Baseball's Best and Worst Bets From the First Half
By SCOTT COOLEY
At the midway point of the 2010 MLB campaign, there are some major surprises. Teams such as the Reds and Padres, labeled as longshots to start the year, are leading their respective divisions. Expected contenders like the Cubs and Brewers are south of .500.
We’re looking at the best and worst wagering hits from the first half of the MLB season.
Best Bet
San Diego Padres (+17.48 units)
Nobody gave the Friars a chance to do anything but finish at the bottom of the NL West this year. San Diego was slapped with 200/1 odds to win the World Series before the season kicked off and now that ratio has shrunk to 28/1.
It’s a good thing the Padres lead the league in pitching because their offense has not aided in this profitable 2010 season. San Diego ranks in the bottom third of baseball in runs scored and 25th in batting average (.250).
But the staff’s 3.25 ERA is the best in the bigs and the team’s 12 shutouts are good for the second-best mark. Pads hurlers boast the top WHIP rate at 1.23 and hold opponents to league-lows in average (.238) as well as on-base (.303) and slugging (.363) percentages.
Another winning component for San Diego has been a sound defensive effort. The Pads have committed the second-fewest errors in the league with 33.
Slugger Adrian Gonzalez is clearly not going anywhere and the Padres should be looking to land another bat before the trade deadline. Of the 88 games played this season, San Diego has only been favored in 33. This squad should continue to be undervalued by oddsmakers and as long as the pitching doesn’t falter, it will continue to turn a profit.
Worst Bet
Chicago Cubs (-21.90 units)
The Cubbies truly are a cursed team. The 2010 season for Chicago has been tainted by a dysfunctional clubhouse. Carlos Zambrano struggled, was demoted to the bullpen, returned to the starting rotation and then went Ron Artest on his teammates. Aramis Ramirez has been accused of quitting on the team. In short, Sweet Lou Piniella has had nothing sweet to sing about this year.
The heart of the Cubs problems comes from an offensive disappearing act. The team as a whole ranks 26th in runs scored and its .241 average with runners in scoring position is the second-worst mark in the Senior Circuit. Marlon Byrd is the only member of the team hitting over .300 while Chicago’s No. 3 and 4 hitters, Derrek Lee and Ramirez, have combined for a dismal .217 average, 19 home runs and 67 RBIs.
The third-highest MLB error total (69) has not made things any easier for the Cubs. The team is just 11-20 in one-run ballgames this year and costly fielding mistakes have contributed to that porous record.
Chicago was a 14/1 favorite to win the Fall Classic before the season started; it now holds odds of 150/1.
The Cubs are adored by the public which means they receive a lot of casual bettors’ money and the oddsmakers know it. Chicago has been listed as the underdog in only 30 of its 89 games. The North Siders finished last year 15.55 units in the red and they won’t end 2010 far off that number.
Best Over
Arizona Diamondbacks (53-34-2)
Take the worst team ERA in baseball (5.27) and combine that with the free-swinging lineup of the Diamondbacks and you’ve got the best over club in the big leagues.
Arizona has scored more than 400 runs this season and connected on 100 long balls. Arizona pitchers are allowing opposing teams to hit .281 against them and have yielded a league-high 117 home runs.
The Diamondbacks’ ace, Dan Haren, carries a bloated 4.36 ERA and the over/under record in his starts this season is 14-5. Chad Qualls and the back end of Arizona’s bullpen have been in shambles all season with 14 blown saves – the most in MLB. Opponents average more than a half run per inning against D-Backs’ pitching.
Arizona’s Chase Field produces the most runs per game in the majors at 10.8 and teams have played to the over in 29 of the 46 games played at the ballpark.
Best Under
St. Louis Cardinals (34-52-2)
A three-headed monster at the top of the rotation consisting of Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia is the primary reason St. Louis has been such a profitable under wager. That trio holds a combined ERA of 2.52 and Garcia has a ridiculous 3-14 over/under mark in 17 starts as a rookie.
Yadier Molina is one of the best defensive backstops in baseball year in and year out. Molina and his pitching counterparts have kept opposing runners honest by allowing a league-low 26 steals this season. Unders become more common when a catcher can keep ducks off the pond.
The Red Birds finished last season with a 68-86-8 over/under record and oddsmakers failed to adjust the numbers during the first half of 2010.