Baseball Comebacks Provide Go-Against Spots
By Jim Feist
With football predictions just around the corner, let us not overlook the rest of the baseball campaign. Nothing is more thrilling in sports than a wild comeback. From football's fourth quarter comeback to force overtime, to the recent baseball playoff comebacks we have seen with the 2002 Angels, 2004 Red Sox and 2006 Cardinals. Dramatic finishes keep fans glued to their seats. One thing to keep in mind as a sports handicapper is that teams that pull off a dramatic rally can sometimes be flat the next game, especially in baseball.
Baseball managers are often forced to use their best relief pitchers when coming back, especially if a game goes extra innings. This can lead to fewer quality options out of the bullpen the next day. Also, the team pulling off the comeback will feel a rush of adrenaline and euphoria. This can lead to a let down the next game, as they could be a bit out of gas.
The Oakland A's had a memorable comeback this month, trailing by 10 runs but rallied to beat Minnesota in a wild 14-13 comeback. The teams played the next night and Oakland lost at home, 3-2, with no offense. I recall a game a few years ago when the Mets came from 4-0 down to eventually win 5-4 as Cubs reliever Michael Wuertz walked three straight batters with two outs in the ninth inning! The Mets were forced to use three of their top relievers in the game in Smith, Feliciano and Heilman. The next night the Mets were a minus-160 home favorite, but lost 10-1 to Chicago. They got out-hit 15-6.
That is the other aspect of comebacks; the team that is saddled with the loss. They can be so fired up for blowing one that they play with extra fire the next night to try and erase the bad loss. That same month the Marlins had a dramatic comeback against the Padres, hitting back-to-back 8th innings home runs to turn a 4-3 potential loss into a thrilling 5-4 win. The next night the Marlins were a home favorite, but lost 7-6.
Another factor to consider is the lineup. If a team is riding a nice win streak, managers often begin to give players a rest and turn to their bench, which is understandable. But a manager riding a 5-game losing streak or off of a frustrating collapse might be more inclined to go with his best players, rather than give a star player the day off. It is important to carefully scan teams, line-ups and situations.
Emotion can be doubled when teams are playing a rivalry game and have a dramatic comeback. Check how the Red Sox and Yankees play AFTER they play each other. During one series two years ago between the AL East rivals, the Red Sox completed an emotional three-game sweep with a stunning 7-6 comeback win. That was the game the Sox turned a 3-0 deficit into a 4-3 lead with home runs by J.D. Drew, Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek all in a row (on 10 pitches). "I have not been part of anything like that, not even in Little League," 3B Lowell said. "The dugout was going crazy."
After that emotional game and sweep, the Sox were a minus-200 home favorite over Toronto the next night, but looked flat in a 7-3 defeat. "It just seemed like it was a lethargic day," Boston catcher Doug Mirabelli said afterward. "There was not the energy that we have had."
This season after taking two straight at New York in May, Boston was pounded 9-2 the next night in Cleveland. You may have heard the old sports axiom. "Losing hurts more than winning feels good." Professional athletes often can't wait to get back on the field after a frustrating, heart-breaking loss to atone for the previous night's sour ending. Other times, teams off thrilling comeback wins can be flat. All of which can make for a potential go-against the next game, for helping with both baseball and football prediction.