Baseball Betting Beat
By Doug Upstone
The Houston Astros are not the worst team in baseball or the poorest wager, however do not worry, they have time to still get there. Houston is 13-26, -8.7 units, both good (and bad enough) to rank in the bottom five of Major League baseball.
The Astros could likely be the best play against team at the moment, but somehow they swept the Cardinals near The Arch in St. Louis starting back on May 11 and picked up +6.35 units.
Why is Houston so bad? This is a franchise full of neglect with owner Drayton McLane calling the shots. McLane would not have his millions if he ran his other businesses in the same manner as his baseball franchise.
McLane has always liked to overpay for his own stars, with B to C level talent he thought would help fill seats and maybe help his team win. Free agents like Carlos Lee, Jeff Kent, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens (he of the part-time duty in his days in southeast Texas) all received big contracts, but never produced the type of numbers over the expanse of their deals.
Lance Berkman might be 34, but his deterioration has been in full view for a couple of years for those betting baseball.
The numbers tell the story about the Stros. In the National League they are last in runs scored (2.9), batting average (.228), doubles (51), home runs (20), total bases (408) and on-base percentage (.273).
To understand their ineptitude, compare those numbers to league averages, please understand not the best, just what the average NL team profile looks like. (Thru May 18)
Runs scored (4.5)
Batting average (.256)
Doubles (70)
Home runs (36)
Total bases (536)
On-base percentage (.329)
These are mind-boggling numbers for sports betting aficionados. At the aforementioned date with these number compiled, Houston did not have above average player at ONE field position (excluding pitcher) when it came to adding up these shown figures in the senior circuit, not one.
The Astros play the old-school way like a Kirby Puckett, who went to the dish hacking. One problem they dont have a player of his talent on the roster and rank 15th in pitches taken and dead last in walks with 75. (The Giants are 15th at 118 base on balls by comparison, a 36.5 percent differential)
About the only thing Houston batters dont do a lot of is strikeout (lowest in the NL), but they have so little patience at the plate, they dont give opposing pitchers a chance to send them back to the bench and instead flail away at whatever is pitched.
With the poorest farm system in the big leagues according to Baseball America, one top notch pitcher in Roy Oswalt and two average to slightly above hurlers in Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers, prospects are not good this season will improve. Take away a 9-6 record at present against NL Central partners and the 2010 Astros are 4-20 (-16.6) against the record of the league.
The best way to sum up Houston is compare them to baseballs best team, Tampa Bay, in one category. The Rays are 15-3 in games determined by four or more runs and the Astros are 2-13. You would think Rachel Phelps was running the team. (The Cleveland Indians owner in the movie - Major League)
I wouldnt read too much into the Pittsburgh Pirates hovering just below .500 thus far in 2010. The Bucs have been good underdog wager at 16-21, +6.5 units; however their run differential is -102. That number is higher than last place teams Kansas City and Baltimore combined (-99) and even if Pittsburgh was like a bank and could write off its bad debt, they would still be the worst in baseball tossing away 20-0 meltdown to Milwaukee.
I just love the so-called experts who have fallen in love with saying starting pitching doesnt mean what it used to. They site pitch counts, the lack of complete games and greater dependence on bullpens.
While those points are mildly valid, their reference point is like that of politician selectively choosing quasi-numbers and facts to make a point.
The Los Angeles Dodgers started the year with one of the best offenses in the National League, yet on the morning of May 9 were 13-17 and being written off for their lack of pitching.
Joe Torres starting pitchers finally found a groove and in harmony with those in the bullpen, put together a streak in which they conceded 2.0 runs per game and the Dodgers won nine in a row, while a bit over average in runs scored at 5.5 compared to 5.2 for the season.
What changed was the starters began throwing strikes, which led to more innings of success with lower pitch counts. This helped setup the pen with pitchers in their normal roles of coming in the game in the seventh, eighth or ninth innings, which is their comfort zone and once success was achieved, the confidence swelled among the entire staff.
The days of complete games and high pitch counts are gone; nevertheless if the starting pitcher can take a tie game or lead into the final three innings, most baseball bettors are positioned to earn a victory.