Ballpark Beat: Trends From The First Half Of The Season
By CHRIS BERNUCCA
With the All-Star break upon us, it is a great time to take a look at which stadium's over/under records are actually telling the truth.
We often cite statistics known as run rates or home run rates. When the figure is above 1.0, the venue favors the hitter; below 1.0 means the park favors the pitcher.
But before you start blindly betting the over in a so-called hitter's park - or the under where pitchers have the power - there are other factors to consider.
First, while home runs do produce total runs in the quickest fashion, statistical launching pads aren't necessarily high-scoring venues.
U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago is fourth in homer rate at 1.161 but just 22nd in run rate at 0.919. Conversely, Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City is 23rd in homer rate at 0.870 but fourth in run rate at 1.213.
Second, a high run rate isn't an automatic signal to blindly pound the over and expect a return on investment.
For example, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington ranks a solid eighth in run rate at 1.091, but the over is just 16-27 there this year. At the other end of the spectrum, Petco Park is last in run rate and next to last in homer rate - and the under is 21-20.
The lesson: oddsmakers know which parks produce runs and which ones don’t.
What we have for you are the top parks that have played to their rates this season. These stadiums have run rates - and in some cases, homer rates as well - that clearly make them a hitter's haven or a pitcher's paradise. And their over-under records only reinforce their status.
By the way, Busch Stadium, which hosts Monday's Home Run Derby, ranks just 27th with a homer rate of 0.852. That's for games with real pitchers, not high school coaches tossing batting practice.
Hitter's Havens
Chase Field (Arizona Diamondbacks)
The home of the Diamondbacks is an obvious hitter's park, ranking first in run rate at 1.307 and second in homer rate at 1.432. That hasn't helped Arizona, which has a 20-29 home record, second-worst in the majors.
However, it has helped those playing the over, which is 30-18-1 in games at Chase. And you don't have to worry about whether the retractable roof is open or closed.
With the top down at Chase, the over is 17-10. When the roof is closed, it is 13-8-1.
Land Shark Stadium (Florida Marlins)
This is the only venue in the top three that doesn't have a roof. Its run rate of 1.141 stands fifth and its homer rate of 1.091 is a strong seventh.
It also has seen the total eclipsed 25 times in 41 games for a clip of 61 percent, making it one of just two parks providing a return of better than 60 percent on the over.
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome (Minnesota Twins)
One of just two permanent indoor facilities in baseball, the Metrodome has always had a reputation as a hitter's park. It ranks third in run rate (1.256) and eighth in homer rate (1.080) this season.
The over is 27-20 in Twins home games this season, a strong record that won't be impacted by conditions - unless maintenance decides turns up the air conditioning.
Honorable mention to the new Yankee Stadium and its obvious long-ball draft to right field. It is sixth in run rate at 1.127, first in homer rate at 1.566 and has seen the over post a 23-17 mark.
Pitcher's Paradises
U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago White Sox)
The South Side stadium has a high homer rate but does not surrender runs at anywhere the same pace. Its run rate is in the bottom third of the league.
And when it comes to totals, the home of the White Sox has been one of the best plays of the season. The under is 29-14 in Chicago's home games, a return of over 67 percent.
Turner Field (Atlanta Braves)
The home of the Braves is one of the best pitcher's parks in the game with a run rate of 0.908 that ranks 24th and a miniscule homer rate of 0.797 that ranks 28th.
And those numbers mean you don't have to be brave to trust the under at Turner Field. While the Braves are a .500 team straight up at home, the under has been a very solid 24-14-4, or 62 percent.
Minute Maid Park (Houston Astros)
Perhaps no city knows stadium roofing better than Houston, which was home to the original Astrodome and now has two retractable-roof venues - the NFL's Reliant Stadium and Minute Maid Park.
Once known as "Ten-Run Field" for surrendering tons of runs, Minute Maid Park is 12th in homer rate (1.028) but is just 25th in run rate (0.887). And when the roof is closed, the "Juice Box" is a strong under play.
Overall, the under is 26-17-3 at Minute Maid Park. With the roof closed, it is even better at 20-10.
Two other parks to watch for under plays in the second half of the season are Pittsburgh's PNC Park and Cleveland's Progressive Field. The under is 24-14 at PNC Park, which stands in the middle of the pack in run and homer rate. And the under is 24-18 at Progressive Field, which is 27th in run rate and 30th in homer rate.