Baseball Service Picks for Wednesday:

Guaranteed Pick: Jimmy The Moose

Game: Washington Nationals at New York Mets Sep 26 2007 7:10PM
Prediction: over
Reason: The over is 11-3 in Washington's last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Nationals have played the over in 7 of their last 9 games. In their last 7 road games the over is 5-1-1. The over is 5-1 in Bacsik's last 6 starts. Washington has played the over in 4 of his last 5 road starts. Over his last 3 starts his ERA is 8.56. New York has played over the total in 9 of their last 10 games. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 games as the favorite. In their last 23 games vs. a team with a losing record the over is 18-5. The teams have played over the total in 7 straight meetings and tonight's game will follow the trend. Play the over

Jeff Benton

Your freebie for Wednesday comes in National League action, as we’ll take the plus money with the feisty Nationals against the fading Mets.

How New York can be laying this kind of number the way it has been playing, not to mention with a rookie pitcher on the bump, is beyond me. After last night’s 10-9 loss the Nationals, the Mets have now lost eight of their last 12, including three of four to Washington. If not for the fact the Phillies have stumbled lately, New York’s postseason hopes would be on life support.

But it’s not just that the Mets are losing, it’s that they’re playing horrible baseball, particularly on the mound. They’ve given up 48 runs during their 1-4 slump against Washington, inlcuding 23 runs in the first two games of this series. Moreover, they’ve allowed six runs or more seven times in their last nine contests. And even before last night’s debacle, New York’s bullpen had posted a 7.11 ERA in its previous 10 games.

And now they’re handing the ball to some kid named Phillip Humber, who has as many major-league starts as you and me combined! In fact, the righthander has pitched just three innings of relief with the Mets, yet here he is starting the biggest game of the Mets’ season against an offense that’s tearing the cover off the baseball.. Talk about throwing someone to the wolves.

Now granted, Washington starter Mike Bacsik – a.k.a. the guy who gave up Bonds’ historic HR #756 – has been putrid of late. But he’s got a live arm, as the Mets well know, as Bacsik beat them 6-2 back on July 27 at Shea Stadium. Also, Washington is 6-3 in the southpaw’s last nine starts.

Add it all up, and the pesky Nationals, who seem to be relishing this spoiler thing, offer incredible value here.

Brandon LANG

5 DIME

Padres -1 1/2 runs - Specify Pitchers - Peavy vs Misch
Blue Jays -1 1/2 runs - Specify Pitchers - Halladay vs Zambrano
Rockies - Specify Pitchers - Fogg vs Lowe
Free Pick - Yankees -1 1/2 runs - (For analysis see Daily video)

Michael Cannon Writeup For Wednesday
Wednesday's Plays...

10 Dime –

BREWERS –1 ½ RUN LINE (Regardless of pitching matchup)
Take the Brewers on the run line tonight over the Cardinals.
Milwaukee has destroyed the Cardinals in winning the first two games of this series, outscoring them 22-6 and hitting six homeruns.
The Brewers are still trying to stay alive in the NL Central race, where they trail the Cubs by two games. Since Chicago is never a lock to come through when it comes to the playoffs, the Brewers still have a legitimate chance here.
They know it, and they know they can’t afford to pussyfoot around with a depleted club like the Cardinals.
Carlos Villanueva will start for the Brew Crew and he’s 2-1 with a 1.55 ERA in five starts this season. The right-hander went 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA in two starts against St. Louis last season.
Take the Brewers on the run line as they bomb the Cardinals once again for the series sweep.

5 Dime –

DIAMONDBACKS (With Hernandez and Morris as listed pitchers)
I had the Diamondbacks as a 20 dime best bet last night for my paying clients and they did me wrong, but I’ve got to stick with them tonight, especially with this pitching matchup.
Livan Hernandez will start for Arizona while Matt Morris gets the nod for the Bucs.
Hernandez is a horse, having gone over 200 innings pitched for the eight consecutive season. He knows what it takes to win the big games and with a division title in sight will hold the Bucs down tonight.
Morris has been awful since being acquired from the Giants, going 2-4 with a 6.71 ERA in 10 starts for Pittsburgh. The right-hander has allowed 13 runs in 7 1-3 innings over his last two starts.
Take the Diamondbacks for the road win as they get to Morris early and often.

REDS (With Gutierrez and Shearn as listed pitchers)
Take the Reds as the home chalk tonight over the Astros.
Cincinnati will start Tom Shearn and the 30-year-old rookie continues to pitch well since his recall from Triple-A on Aug. 26. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 3.94 ERA and had another quality outing in his last start, going six innings and allowing two runs, but didn’t receive a decision in the Reds’ 3-2 loss to the Cubs.
Houston will also start a rookie tonight in Juan Gutierrez, who is making just his third start and seventh appearance overall.
I know Houston has had success against Cincinnati, but this pitching matchup favors the Reds, as Shearn will really try to show management he belongs in their rotation for 2008.
Take the Reds as the home chalk as they grab the win.

Chuck Franklin Wednesday Plays:

1500♦ ARIZONA w/HERNANDEZ over Pittsburgh w/Morris

With last night’s victory the Pirates snapped a nine game losing streak, and now tonight they will go back to their losing ways. The Diamondbacks have won 16 of their last 21 games as a road favorite, and will get another win tonight with Livan Hernandez on the mound. Arizona is 5-1 in his last six starts as a favorite in this price range. The Pirates will counter with Matt Morris, who is 9-11 on the season and is not very impressive of late, going 1-2 with an ERA of 11.48 over his last three starts. Arizona has won nine of the last 12 meetings with Pittsburgh, and will easily get another victory tonight.

1500♦ ATLANTA w/HUDSON over Philadelphia w/Lohse

The Braves are on fire right now, winning eight of their last nine games. Last night they put on a 10 run offensive show, with home runs by Mark Teixeira and Chipper Jones. They still have an outside shot at making it to the postseason, and with Tim Hudson taking the mound tonight I expect them to get a little closer to that possibility by adding another win to their record. Hudson is 16-9 on the season and over his last three games has posted an ERA of only 2.28. The Brave have been winners in 13 of his last 16 starts as the listed favorite. The Phillies will counter with Kyle Lohse, who is a losing 8-12 on the season with an ERA of 8.31 over the past three starts. The Braves’ power hitters will have a field day against this guy. Side with Atlanta in this one.

Always specify pitchers as listed

JIM FEIST BASEBALL 2007 REGULAR SEASON PACKAGE
(913) COL Rockies vs (914) LA Dodgers
Game Starts at September 26 2007 19:10 EST
Take (913) COL Rockies

Stan Sharp | MLB RunLine Triple-Dime Bet
912 MIL -1.5 (+105) BetUS vs 911 STL
Analysis: The Brewers refuse to go away as they try to catch the Cubs. The Brew crew have been pounding the Baseball scoring 22 runs in the last 2 games. Note MILWAUKEE is 20-6 in home games after scoring 9 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. St. Louis has given up 6 or more runs in 6 of their last 9 Games. Blowout Tonight! TAKE MILWAUKEE (-1.5 Runs) as STAN'S PLAYOFF RUN BIG BET OF THE YEAR and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY.

Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness

Game: Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers Sep 26 2007 10:10PM
Prediction: over
Reason: The Rockies are chasing franchise history tonight in LA, as they look to for their 10th consecutive victory in their game with the Dodgers. Colorado won its ninth straight game last night (9-7), matching a franchise record. The Rockies are now tied with Philadelphia and both are one game behind NL wild card leader San Diego with five games remaining. The Rockies have averaged 7.1 RPG during their streak (six of nine games have gone over) and have beaten the Dodgers five straight times, with the last four games sailing over. Let's look at tonight's starters. Derek Lowe of LA has allowed 30 hits and 20 ERs over his last five starts, posting a 6.84 ERA. In 12 career games vs Colorado, he's got a 5.35 ERA. That includes two starts in '07 in which he's allowed 16 hits and 10 ERs in 7.2 innings (11.74 ERA). Josh Fogg of the Rockies had a super three-game stretch from 8.27-9/9 in which he posted a 2.12 ERA but he's lasted just five innings in each of his last two starts (both no-decisions), allowing 13 hits, four walks and seven ERs (6.30 ERA). He's allowed 179 hits in 153 innings on the season, with a 5.06 ERA. In two starts vs LA this year, he's allowed 16 hits and nine ERs for a 6.94 ERA. Why won't this game go over this modest total? NL Total of the Week 15* Col/LA Over.

Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness

Game: Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Sep 26 2007 7:05PM
Prediction: over
Reason: I went over in Santana's last start and cashed and will come right back and go over again. The man who won two of the last three AL Cy Young awards, has struggled through a tough '07. The Twins went 27-7 (plus-$1,669) in his starts LY (best mark in MLB!) but are just 17-15 (minus-$931) in his starts in '07. He's allowed four ERs or more in FIVE of his last six starts, posting an ERA of 5.05 in that six-game stretch. This will be Santana's final start of the year, as he closes out his worst season as a full-time starter. He gave up three homers against Chicago in his last outing, which raised his AL-leading total to 33 HRs this year. The Tigers have been great all year vs lefties, going 27-15 (plus-$1,260) on the season and that includes a 12-5 mark at home, where they've averaged 6.3 RPG. Jair Jurrjens (3-1, 3.90 ERA) goes for Detroit as he tries for his fourth straight winning decision. He allowed four runs and six hits in just 2.1 innings in his last outing, a 5-4 win over Kansas City on Friday. The Tigers need to win-out and also need the Yanks to lose-out, to force a one-game playoff. That's not realistic, so I see the Tigers playing fairly "pressure-free." The low total reflects a Santana in "top-notch form," which he CLEARLY is not! AL Total of the Week 15* Min/Det Over.

Ben Burns

Personal Favorite
LA Dodgers

The Sports Firm

$3750 Club

MLB: Chicago Cubs at Florida Marlins - Cubs(RUNLINE) minus 1.5 runs -105
Handicapper: Baseball Clubs

CappersAccess

ANGELS -120
MARINERS -110

Jeff Benton

2♦ NATIONALS

How New York can be laying this kind of number the way it has been playing, not to mention with a rookie pitcher on the bump, is beyond me. After last night’s 10-9 loss the Nationals, the Mets have now lost eight of their last 12, including three of four to Washington. If not for the fact the Phillies have stumbled lately, New York’s postseason hopes would be on life support. But it’s not just that the Mets are losing, it’s that they’re playing horrible baseball, particularly on the mound. They’ve given up 48 runs during their 1-4 slump against Washington, inlcuding 23 runs in the first two games of this series. Moreover, they’ve allowed six runs or more seven times in their last nine contests. And even before last night’s debacle, New York’s bullpen had posted a 7.11 ERA in its previous 10 games. And now they’re handing the ball to some kid named Phillip Humber, who has as many major-league starts as you and me combined! In fact, the righthander has pitched just three innings of relief with the Mets, yet here he is starting the biggest game of the Mets’ season against an offense that’s tearing the cover off the baseball.. Talk about throwing someone to the wolves. Now granted, Washington starter Mike Bacsik – a.k.a. the guy who gave up Bonds’ historic HR #756 – has been putrid of late. But he’s got a live arm, as the Mets well know, as Bacsik beat them 6-2 back on July 27 at Shea Stadium. Also, Washington is 6-3 in the southpaw’s last nine starts. Add it all up, and the pesky Nationals, who seem to be relishing this spoiler thing, offer incredible value here.

LT Lock
Rockies

Allen Eastman

CINCINNATI REDS

A pair of rookie pitchers--Tom Shearn and Juan Gutierrez square off as the Reds and Astros continue their series. Shearn has been one of the "feel good" stories in MLB this year, posting a 3-0 record and an ERA of 3.95. Pretty good numbers for a 30 year old rookie! Shearn has been Cincinnati's most consistent pitcher since the all star break and he gets my nod tonight.