AL West Projections
Nelly's Sportsline
The American League West may be the smallest division in baseball but there appears to be four viable postseason candidates in this division in what could be one of the more interesting races. All four teams have significant changes from last year, find out which moves will pay off with the 2010 AL West projections.
Angels Forecast: 84.5 WINS - Over
Betting against the Angels in this division would be like betting against the Braves in the late '90s. This is a team that continues to find ways to win in the West. Last season this team survived tragedy and numerous injuries that decimated the pitching staff but still found a way to win 97 games and storm to the front of the division. Gone is ace John Lackey but this is an enviable rotation as Scott Kazmir will be there the whole season and Joel Pineiro delivered impressive results for St. Louis last season. The lineup remains nearly in tact from last season with the exception of losing Chone Figgins at third base and this should also be one of the best defensive teams in the league. Hideki Matsui provides a very solid bat in the middle of the lineup that can replace Vladimir Guerrero and re-signing Bobby Abreu should also pay dividends. Brandon Wood appears to have the first opportunity at third base and he will also provide a bit more power although the speed and defense will likely be downgrades from Figgins. Maicer Izturis is available in the utility role so the Angels should be fine defensively in the infield. The bullpen adds Fernando Rodney who could blossom back in his more comfortable set-up role after mainly struggling closing for Detroit last season. Doubting this team and manager Mike Scioscia has proven to be a fatal mistake.
Rangers Forecast: 84.5 WINS - Over
The Rangers are heading in the right direction with win improvements each of the last three seasons and this season lines up as the breakthrough opportunity, particularly with the Angels projected to take a step back. The lineup is strong top to bottom and features plenty of power, with Vladimir Guerrero stepping into the DH role. Julio Borbon had a promising rookie season and is expected to take over in center field and ultimately this team will go as far as the outfield takes it, meaning Josh Hamilton needs to stay on the field and Nelson Cruz needs to back-up the all-star campaign he had last season. The pitching staff does not look great on paper but Scott Feldman and Tommy Hunter were really solid for the Rangers last season and adding Rich Harden to the team has a great potential upside. Texas has a very solid rotation and a pitching staff that has been built to deal with this ballpark. Texas should be a strong defensive team but the one question mark will be at catcher where Jarrod Saltalamacchia may be too valuable at the plate to keep out of the lineup even through Taylor Teagarden is regarded as the better defensive player. Texas was a far better team in 2009 despite scoring significantly fewer runs than in 2008 and this is a team that appears to be doing things the right way and building a team that is ready for a breakthrough playoff season.
Mariners Forecast: 83.5 WINS - Under
Seattle was a nice surprise last season, improving by 24 wins from 2008 but that was likely a team that greatly overachieved. The expectations are elevated for the Mariners this season but this does not look like a stronger team despite some of big name additions. Cliff Lee was the center piece addition but he essentially will fill the role that Erik Bedard was expected to over the last two seasons. Bedard is back with the team but he is on a long recovery timetable and Lee has had some nagging injury concerns already this spring. Felix Hernandez provides the Mariners with a legitimate ace but the back of the rotation looks problematic with Ian Snell, and likely rookie Doug Fister who saw limited action last season. The bullpen got a surprise career year out of anointed closer David Aardsma but his career track record is a spotty. Chone Figgins was a key signing but the plan appears to have him change positions, which is always easier said than done. Milton Bradley is coming off a disastrous year and his character issues are a risk in the clubhouse and there is a reason he has struggled to find a permanent home. Casey Kotchman and Jack Wilson are solid additions and this should be a competitive team but one that fails to live up to the growing expectations and likely struggles to match last year's win count.
Athletics Forecast: 79.5 WINS - Under
Oakland surprised many with the signing of Ben Sheets and while the former Milwaukee ace did not pitch last season all reports have been very positive regarding his pitching condition. The rest of the rotation has some question marks but there are seven pitchers that started for the A's at some point last season in the mix and in this ballpark it is tough to not post at least decent numbers. Justin Duchscherer is also a former all-star that is returning from injury that should be able contribute on the mound. Oakland has a young but solid bullpen as Andrew Bailey emerged in the closing role last season much like Brad Ziegler did the previous season. With Ryan Sweeney and Coco Crisp, the Oakland outfield has some experience and with Mark Ellis and Kevin Kouzmanoff in the infield there is some stability. Manager Bob Geren will have his work cut out for him with shortstop Cliff Pennington likely starting after just 208 at-bats last season. Overall Oakland does not have the production in the lineup to compete in this division but if the pitching staff holds up this can be a team that flirts with a winning record. Oakland has been remarkably consistent the past three seasons and the expectations are grounded this year which could set the stage for a typical overachieving year for the A's but the risk is that Sheets and any other valuable piece will be dealt mid-season, promising start or not.