All-Star Game Best Bets

All-Star Game Best Bets
By Judd Hall

There was a time when Major League Baseball’s All-Star Game was one of the better spectacles of the year. This is where you would see the best players from the National and American Leagues had to offer. While we still see top shelf players, the luster has been taken off this gem due to interleague play, free agency and that nasty little issue with performance enhancing drugs.

The powers that be (also known as Bud Selig) have tried to add some meaning to the contest by awarding home-field advantage for the World Series to the winning club in 2003. That’s helped to a degree, but something is still missing. Perhaps they should let the winning league use as much HGH as possible without any testing for an entire year. Now that would be an incentive.

As far as our gambling needs are concerned, this is always a tough game to gauge. Should back the home league? What about riding the hot side? Is it really worth playing the total?

Here are a few angles to look at before you make your decision at the betting window.

Know your history…

If you’re going to be betting just on what you read in history books, then you’ll be wagering on the National League. In the past 79 installments of the “Midsummer Classic,” the Senior Circuit holds a 40-37-2 edge. But looks can be deceiving.

The majority of the NL’s wins in this game came between 1950 and 1987. During that stretch, the National Leaguers posted a 33-6-1 record. I know you’re thinking my math is a bit off there with 40 games being played in 37 years. But there was a stretch there from 1959 and 1962 that there were two games All-Star Games played (one in each league).

Unfortunately for fans of the Senior Circuit, all they have is the past to look at for glory. The American League has won 11 straight exhibitions, with the tie in 2002 not withstanding.

Let’s talk lines, pitchers…

The good folks at Las Vegas Sports Consultants have installed the American League as a $1.30 road favorite with the total coming in at 9 ½.

That line looks just about right to me, especially when you consider the Junior Circuit’s recent dominance on the field. And it’s no mistake that the visitors are favored here, either. The road team has won six of the last 10 installments.

Of course, that line could fluctuate with whomever is named as the starting pitchers.

The smart money for the National League manager Charlie Manuel is to send San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum out to start. The Giants’ young right-hander has been sensational in his recent starts, allowing no more than three hits in each of his last three starts. Plus, Lincecum last pitched on July 9…that should keep him close to his regular schedule.

On the American League side, it is a much different story. Joe Maddon has several options for a starting pitcher, but nothing clear cut. Boston has two starters to choose from in staff ace Josh Beckett and knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. The slight edge goes to the Blue Jays’ ace Roy Halladay. He may have lost his last four starts, but he also falls under the same rotation spot as Lincecum.

Ballpark numbers…

Even though this is a home park for some of the players on the teams, All-Star venues are largely neutral. Despite the non-partisan crowds, we can figure out a little something to wager on when it comes to totals.

The easiest thing for gamblers to look at is if the scores are either soaring or staying low for the home team.

St. Louis’ Busch Stadium hasn’t been a launching pad during 2009. If you look at batting park factors, the Cardinals’ home turf is yielding .926 runs to rank 21st in Major League Baseball. Anything listed fewer than one run is considered a pitcher’s park. It isn’t a fluke either as the Cards’ new digs have never reached the one run plateau since moving in for the 2006 campaign.

When you take that information into consideration, it makes sense that the ‘under’ has posted a 25-17-2 mark in the Cardinals home games this season. Also, a low score can easily be had given the quality of pitchers on both sides.

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