ALDS Preview and Pick: Yankees vs. Twins
By AARON SCHULDINER
The Yankees lead the majors in runs scored, but will shaky starting pitching derail their hopes of a repeat?
SERIES ODDS: New York Yankees (-184) vs. Minnesota Twins (+169)
PITCHING
It’s a safe bet that the Yankees will send C.C. Sabathia to the mound in Wednesday’s series opener. Outside of that, nobody knows exactly what Joe Girardi’s postseason rotation will look like. We suspect it will be a three-man rotation featuring Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, and Phil Hughes, in that order. If so, that’s a dangerous proposition for the defending champs.
After spending two months on the disabled list with a strained groin, Pettitte returned to go 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts down the stretch. He beat the Twins in last year’s ALDS and has a long history of postseason success, but has not looked like himself lately.
The Twins will go with a four-man rotation, headlined by Game 1 starter Francisco Liriano. Liriano has had a big season for Minnesota but is just 1-3 with a 6.98 ERA in his last four starts. He will be followed by Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing, and if a Game 4 is necessary, Nick Blackburn. You can bet Pavano’s reception at Yankee Stadium for Game 2 will be less than friendly. The man dubbed “American Idle” by the New York tabloids made just 26 starts in a four-year stint as a Yankee from 2005-2008.
The incomparable Mariano Rivera gives the Yankees a slight edge in the bullpen. Rivera has blown three saves in his last seven chances, but when the money’s on the line, we still trust him more than any closer in baseball.
The bottom line is that the lack of reliable depth in New York’s rotation should have Yankee backers more than a little nervous.
Edge: Twins
OFFENSE
The Twins’ title hopes took a blow on Monday when they announced that Justin Morneau would not return for the playoffs. Morneau, who has been out since early July with a concussion, had hoped to return in time for a potential ALCS matchup.
While we’d never suggest Minnesota is better off without Morneau, his teammates deserve credit for stepping up in his absence. The Twins averaged 4.7 runs per game with Morneau, but are scoring 5.0 runs per game since his injury. Since the All-Star break, Joe Mauer is batting a torrid .373 and Jim Thome is hitting .313 with 15 homers. Delmon Young’s 54 second-half RBIs are the third-most in the American League.
For the second straight season, the Yankees led the majors in runs per game (5.3). Their lineup is as devastating as it is deep, especially now that Alex Rodriguez has hit his stride. Since Sept. 1, A-Rod is batting .309 and leads the team with 26 RBIs.
This has been a breakout year for Robinson Cano. Cano is hitting .319 on the season and has piled up 29 homers and 109 RBIs, both career highs. He is batting a team-best .322 with runners in scoring position and has played Gold-Glove caliber defense at second base. We think this is the year that Cano, a lifetime .217 postseason hitter, makes his mark in October.
Edge: Yankees
INTANGIBLES
Make no mistake: the aura of the pinstripes can be intimidating. Gardenhire’s teams have played fundamentally sound baseball over the years, but they looked unfocused while being swept by the Yankees last October. In fact, the Yankees are 54-18 against Gardenhire’s Twins since 2002, a disparity we can’t overlook.
Minnesota had a better September than New York, but that doesn’t outweigh the Yankees’ postseason experience.
Edge: Yankees
Pick: Yankees in five games.
ALDS Preview: New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
By Lenny Del Genio
Despite being considered the favorite to win the American League Pennant, the New York Yankees enter the 2010 postseason as the Wild Card entrant and if that wasn't tough enough the defending World Series Champs open the defense of their title by playing at the toughest venue in baseball, Target Field in Minnesota, where the Twins were an AL best 53-28 this season. The series price has the Yankees as $1.80 favorites on the betting line while the Twins, despite the home field edge, are +150 at Sportsbook.com. The Yankees have historically dominated head to head play with Minnesota, winning 20 of 26 prior meetings, including four of six in 2010 (outscored Twins 24-21).
New York entered the final day of the regular season tied with Tampa Bay for first place in the American League East, needing a win and a Rays loss at Kansas City to take home the pennant. Unfortunately, neither event went the way they had hoped. This is their 15th playoff appearance in 16 seasons, but just the fourth time they will be the Wild Card. They went just 29-30 (lost 17 of 26) since August 1st and it was just the third time in franchise history that they were in first place on Labor Day and failed to win the division.
Minnesota was the first team to clinch a postseason berth in the American League, clinching the Central Division on September 21st. They lost eight of their final eleven games after winning their sixth pennant in nine years. This will be the fourth time since 2003 that the Twins will meet the Yankees in the ALDS with New York winning all three prior meetings, going 9-2 overall in individual games. They do not enter the playoffs healthy as 1B Justin Morneau is out with post-concussion symptoms and C Joe Mauer is still recovering from a knee injury.
Game One of the series takes place Wednesday night with a pitching matchup of CC Sabathia (21-7, 3.18 ERA) vs. Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA), a clear edge for the visitors, who have opened as $1.40 favorites on the betting line. Liriano ended the season in poor form with an 0-3 team start record and an 8.10 ERA in his final three outings. The Twins have lost all four of Liriano's career starts vs. New York have lost six straight times to Sabathia dating back to the 2007 season, but did not face the hefty lefty at all this season.
The Yankees have not yet decided who will oppose Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA) in Thursday's Game Two or Brian Duensing in Saturday's Game Three (10-3, 2.62 ERA). Game Four, if neccessary, will be played Sunday in the Bronx with a pitching matchup of Nick Blackburn (10-12, 5.42) vs. AJ Burnett (10-15, 5.62 ERA).
This should be a tough series, but we see the Yankees prevailing in five games.