THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (74-71) at N.Y. Mets (82-62)
The Mets and Braves play the rubber match of their three-game series at Shea Stadium, with New York’s John Maine (14-9, 3.80) scheduled to pitch opposite John Smoltz (13-7, 3.02).
After losing 3-2 on Monday, the Braves came back on Tuesday and cruised to a 13-5 victory, snapping the Mets’ four-game winning streak. Despite last night’s result, the Mets are still on a 9-2 overall run and a 6-2 roll at home, while Atlanta continues to be mired in slumps of 8-13 overall and 4-7 on the road.
The Braves had lost four straight to the Mets before last night’s win, and they now hold a slim 9-8 lead in the season series heading into tonight’s finale.
Smoltz has been outstanding down the stretch, stringing together seven consecutive quality starts in which he’s pitched at least six innings and given up three earned runs or fewer in each contest. His best outing during this run came on Friday against Washington, when he surrendered just one run on one hit and two walks with 10 strikeouts in seven innings, winning 7-1.
Despite that easy win over the Nationals, Atlanta is just 4-5 in Smoltz’s last nine starts (1-3 on the road). For the season, Smoltz is 6-2 with a 3.48 ERA in 14 road starts. Also, the veteran righthander has made five previous starts against the Mets, going 2-1 with a 3.66 ERA, but 0-0 with a 6.00 ERA in two outings at Shea.
Maine got hammered at Cincinnati in his most recent start a week ago, allowing six runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 7-0 loss. It was the fourth time in his last seven starts that Maine gave up six runs in a game. Still, New York is 29-14 in the righthander’s last 43 starts (17-11 this year).
Maine is just 5-6 with a 3.90 ERA in 14 home starts. That includes a 7-6 loss to the Braves in mid-August when he gave up six runs in 5 1/3 innings. However, Maine got revenge three weeks later at Atlanta, allowing one run on three hits in seven innings in a 7-1 win.
The under is 17-10-1 when Smoltz pitches this year, including 7-2-1 in the last 10 overall and 4-0-1 in his last five on the road. On the other hand, the over is 7-2 in Maine’s last nine home starts.
The under is 12-5-1 in New York’s last 18 games, including 6-2 at home. Also, the Braves are on a 7-4 “under” run. Finally, the under is 8-3 in the last 11 series meetings between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
San Diego (78-65) at L.A. Dodgers (75-69)
The Padres will try to put some more distance between themselves and their rivals to the north when they continue their three-game series at Dodger Stadium, with Justin Germano (7-9, 4.38) set toe the rubber for San Diego against Derek Lowe (11-12, 3.80).
San Diego improved to 8-2 in its last 10 games against Los Angeles with Tuesday’s 9-4 victory. Despite going just 3-5 in its last eight games, San Diego continues to lead the N.L. Wild Card race by 2½ games over the Phillies and 3½ over the Dodgers and Rockies.
Los Angeles has lost three of its last four overall and had a four-game home winning streak snapped last night. The Dodgers are still 7-2 in their last nine at Chavez Ravine.
Germano fell victim to the Coors Field Curse on Friday, getting tagged for five runs on six hits in just three innings, as he lost 10-4. That snapped a six-start streak in which the righthander pitched at least five innings and gave up three earned runs or less. San Diego is just 4-11 in Germano’s last 15 starts going back to mid-June.
Germano is 4-3 with a 3.82 ERA in 11 road starts, with San Diego going 1-3 in his four no-decisions. Also, Germano is 0-3 with a 7.16 ERA in four games (three starts) against the Dodgers, including 0-2 with a 4.26 ERA in two starts this year.
Lowe failed to earn a decision in Thursday’s 7-4 win at the Cubs, as he gave up three runs on five hits and five walks in six innings. The Dodgers are 4-1 in Lowe’s last five outings (2-0 at home).
Lowe is just 5-5 with a 3.81 ERA in 12 home starts and 1-1 with a 5.30 ERA in three outings against the Padres. The one victory over San Diego came at home way back in mid-April, when Lowe surrendered just a run on seven hits in eight innings, cruising to a 9-1 victory.
The over is on runs of 7-2-1 for the Dodgers at home, 13-3 for the Padres on the road, 8-3 for San Diego overall, 10-6 in this rivalry, 7-3 when Germano pitches, 8-3-1 when Lowe pitches overall and 3-0 in Lowe’s three starts against the Padres this year.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Stan "the man"
927 NYY (+105) vs 928 TOR
Analysis:
It's not wise to bet against a team on a streak and tonight the Yankees Winners of 6 in a row have been made an underdog to a team that has lost 4 in a row. Yes Mussina has been struggling and only gets a second chance because of injury but even if he struggles he will be on a short leash and would be pulled early as the Yankees need every win to make the Playoffs. TAKE the YANKEES as STAN'S FALSE FAVORITE BIG BET OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY
BIG AL's AMERICAN LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (13-5 Last 18 Here)
Al McMordie has CASHED 13 of 18 here at the Online Store, but his last play was a brutal loss, as SF gave up a 3-run HR with 2 out in the 9th inning on Monday. Today, Big Al looks to rebound and win his 14th of 19 with his American League Total of the Month! Al's dominated Baseball Totals all season and this play will be another EASY WINNER. Go get it.
Price: $15.00
Rangers Under
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: Washington Nationals @ Florida Marlins - Wednesday September 12, 2007 1:05 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) MONEYLINE: Washington Nationals +118 (Normal)
I trust Jon Hanrahan more than Kim of the Marlins. Look past both of these fellas' 5 ERA and one needs to look at Hanrahan's last series of performances. He pitched great against St. Louis, San Fran and Philly, and has had 5 of 7 quality starts and comes off a tough outing against the Braves which he will look to bounce-back from today. Kim had da 13.51 and a 6 ERA outing against the Nationals from last year, and this team is playing far better and is far more potent this year. Both those scores of the games was 14-8 and 11-8 in which the Marlins won. However, Kim is no longer facing Tony Armas, but rather Jon Hanrahan who is a fair amount better in my opinion. These 2 teams went at it yesterday and the game went well over with the Marlins coming out on top. Well, today, this game should go with the side of the Nationals as game 1 did and also go over as well. The Nats have the edge in pitching today, are on a bounce-back and have had prior success against Kim which makes this a solid dog play. The Marlins are 1-6 following a win in their last 7 games, 1-7 in their last 8 as a favorite and the Nats are 5-0 when Hanrahan pitches with this total set meaning that it is going to be high scoring, but he is a shade better for the win.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: Washington Nationals @ Florida Marlins - Wednesday September 12, 2007 1:05 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) TOTAL: Over 10 (-105) (Normal)
I like Hanrahan as a pitcher, but I also like the Marlins to hit him fairly hard as the Nationals are likely to hit Kim harder today. This is in some ways a hedge play as well as I don't think either of these pitchers will be in a pitchers duel given these 2 teams capacity to hit against each other. Much like when the Pirates face the Phillies at home, it is rarely a low-scoring game. Well, much is the same here. Kim has had a track record of poor performances but overs against the Nats, the Marlins picked up their bats yesterday and are likely to still do that today, the over is 4-0 of late when the Nats face this total, the over is 5-1-1 on the road when the Nats face this total and the over is 6-0-2 when the Marlins face this total. I believe this game will go to the Nats, and just as important, the game goes over as well.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants - Wednesday September 12, 2007 10:10 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) RUNLINE: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (108) (Play of the Day)
I had a beat on this game yesterday and as expected Correia held down the diamondbacks. Well, young Sanchez will not be able to hold off this team that has been putting up some runs far more easier than earlier this year. The Dbacks have picked up the bats considerably and their winning streak came to an end yesterday but they will start another one today. Keep in mind, they had won 6 in a row and in fact and have 82 wins on the year. Webb has had great success against the Giants this year pitching 7 scoreless innings, and I simply think that Sanchez will not be able to hold back the dbacks off a loss and Webb should hold down the fort with a questionable Giants offense. Dbacks are 6-1 in their last 7, 7-2 in Webb's last 9 and keep in mind, Sanchez gave up 2 hits in 1 just inning against the dbacks his last time out, so expect him to get rocked a bit today.
THE WUNDERDOG
Game: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Milwaukee +117
Tom Gorzelanny has had a good year for a bad team. It has translated into a 14-7 record. The bad news is when he is left out of the decision the Pirates are 0-7! So overall the Pirates are just 14-14 in his starts. The problem is the pen has coughed up the other seven games. Gorzelanny has also been forced by his success to log a lot of innings. He has reached 178, and that is by far more than he has thrown in the big leagues, and tops his minor league highest total by 50 pitches. The result is his ERA is at it's highest of the season. The Brewers are at their best against LHP, where they have gone 27-21. Dave Bush got off to a slow start, but the Brewers are now 11-6 in his last 17 starts, and Bush is off a game where he allowed eight runs. He has had three other horrible outings this season, where he allowed six runs or more. He has bounced back from a horrible start by posting a 2.70 combined ERA in his next start! The Brewers have been a hot team as they are now 8-3 over their last 11 games. The Pirates are playing out the string, and have only been 5-9 over their last 14. The Brewers claim game 3, and the series.
Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness
Game: Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Sep 12 2007 12:35PM
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
Reason: Milwaukee (74-70) defeated Pittsburgh 6-1 on Tuesday night and the victory, combined with Chicago's 5-4 loss in 11 innings to Houston, moved the Brewers one game ahead of the Cubs in the division race. However, for Milwaukee to increase its division lead, it will need to build off only its 20th win in 61 games all-time at Pittsburgh's PNC Park since it opened in 2001. Dave Bush (11-10, 5.25 ERA) will be making his 100th career start and he sure needs to forget about his 99th! He faced 12 batters in one-plus inning and was ripped for eight runs and nine hits in an 11-4 loss last Friday at Cincinnati. The Brewers were 4-13 in Bush's 17 road starts last year (5.38) and he's struggled again away from home in '07, posting a 6.36 ERA while allowing 102 hits in 75 innings (team is 6-8). Tom Gorzelanny of Pittsburgh is 14-7 with a 3.48 ERA this year but the trouble has been in his no-decisions. The Pirates have lost ALL seven! However, that hasn't been a problem lately, as he owns a decision in SIX of his last seven outings, going 5-1 with a 3.27 ERA while allowing two runs or less in four of them. Milwaukee has gone 21-39 in its last 60 road games and for the entire year, is minus-$1,460 on the road (only the Astros have lost more in away games TY!). What's more, the Brewers are also just 2-7 (minus-$600) when facing a left-handed starter in road day games. Daytime Delight on the Pit Pirates.
Chuck Franklin Wednesday Plays:
1500♦ NY YANKEES w/MUSSINA over Toronto w/McGowan
I gave you a 1500♦ winner with the Yankees last night, and for all the same reasons I'm riding them again tonight. The Bronx Bombers are tearing it up right now, and their surging momentum will carry them right through another victory in Toronto tonight. Their offense is firing on all cylinders; when A-Rod isn't hitting homers then Giambi and Posada are. Tonight Mike Mussina will take a trip to the mound for the Yankees, who are 4-1 in his last five starts as the listed favorite. Mussina has an incredibel 21-11 career record vs. the Blue Jays. Toronto will counter with Dustin McGowan, who is having a decent season but the Blue Jays have lost four of his last five starts as the listed dog. He will be no match for these fired up Yankees, who have won four of the last five games in Toronto.
1500♦ NY METS w/MAINE over Atlanta w/Smoltz
I respect John Smoltz and give him all the credit this veteran ace for the Atlanta Braves deserves, but I am taking the Mets at home tonight with John Maine on the mound. Smoltz is coming off a dominant start vs. the Nationals, in which he nearly pulled off the no-hitter. But the Mets are a much better team than the Nats, and the Braves are only 1-6 in Smoltz's last 7 starts vs. a better than .500 team. Also, the Braves have won only seven of his last 22 games as the listed underdog. The surging Mets have won eight of their last ten games, and with the 14-9 John Maine heading to the mound for them tonight I expect to see another win. Take the Mets at Shea Stadium in this one.
Always specify pitchers as listed