Baseball's Best Over Pitchers
By AARON SCHULDINER
With the All-Star break approaching, we take stock of the five pitchers whose starts have gone over the total most frequently. The number next to each player’s name is the percentage of his starts that have gone over, not including pushes.
* All stats compiled prior to Wednesday’s games. Pitchers must have at least ten starts to have been considered.
Dan Haren – 77.8 percent (18 starts: 14 over, 4 under)
Here’s a great recipe for an over: Start with a pitcher who is an ace by reputation (leading to lower O/U totals), but pitches well below expectations. Throw in a bullpen that’s got the worst ERA in baseball (6.88), and you can expect the over to come in more often than not. Ten of Haren’s first 11 starts went over the total, although he has pitched better of late, allowing just 16 earned runs over 49.3 innings since the beginning of June.
Joe Blanton – 72.7 percent (12 starts: 8 over, 3 under, 1 push)
2010 has been a disaster for Blanton (3-5, 6.27 ERA), who missed the first month of the season with a strained oblique, and has looked very shaky since his return. Pitching in a bandbox like Citizens Bank Park has hurt Blanton’s cause, and a formidable Philadelphia offense has also contributed to a high frequency of overs. Each of Blanton’s last seven starts has gone over the total.
Phil Hughes – 71.4 percent (15 starts: 10 over, 4 under, 1 push)
Hughes, who was recently selected to his first All-Star team, has pitched poorly over his last four starts, allowing 19 earned runs – and seven homers – over 24 1/3 innings. The high-powered Yankee offense (445 runs scored, second in MLB) has been a big factor in Hughes’ high over percentage. Eight of Hughes’ last nine starts have gone over the total, a trend that’s likely to continue if Hughes doesn’t start keeping the ball in the ballpark.
Johnny Cueto – 70.6 percent (17 starts: 12 over, 5 under)
Cueto has pitched well this season for the Reds, going 8-2 with a 3.56 ERA. His high over percentage has been largely a result of Cincinnati ’s potent lineup (NL-best 424 runs scored) and mediocre bullpen (4.36 ERA, 11th in the NL). Eleven of Cueto’s first 13 starts hit the over, but bettor beware – three of Cueto’s last four starts have stayed under the total, a stretch during which he’s allowed a total of two earned runs.
Todd Wellemeyer – 70 percent (11 starts: 7 over, 3 under, 1 push)
The Giants’ journeyman managed to rack up seven overs before going on the disabled list on June 11 with a strained right quad. Wellemeyer, who has walked 35 batters in 58 2/3 innings, saw six of his last seven starts go over the total before his trip to the DL. He may return to the Giants around the All-Star break, but barring injury, Wellemeyer has lost his spot in the rotation due to the emergence of Madison Bumgarner.