American League Best Bets
By Nelly's Sportsline
Baseball starts this week and it is an appropriate time to make some predictions for the upcoming season. Last years there were some big surprises with the Giants and Rangers making the World Series. Both were expected to be good teams but few saw that type of run coming. Which teams are capable of making a move in 2011? Here is a quick review of the American League and our best bet for team over/under wins in each division.
AL EAST
Boston made the biggest moves in the off season with the additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez and if healthy this could be the best offense in the game. The Red Sox were rarely healthy last season however and even if the offense delivers the starting rotation is banking on the health of three high mileage veterans that have battled recent injures and a closer that has had many ups and downs. Don't discount the impact of a new catcher as well with Jarrod Saltalamacchia moving in, a highly touted prospect that has not really panned out and has been considered a defensive liability. It was a rather quiet winter in New York minus the Derek Jeter signing saga. The offense is another year older and bigger name additions of Andruw Jones and Russell Martin are not likely to be big impact moves. The Yankees were not able to upgrade their pitching staff and could pay the price in this division of great offenses. The Rays are projected for a move back to the middle of this division but the rotation should be excellent and the offense can still compete. Most seem to believe that Toronto overachieved last season but there is a lot of power in the lineup and while the rotation is very young there is talent and a solid bullpen has been pieced together. Baltimore is an intriguing team after the instant improvement the club made with Buck Showalter. The Orioles made several moves to upgrade the offense but ultimately is putting a lot faith in a few veteran players that had disappointing 2010 seasons. The pitching staff will get beat up in this division and while improvement is likely there is a lot of ground to make up.
BEST BET - TAMPA BAY RAYS OVER 84.5: Don't sleep on the Rays with this number projecting a 12-win decline from last season with the team that had the best record in the AL. A few big names are gone but the offensive numbers are not likely to drop significantly and this should be the best starting rotation in this division. There has been significant turnover in the bullpen but Tampa Bay has done a very good job at developing young relievers and finding gems on the free agent market.
AL CENTRAL
The Twins saw another familiar exit from playoffs last season but with a 94-68 record Minnesota was very successful despite battling a lot of injuries and having a ‘down’ year from Joe Mauer. Minnesota has depth in its starting rotation despite lacking a true ace but the bullpen let several key pieces depart in the off season. Chicago could a have a scary rotation if Jake Peavy ever returns to form but that appears less and less likely. The White Sox also have bullpen questions but this is a formidable lineup that added Adam Dunn as a serious threat at DH. Detroit has been competitive the last two years but has not made up enough ground in this division. Detroit's pitching has some upside potential but Brad Penny and Phil Coke will be experiments. Victor Martinez is a dangerous bat back in the AL Central and the Tigers have some stability in the bullpen that few teams have. Cleveland has plenty of young talent but the Indians were one of the most disappointing teams in the league last year, failing to compete from the get-go. The pitching staff is short on experience especially in the rotation but if a few young arms develop this team may be respectable. The Royals are in familiar territory of having let go of a star player and starting fresh with youth and less than desirable veterans, many of which are coming off major injuries. There were a few bright spots for the Royals last season and this is a team with a decent shot to improve and a have a season more reminiscent of the 2008 season. However the Royals are always a threat to ship away its productive pieces mid-season.
BEST BET - DETROIT TIGERS UNDER 83.5: The Tigers nearly won the division in 2009 and were much more competitive than most expected last season but outside of Justin Verlander the pitching staff is filled with question marks. Max Scherzer pitched great in stretches last season but Rick Porcello took a big step back. Several relievers return but the bullpen lacks a proven closer and early spring distractions have not helped the cause.
AL WEST
Texas should continue to have very good pitching this season even without Cliff Lee as there are many quality starting options and a wildcard with Brandon Webb possibly taking the mound. The bullpen was a strong point for the Rangers last season and this lineup will still be far and away the best in the division. Adrian Beltre is a nice addition to boost the team on offense and defense and Mike Napoli provides some punch behind the plate. Oakland could have a very strong rotation with Trevor Cahill coming off a great season and a healthy Brian Anderson available. The A's made a few upgrades on offense so this is a sleeper team in the AL as the Rangers are certainly not a lock to repeat in the West. The Angels look to bounce back from a tough 2010 season after a great run of success but the pitching is not as good as it might look on paper and injuries have already been mounting this spring. This is an offense that could really struggle to compete even with a few big names in the lineup. Seattle added a few bats to the lineup after a disastrous 2010 season and a new era for the Mariners begins. This team has no where to go but up and the pitching on this team has a lot of potential. Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young last year but with a little more support he could carry this team and the young rotation actually started to show progress last season despite the record. Erik Bedard is also a threat to emerge at some point.
BEST BET – SEATTLE MARINERS OVER 69.5: The Mariners were horrible last season but injuries and foolish personnel moves played a big role in a poor start to the season that just snowballed. Eric Wedge is a good manager that should get more out of this team and the young rotation should find more success in a division that lacks a lot of big bats.