AL West Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo
Covers.com
Can this young and exciting Astros squad take the next step and win their first division title since 2001? They're the favorite, but the incumbent Rangers and a much improved Mariners team will have their say.
Houston Astros (2016: 84-78, -935 units, 73-81-8 O/U)
Division odds: +120
Season win total: 91.5
Why bet the Astros: The Astros have a very explosive offense led by Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer and added some extra pop with Brian McCann, Josh Reddick and Carlos Beltran. The rotation had a surprisingly poor year as the top guys Dallas Keuchel and Colin McHugh were major disappointments but they should get back on track this season. Houston knows how to win, proven in 2015, so it can get back into the hunt.
Why not bet the Astros: While the rotation is prime for a resurgence, last season has to be a concern. Keuchel went from Cy Young to a 4.55 ERA and just nine wins while McHugh has seen his ERA go from 2.73 to 3.89 to 4.34 the last three years. The bullpen ERA of 3.56 was pretty solid but it was a closer-by-committee with Ken Giles coming into the season as the opening day closer. Holding off both Texas and Seattle will be tough.
Season win total pick: Under 91.5
Los Angeles Angels (2016: 74-88, -876 units, 69-83-10 O/U)
Division odds: +950
Season win total: 79.5
Why bet the Angels: Los Angeles can never be overlooked when Mike Trout is around but he does need help and the Angels surely hope Albert Pujols has a couple above average seasons left. They upgrades their defense which can keep them in games if the offense struggles again as a whole. Getting ace Garrett Richards back is huge and Matt Shoemaker was having a great season until he took a line drive to the head.
Why not bet the Angels: While Trout is awesome, he could not carry enough of the offense so there needs to be production elsewhere. The Angels win total has gone from 98 to 85 to 77 the last three years and most of that is due to the offense going backwards. Richards elected for rehab instead of Tommy John surgery so he could be vulnerable to injury again. The farm system is pretty bare giving them little trade opportunities.
Season win total pick: Under 79.5 Wins
Oakland Athletics (2016: 69-93, -1,544 units, 72-84-6 O/U)
Division odds: +2100
Season win total: 73.5
Why bet the Athletics: The A’s have had very poor back-to-back seasons but there is some hope going forward. Starting ace Sonny Gray had a down season but he had a few nagging injuries so he is ready to get back his normal form. The rotation as a whole is pretty solid while the bullpen should be much improved. The offense lacks firepower but the signings of Trevor Plouffe and Matt Joyce definitely help.
Why not bet the Athletics: The lack of a potent offense is a cause for concern. Oakland finished last season dead last in the American League in runs and a major uptick from that does not seem feasible. Gray saw his ERA more than double from 2015 and while the injuries are the main blame, staying healthy is a must. Sean Manaea had a solid season but after that, the rest of the rotation has a lot of questions.
Season win total pick: Over 73.5 Wins
Seattle Mariners (2016: 86-76, +69 units, 80-76-6 O/U)
Division odds: +265
Season win total: 85.5
Why bet the Mariners: Seattle improved by 10 games from 2015 and expectations are to bump that up more this season. The Mariners finished within 10 games of first place for the just the third time in 15 years and they led the division in run differential. They have a solid core on offense with Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager while starter Felix Hernandez is still very solid. The bullpen should be the most improved in the division.
Why not bet the Mariners: The window is closing on Seattle as their main core is getting old. Hernandez finished with a 3.82 ERA which was his highest since 2007 while Cruz and Cano are 36 and 34 respectively. Behind Hernandez is Hisashi Iwakuma who is very solid but is 36. After those two, the remainder of the rotation is weak. They overhauled a lot of their roster in the offseason so coming together as a team is a concern.
Season win total pick: Under 85.5 Wins
Texas Rangers (2016: 95-67, +2,932 units, 79-73-10 O/U)
Division odds: +265
Season win total: 84.5
Why bet the Rangers: Since August 13th, 2015 the Rangers have gone 127-84 which is one of the best marks in baseball. They have their sights set on a third straight division title buoyed by a potent offense and two great starters in Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish. The offense is balanced and possesses power as Texas finished fourth in the American League in runs scored. Finding arms at the bottom of the rotation could put them on top again.
Why not bet the Rangers: The Rangers went 36-11 in one-run games last season and coming close to matching that mark will be next to impossible. They were actually only +8 in run differential which is very average and pitching was to blame. Texas had the second-worst bullpen ERA in the American League at 4.40 and it used 11 different starting pitchers. The bullpen should be better but the starters are the huge concern.,
Season win total pick: Over 84.5 Wins