American League East: Season win total and picks
By Doug Upstone
The Boston Red Sox were not satisfied sitting on the sidelines watching the postseason on television last fall, so general manager Theo Epstein acquired a couple All-Stars bats to bolster the offense.
The New York Yankees were overwhelmed by Texas in the playoffs and their starting pitching places them no better than a wild card team. Tampa Bay cannot draw fans even being one of the top teams in baseball over the past few years and had to cut its payroll (talent).
Toronto and Baltimore have positives attributes; unfortunately they each play 54 games against the top three teams in their division which makes it difficult to move up.
Baltimore Orioles
Last season record: 66-96
Projected season win total: 76.5
Odds to win: +2000
Biggest loss: IN Ty Wigginton
Biggest additions: 3B Mark Reynolds, DH Vladimir Guerrero
Orioles Outlook: After a 2-16 start last season and four months of blunders, Baltimore turned to Buck Showalter as a mid-season managerial replacement. Showalter is known for micro-managing, but that was exactly what Orioles needed and they excelled with 34-23 record to finish the 2010 campaign.
The Baltimore front office blew up last year’s non-productive infield and replaced three of the parts. The left side of the infield will feature sluggers Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy and when the duo takes the field for defense, they will be throwing to 1B Derrick Lee. Second baseman Brian Roberts is still the elixir to the O’s offense even at 35 years old.
The outfield has talent with CF Adam Jones and RF Nick Markakis, and, combined with Felix Pie in leftfield, this should be one of the best defensive outfields in baseball.
Showalter has Jeremy Guthrie as the staff ace and Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta are both highly regarded by baseball scouts. It will be the days this trio doesn’t pitch, coupled with substandard bullpen, which will create difficulties for the Orioles.
Season win total pick: Under
Boston Red Sox
Last season record: 89-73
Projected season win total: 95.5
Odds to win: -152
Biggest losses: 3B Adrian Beltre, C Victor Martinez
Biggest additions: 1B Adrian Gonzalez, OF Carl Crawford
Red Sox Outlook: For most major league teams, winning 89 games is heady stuff. However in the AL East, that sent you home after the regular season last year. Normally, Boston doesn’t look to make a big splash, instead staying the course of building their farm system and compensating the talent on hand. This past off-season Boston went for the jugular, signing Crawford and Gonzalez and last year’s second best offense in the junior circuit appears unstoppable. With Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury paired with their new impressive teammates; opposing pitching coaches won’t get much sleep before a series against Boston.
The starting pitching is part awesome and part ordinary. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are young studs that should have no problems matching last year’s numbers. How good Boston can ultimately become will depend on if Josh Beckett and John Lackey adjust when not having their A-game stuff and can still retire hitters with regularity. Daisuke Matsuzaka remains more unpredictable than Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball.
Jonathan Paplebon showed signs of no longer being a dominant closer and the Red Sox retooled their bullpen accordingly.
Season win total pick: Over
New York Yankees
Last season record: 95-67
Projected season win total: 91.5
Odds to win: +180
Biggest loss: SP Andy Pettitte
Biggest additions: RP Rafael Soriano, Russell Martin
Yankees Outlook: The Bronx Bombers led all of baseball averaging 5.3 runs per game a season ago and may have to match or beat that figure to stay as an AL East contender this year. After C.C. Sabathia and Phil Hughes, the drop-off in starting pitching is like going from Scarlett Johansson to Roseanne Barr; it’s not pretty. New pitching coach Larry Rothschild is in charge of fixing A.J. Burnett both mechanically and psychologically. New York brought in a carload of older free agent pitchers trying to fill the rest of the rotation.
The Yankees have acquired Rafael Soriano as a set-up man for Mariano Rivera, but it would help the entire staff if Joba Chamberlain could return as effective starter.
New York has a number of star players past their prime, yet the collection of Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriquez and Jorge Posada is still better than what most AL teams fill out a lineup card with daily. Robinson Cano would hit third for more than half the teams in baseball, but not with the Yankees, which tells you scoring runs won’t be an issue. Manager Joe Garardi will have greater expectations for Mark Teixeira than a .256 batting average, suffering his lowest on-base percentage (.365) since his rookie year in 2003.
Season win total pick: Over
Tampa Bay Rays
Last season record: 96-66
Projected season win total: 84.5
Odds to win: +800
Biggest losses: SP Matt Garza, OF Carl Crawford
Biggest additions: OF Johnny Damon, DH Manny Ramirez
Rays Outlook: Tampa Bay will raise its second American League East division championship flag to start the season, but in the off-season waved the white flag in a concession that expenses were outweighing profits. The Rays moved seven important pieces from last year’s 96-win club and will refill those positions with less talented replacements. Tampa Bay is not about to return to the days of 60+ wins this season, but will be a shell of its former selves.
Tampa Bay is trying to keep pace with its core players and retool with youngsters. Evan Longoria, enigmatic B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist are now the gritty veterans and they will be surrounded by newcomers like LF Desmond Jennings, SS Reid Brignac and 1B Dan Johnson. Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez will try and maintain the AL’s third-rated offense from last year (4.95 runs per contest).
The Rays felt comfortable enough in trading Garza because pitchers David Price and Wade Davis are stars in the making and the rest of the rotation is sound. The two seasons Tampa Bay won the AL East it had a domineering bullpen, which might be a stretch in 2011.
Season win total pick: Under
Toronto Blue Jays
Last season record: 85-77
Projected season win total: 76.5
Odds to win: +1600
Biggest loss: SP Shawn Marcum, RP Kevin Gregg
Biggest addition: RP Octavio Dotel
Jays Outlook: Toronto has won 85 or more games in three of the last five seasons, which in most divisions has a team playing serious baseball late into September. The Jays are in the unenviable position of being matched with three of the best clubs not only in the American League, but in their division. Last year Toronto decided to come out swinging, literally, leading the big leagues in home runs with 257, which was 46 more than the next closest competitor the Red Sox. (Largest difference in 42 years) If you factor in the Blue Jays pitching staff was fifth in homers allowed at 150, Toronto’s differential between home runs hit and allowed was the widest margin since the fabled 1927 Yankees.
Slugger Jose Bautista takes his 54 home runs over to third base full time. Nobody expects him to match that figure, but the hope is Adam Lind returns to 2009 form, which would make up for the shortfall. Jays’ hitters do not get cheated at the dish.
Shaun Marcum was traded away in the belief that Kyle Drabek is ready to begin long and fruitful career as starter. Toronto is satisfied with the rest of its staff, however having Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch return from their injuries would be a huge plus.
Season win total pick: Over