Astro-nomical Plays
By Judd Hall
There isn’t another division in Major League Baseball that is more up for grabs than National League Central right now. The distance between first and last place is just 7 ½ games right now. And it’s just a 2 ½-game window between first and fourth place. One of the teams surprisingly close to the top is the Astros, who have a shot at making the playoffs for the first time since making the 2005 World Series.
Houston is anchored by hitters like Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada and Hunter Pence. This club ranks eighth amongst all big league teams with a .267 batting average. Yet only Tejada is in the Top 10 in hitting at .327 with 54 runs batted in, which was good enough to get him an invite to the All-Star Game. Although the Astros will be without Berkman as he goes on the disabled list with a strained calf. That means we’ll see Chris Coste take over at first base for the time being.
Even though the ‘Stros have a solid team average, they only average 4.23 runs per game this year…which ranks 21st in the majors. But they pick those runs up when it matters most. They rank 12th with a .263 average with runners in scoring position. When they have RISP and two outs, they are batting .255 with 117 RBI.
The Astros aren’t total slouches on the mound either. The starting rotation is a combined 31-31 this season, but has a respectable 4.16 earned run average. Wandy Rodriguez has been a pleasant surprise this year by going 10-6 with a team starter leading ERA of 2.72. Houston has been a solid play at home when Rodriguez is on the bump as evidenced by an 8-2 record. Unfortunately, we won’t be able to act on that knowledge until early August where he will most likely face the Giants.
Brian Moehler hasn’t had an earth shattering season by going 7-5 with a 4.92 ERA. He has, however, been almost money in the bank when dealing on the road. Houston is 5-2 in the seven games that Moehler has started away from Minute Maid Park in 2009. We’ll get to test that theory on July 31 when he’ll start at Busch Stadium against the Cardinals.
When looking at any baseball team, you want to have some good trends to follow for our betting purposes. Luckily for us, the Astros have a couple stats to keep an eye as the season wears down.
One trend to watch out for is the ‘under’ during day games for the Astros. This club has posted a 16-9 ‘under’ mark in 25 afternoon affairs this season. The only thing better than that numbers is the fact that the ‘under’ has gone 8-1 in nine daytime home tilts 2009.
Another trend to follow is how Houston handles southpaws. For the season, the ‘Stros are just 10-11 against left-handed starters. Yet they are a surprisingly profitable 4-1 in road day games against lefties this year.
Do the Astros have what it takes to win the division? The odds are certainly stacked against them with teams like the Brewers, Cardinals and Cubs all vying for the same spot. And there really isn’t a shot that they can grab the Wild Card since the division winner will have a worse record than them. No matter what happens, this looks like it will be a fun race to watch for the rest of the regular season.
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