Ballpark Beat: AT&T Park
By CHRIS BERNUCCA
You might have a hard time convincing those who had to face Barry Bonds, but AT&T Park has historically been a safe place for pitchers.
The first privately financed Major League ballpark since 1962, the home of the San Francisco Giants has been somewhat of a haven for hurlers since it opened in 2000.
Despite a right field corner of just 309 feet that Bonds often exploited during his quest for the all-time home run record, the outfield brick wall is 24 feet high - a nod to former Giants great Willie Mays, who wore No. 24 - and sharply angles outward to a challenging distance of 421 feet in right-center field.
This area is known as "Triples Alley" and has an impact on the number and type of extra-base hits over the course of a season. In a three-year span from 2004-06, AT&T Park was 22nd in homer home-road differential at minus 18.7 per season. And last year, the venue was last in homers per game at 1.48.
AT&T Park has consistently ranked in the bottom third of the major leagues in home run rate among all ballparks. In 2007, AT&T Park was 24th in home run rate, but sixth in triples and 10th in doubles. Last year, it was 13th in home run rate - its best showing ever - while ranking second in triples and third in two-base hits.
This year, AT&T Park's home run rate of .617 is dead last but ranks ninth in triples and 10th in doubles. (Home run rate is the number of homers hit by both teams in home games divided by the number of homers hit by both teams in road games.)
Ironically, the venue has become less favorable to the pitcher since 2005, when Bonds began a string of three injury-shortened campaigns to end his career. AT&T Park's run rate has moved from 21st in 2005 to 16th in 2006 to 17th in 2007 to 11th in 2008. It ranks 12th this season.
Obviously, other factors were involved, such as San Francisco's pitching staff and the quality of hitters in its lineup. But it seems off that the dropoff by one of the game's greatest run producers led to an increase in run production in his home park.
This is all well and good and makes for interesting discussion. But the bigger question is whether AT&T Park has an established scoring trend that can help the bettor.
The over is 12-12-2 in games at AT&T Park this year, a nice resting point for a ballpark that has been on the seesaw the last several seasons. The over was 43-36-2 last year but 34-44-3 in 2007. It was 41-36-4 in 2006 but 33-42-6 in 2005.
There's less fluctuation but no more of a trend when the Giants hit the road. Over the last three-plus seasons, the over is 129-135-10 when San Francisco is the visitor.
The only discernible trend is the one we have illustrated regarding AT&T Park: The Giants play in significantly lower-scoring games when at home.
This year, San Francisco's home games average 8.096 runs while its road games average 8.172, a difference of 0.076 per game. The differential was .377 in 2008, .327 in 2007 and .487 in 2006.
The latter represents nearly one-half run per game, a hefty difference that - based on the over-under records - the handicappers obviously have taken into account.
The conclusion is that totals bets at AT&T Park are very much like homers to right-center field: There's no gimmes.