Baseball Profits: Under the Microscope
By Scott Rickenbach
Baseball can be a very profitable sport for both the dedicated handicapper as well as the studious bettor. One of the keys in creating and maintaining profits is one that, unfortunately, is often overlooked. This key area that “slips between the cracks” for many casual bettors relates to properly evaluating streaks. Note that the streaks I am speaking of are not the streaks of the teams on the field, rather they are the streaks of the handicappers (or the bettors own selections if not using a handicapper). This all comes back to the extreme importance of the money line in baseball. This important subject is one that must be fully comprehended if a bettor wants to make very significant profits betting baseball.
The key in evaluating baseball profitability comes down to the money lines. There are many handicappers out there that are hitting 45% of their picks and doing a much better job than those that are hitting 55% of their picks. This is where baseball is much different than football or basketball because there is no point spread involved. If this seems rather elementary a quick refresher on how the dollars fall to the bottom line is something a bettor should not overlook. If evaluating a hot streak and a bettor sees that many of the losses are 150, 160, and 170 money line favorites the bettor must note how this impacts the profitability (or lack thereof!) with regards to the streak. Note that if a handicapper (or a bettor) is hitting 60% on the full season but playing all 150 favorites his net profit would be zilch, zero, nada! He’s just breaking even because the juice is eating away at his profits on every loss.
Some handicappers play a lot of underdogs and note the positive impact that this has on your bottom line. If you’re hitting just 40% of your plays but they average out to be 150 dogs you’re at break even. Sounds crazy, right? Breaking even while only picking 40% winners just seems odd. However, it’s the simple power of the positive money line that allows this. Now, certainly I am not saying that there aren’t successful handicappers/bettors out there who play a lot of favorites. What I am saying though is that it is definitely best to “proceed with caution” when evaluating streaks. If you are using a sports service than it’s definitely advisable to find a handicapper whose style you like. Also, make sure you understand more than just his winning percentage in the baseball…you must understand what types of plays he’s giving you.
I originally posted a version of this article last summer. This “new edition” serves as a reminder of the importance of the money line in baseball handicapping. Last season around this time of year (as of action through Saturday July 26, 2008) my baseball record for the month of July was documented at 39-21. That was a 65% run and there was no “fluff” in this record. The reason I say that is because most all of my plays were totals. Of these 60 plays only 6 were sides. That means 90% of my plays were totals. This is no surprise as that is my specialty in baseball but the key point is this: the average line on a total is -110 either way…just like in football or basketball with point spreads. In other words, a 65% streak in baseball that involves plays like this is something that makes a lot of money. Of the 6 side plays released during this streak they went 3-3. The biggest money line favorite I lost had a line, at the time I released the play for that day, of just 119. That’s why a person playing each play for just $100 per play, regardless of the way I rated the play, would have netted roughly $1600 during this long-term documented streak. There was not a big favorite in the bunch.
The point of this article, I assure you, is not to “blow my own horn”. In fact, as I write this on June 19th, 2009 I am coming off of a very tough two day stretch. My Top Plays are still hot (8-1 L9 and 15-5 L20) but my regular plays have featured a number of bad beats. Looking back at 2008, last season saw a huge run from July 1st all the way to the last pitch of the World Series. I fully expect the winning to come in a similar fashion this summer and fall but every day brings new challenges as we all know. So, like I said above, the emphasis here is not on past results! It’s all about the future. That said, the key point here is to best educate all baseball bettors out there as to the pitfalls of following streaky handicappers and/or to best educate baseball bettors in evaluating their own streaks if they’re not using a handicapper.
Make sure you know what you’re getting when you’re “buying into” your own streak or a handicapper’s streak. Also make sure that you understand the impact of money line plays on your bankroll and how totals, underdogs, and small favorites are so much easier on your bankroll than stepping out on a bunch of big favorites. In the long run, you will make a lot more money this summer if you first understand the full magnitude of the money line in baseball. Let’s face it; we’re all looking to build our bankrolls for football season. It will be here before you know it so be very mindful of how to best make money on the diamonds throughout the remainder of this baseball season…your wallet will thank you! As always, best of luck in all your gaming from Scott Rickenbach.