ALDS Preview and Pick: Rangers vs. Rays
By AARON SCHULDINER
It’s must-see television when Cliff Lee and David Price square off on Wednesday afternoon.
SERIES ODDS: Tampa Bay Rays (-139) vs. Texas Rangers (+128)
PITCHING
Wednesday’s tilt between Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18) and David Price (19-6, 2.72) represents the best series-opening pitching matchup of the first round. Lee was 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in five postseason starts last year, but is 0-3 against the Rays this season. Price is 9-2 with a 1.96 ERA at Tropicana Field in 2010.
The Rangers will start C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis in games two and three respectively, while the Rays will counter with Matt Garza and Wade Davis. It’s been a long season for Davis, but he has pitched well down the stretch. In his last five appearances, the 25-year-old right-hander has allowed just eight runs in 28 2-3 innings of work.
Both teams are strong in the bullpen. Rays relievers led the American League with a 3.33 ERA, while the Rangers were second at 3.38. Rafael Soriano has been brilliant at the back of the Rays’ bullpen, recording a league-leading 45 saves in 48 chances. Neftali Feliz has been almost as good for Texas, saving 40 games in 43 tries.Feliz hasn’t allowed a run in his last 16 appearances, a stretch over which he’s surrendered only six hits.
It’s a close call, but we think Lee’s recent postseason success gives them the advantage.
Slight Edge: Rangers
OFFENSE
Speed is the name of the game for the Rays, who rank third in the majors in runs scored despite being last in the American League in batting average (.247). In Carl Crawford and BJ Upton, Tampa Bay has two of the league’s most dangerous threats on the base paths. By themselves, Crawford and Upton combined for more steals (89) than twelve major league teams. With his contract expiring at the end of the season, Carl Crawford could earn himself a boatload of money if his performance in the playoffs is as good as it was in the regular season.
The Rays hope that Evan Longoria’s health isn’t an issue when the playoffs get underway. Longoria hasn’t played since Sept. 23 because of a strained quad. Manager Joe Maddon says that Longoria’s absence was precautionary, but the situation bears watching. Longoria will be in the lineup Wednesday night, but the Rays will really miss his pop if he is limited.
The Rangers have injury worries of their own. AL batting champion Josh Hamilton missed most of September with two broken ribs. Hamilton played in all three games of last weekend’s series against Anaheim. He collected three hits, including his 32nd home run of the season, but admitted feeling some tightness and soreness. Hamilton means as much to the Rangers as Longoria does to the Rays, if not more. If Hamilton’s sore ribs diminish his power at the plate, the Rangers are in trouble.
Vladimir Guerrero was essentially left on the scrap heap in the offseason when Texas signed him to a modest one-year deal with a mutual option for 2011. Guerrero has responded with a huge season, batting .300 with 29 homers and 115 RBI.
Texas excels at putting the ball in play. The Rangers are batting a major league-leading .276 and have the fourth-fewest strikeouts in baseball (986).
We respect Texas’ efficiency up and down the lineup, but Tampa Bay’s speed at the top of its lineup is lethal, especially late in close games, which this series figures to have plenty of.
Slight Edge: Rays
INTANGIBLES
The Rays have more playoff experience, and home field advantage is key considering the Rangers are three games below .500 on the road. Tampa Bay has an advantage in the late innings because of its ability to manufacture runs and its strong bullpen. We think the Rays capitalize on that and win a close series.
Pick: Rays in five games.
Rangers-Rays pitching breakdown
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
The Rangers and Rays open their AL Divisional Series on Wednesday afternoon, when ace left-handers Cliff Lee and David Price take the mound. Tampa Bay has won the past four meetings including a home sweep of Texas in mid-August. Five of the six games this season went Over the total. Here is a breakdown of the pitching matchups.
Game 1 – Wednesday
TEX: CLIFF LEE
12-9, 3.18 ERA in 2010
6 GS, 3-2, 3.86 ERA, .225 Opp. BA at Tropicana Field in career
13 GS, 6-5, 2.87 ERA, .228 Opp. BA career vs. TB
5 GS, 4-0, 1.56 ERA, 0.82 WHIP in postseason career
TB: DAVID PRICE
19-6, 2.72 ERA in 2010
9-2, 1.96 ERA, .206 Opp. BA at Tropicana Field in 2010
4 GS, 0-2, 7.45 ERA, 1.66 WHIP career vs. TEX
5 G, 1-0, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in postseason career
Game 2 – Thursday
TEX: C.J. WILSON
15-8, 3.35 ERA in 2010
5 G, 0-0, 4.50 ERA, .200 Opp. BA at Tropicana Field career
14 G, 1 GS, 2-0, 2.45 ERA, .197 Opp. BA career vs. TB
No postseason appearances
TB: MATT GARZA
15-10, 3.91 ERA in 2010
8-2, 3.51 ERA, .237 Opp. BA at Tropicana Field in 2010
9 GS, 5-3, 3.97 ERA, .224 Opp. BA career vs. TEX
4 GS, 2-1, 3.96 ERA, 1.32 WHIP in postseason career
Game 3 – Saturday
TB: WADE DAVIS
12-10, 4.07 ERA in 2010
1 GS, 3.1 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 2 HR career vs. TEX
No postseason appearances
TEX: COLBY LEWIS
12-13, 3.72 ERA in 2010
6-4, 3.41 ERA, 1.28 WHIP at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington in 2010
3 G, 2 GS, 2-0, 7.71 ERA, .289 Opp. BA career vs. TB
No postseason appearances
ALDS Preview: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
By Lenny Del Genio
It's hard to fathom, but the Tampa Bay Rays are the more playoff-tested team in their American League Division Series as they draw the Texas Rangers, who qualified for the postseason for the first time since 1999. The series price has the Rays -165 on the betting line while the come back has the Rangers at +135 at Sportsbook.com. Tampa Bay won the season series 4-2, including a three-game sweep here in the teams' lone series at Tropicana Field back in August.
The Rays (96-66) clinched home field advantage throughout the American League playoffs on the final day of the regular season by virtue of a 3-2, extra-innings win over Kansas City, coupled with the Yankees' loss in Boston. After clinching no worse than a Wild Card berth with Tuesday's 5-0 win over the Orioles, Tampa would go on to lose five of its final seven games, getting shutout three times and scoring only nine runs in the process.
As mentioned above, Texas is in the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. They clinched the American League West pennant on September 25th and split its final eight games from there on out. In their three previous playoff appearances, the Rangers were eliminated by the Yankees each time, including back to back sweeps in 1998 and 1999. This is one of just three teams never to have made it to a World Series and is the only team in MLB never to have won a postseason series.
Game One of this series takes place Wednesday afternoon and features a fantastic pitching matchup of Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18 ERA) vs. David Lee (19-6, 2.73 ERA), a battle of southpaws. Tampa Bay has opened as a $1.21 favorite on the betting line and the majority of the betting trends do favor the home team here. Price was sensational at home this year with a 12-4 team start record and as a favorite of -125 to -175, his TSR was 11-1. Lee could find it tough sledding against a Rays lineup that has gone 36-19 vs. lefties in 2010 with 5.2 runs scored per game. It's also worth noting that all nine of Price's daytime starts at home this season went Under the total. The betting total for Game 1 has opened at seven runs.
The rest of the pitching matchups go as follows: Game 2 (Thursday) - C.J. Wilson (15-8, 3.35 ERA) vs. Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91 ERA), Game 3 (Saturday) - Wade Davis (12-10, 4.14) vs. Colby Lewis (12-13, 3.72), Game 4 (if neccessary) - James Shields (13-15, 5.18 ERA) vs. Tommy Hunter (13-4, 3.73). Game 5, also if neccessary, would take place next Tuesday.
Rangers' slugger Josh Hamilton is clearly not 100%, which is something to watch out for. He missed 24 games with injured ribs before returning for the final three games of the regular season. He went 3 for 11 with one home run and three RBI's against the Royals.
Totals bettors should pay attention to the fact that Tampa Bay went Under in each of its final eight regular season games. Texas has gone Under in each of its last six playoff games. That being said, five of the six games played between the teams this season have gone Over the total.
This should be a tough series, but we see the Rays winning in five games.