ALCS Preview and Pick: Rangers vs. Yankees
By AARON SCHULDINER
Can the Rangers extend their longest postseason run ever or will the mighty Yankees take another step toward championship number 28?
SERIES ODDS: New York Yankees (-170) vs. Texas Rangers (+140)
PITCHING
All indications are that Rangers manager Ron Washington will not use Cliff Lee on three days’ rest, meaning the Yankees won’t face him more than twice in the series. That’s a big break for New York. It also means there’s a huge burden on C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis, neither of whom had any playoff experience before this year’s ALDS.
Wilson, who will start Game 1, is 0-1 with a 5.65 ERA in three starts against the Yankees this season. Lewis will pitch Game 2, followed by Lee and then Tommy Hunter.
Joe Girardi has named A.J. Burnett his Game 4 starter, but we think that plan might change if the Yankees find themselves behind in the series. Burnett hasn’t won since Sept. 1 and is 1-7 in his last eight decisions.
C.C. Sabathia will take the ball in Friday’s series-opener, and Phil Hughes and Andy Pettitte will start Games 2 and 3, although their order hasn’t been determined. Yankee backers breathed a sigh of relief last week when Hughes and Pettitte won Games 2 and 3 against Minnesota, allowing a combined two runs over 14 innings.
Both teams pitched well out of the bullpen during the regular season, but Texas struggled in the first round. Rangers relievers had a 5.27 ERA and allowed opponents to bat .291 in the ALDS, both highs among all eight playoff teams. The AL West champs asked their bullpen to throw almost twice as many innings (13 2/3) as the Yankees did (7) in the ALDS.
Texas has an edge in the rotation, although the gap has narrowed now that Hughes and Pettitte have apparently tightened things up. New York’s bullpen is more rested and has Mariano Rivera at the back end of it.
Edge: Even
OFFENSE
In case you hadn’t noticed, New York’s batting order is flat-out loaded. The Yankees made short work of Twins starting pitching in the first round, hammering Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano and Brian Duensing for 13 runs in 15 innings.
The lineup that scored the most runs in baseball during the regular season is clicking on all cylinders. Ten different Yanks drove in runs in the ALDS, and the team hit .314 en route to its second sweep of Minnesota in two years.
The Rangers brought the thunder in their first playoff series since 1999, hitting eight home runs vs. Tampa Bay. After hitting just nine homers in 391 regular season at-bats, Ian Kinsler found his power stroke, belting three long balls including a ninth-inning shot on Tuesday that put the series away for Texas.
The Rangers’ situational hitting was another matter. They hit .206 with runners on and .231 with runners in scoring position.
The dynamic duo of Vladimir Guerrero and Josh Hamilton hit just .250 against the Yankees in the regular season with 4 RBIs in 52 at-bats. They’ll need to produce if the Rangers are going to pull off the upset.
We don’t like the fact that Yankee hitters haven’t faced competitive pitching since Saturday, but New York has the deepest lineup in the American League, plain and simple. It’s not like Texas can pull a batter like Lance Berkman off its bench for a pinch hit in the ninth inning.
Edge: Yankees
INTANGIBLES
The aura of the Yankees has intimidated its share of unproven playoff teams. Experience favors the Yankees in spades, but we don’t see these Rangers getting rattled – especially not Cliff Lee, who welcomes the opportunity to pitch against New York.
Slight Edge: Yankees
We like the Yankees to take care of the Rangers in six games, although we’d advise them to take care of business and avoid a potential Game 7 meeting with Lee.
Pick: Yankees in six games.