgery. Seattle was the biggest money-burning team in baseball by dropping nearly 37 units, including a 17-40 division record.
9) N.Y. Yankees
CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA)
Phil Hughes (18-8, 4.19 ERA)
A.J. Burnett (10-15, 5.26 ERA)
Ivan Nova (1-2, 4.50 ERA)
Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33 ERA)
Skinny: The Yankees spent a ton of money on pitching two years ago with the signings of Sabathia and Burnett. Sabathia remains an elite pitcher after winning at least 20 games for the first time in his career. Burnett was the worst starting pitcher to back in all of baseball last season with a 13-20 team record, while losing 15.6 units. Hughes turned into a strong number two starter with a career-high 18 victories, but the loss of Andy Pettitte to retirement hurts the Yankees in October.
10) Toronto
Ricky Romero (14-9, 3.73 ERA)
Brett Cecil (15-7, 4.22 ERA)
Brandon Morrow (10-7, 4.49 ERA)
Kyle Drabek (0-3, 4.76 ERA)
Jesse Litsch (1-5, 5.79 ERA)
Skinny:The Blue Jays held their own last season despite the loss of Roy Halladay to the Phillies. Southpaws Romero and Cecil combined to win 29 games, while Cecil cleared nearly 11 units for bettors. Morrow had a decent season in his first as a starter, as the former Mariner struck out a career-best 17 in a one-hit shutout of the Rays in early August. There are hopes that Drabek can step up this season after losing all three of his starts last season, while allowing three earned runs in each outing.
11) Detroit
Justin Verlander (18-9, 3.37 ERA)
Max Scherzer (12-11, 3.50 ERA)
Rick Porcello (10-12, 4.92 ERA)
Brad Penny (3-4, 3.23 ERA)
Phil Coke (7-5, 3.62 ERA)
Skinny: Verlander paced the staff with a 12-3 record at Comerica Park, while going 9-1 during matinee action in 2010. There wasn't a reliable number two in this rotation, as Scherzer went through up-and-down season as the Tigers won only four of his 16 road starts. Porcello spent some time in Triple-A Toledo trying to recapture the magic of his rookie season (14-9, 3.96 ERA), while Penny will pitch for his fifth team since 2008 as the veteran recovers from back injury suffered last season.
12) Cleveland
Fausto Carmona (13-14, 3.77 ERA)
Justin Masterson (6-13, 4.70 ERA)
Mitch Talbot (10-13, 4.41 ERA)
Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 3.83 ERA)
Josh Tomlin (6-4, 4.56 ERA)
Skinny: The Indians aren't expected to do much in a top-heavy AL Central, but Carmona leads this rotation after picking up the most wins in a season since 2007 (19). Masterson owned a solid 3.28 ERA at Progressive Field, while this translated to a 3-5 record at home. Talbot started strong in his rookie season, but only won two of his final nine outings. Carrasco put together quality starts in seven of eight trips to the mound, while delivering at least six innings each time out.
13) Baltimore
Jeremy Guthrie (11-14, 3.83 ERA)
Brian Matusz (10-12, 4.30 ERA)
Justin Duchscherer (2-1, 2.89 ERA)
Chris Tillman (2-5, 5.87 ERA)
Jake Arrieta (6-6, 4.66 ERA)
Skinny: The O's made several key acquisitions to bolster their lineup (Derrek Lee, Vladimir Guerrero, and Mark Reynolds), but the pitching has to improve in the difficult AL East. Guthrie finished with a respectable ERA despite 10 starts against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. Baltimore won 11 of Matusz's final 12 starts of the season, while cashing the 'under' in his last eight outings. Duchscherer came over from Oakland as the two-time All-Star recovers from an elbow injury suffered early last season. Arrieta beat the Yankees twice last season, while also knock off World Series participants San Francisco and Texas on the road.
14) Kansas City
Jeff Francis (4-6, 5.00 ERA)
Luke Hochevar (6-6, 4.81 ERA)
Bruce Chen (12-7, 4.17 ERA)
Kyle Davies (8-12, 5.34 ERA)
Vin Mazzaro (6-8, 4.27 ERA)
Skinny: The Royals owned the worst pitching staff in the AL despite former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke anchoring the staff. Greinke is now in Milwaukee, as the Royals look to re-tool with ex-Rockies' southpaw Jeff Francis. The Vancouver native delivered just three quality starts in his final 11 outings in Colorado, while trying to find the magic of 2007 when he helped lead the Rockies to the World Series. Hochevar, the top selection of the 2006 draft, pitched well the first two months of the season before a strained right elbow derailed his 2010 campaign. Chen finally found a home after bouncing around for most of his career by winning seven of his last nine decisions over August and September.
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