Baseball's Best Runline Bets
By CHRIS BERNUCCA
You don't have to be a good baseball team to provide a good return on the runline. But it doesn't hurt.
The Pittsburgh Pirates weren’t among any sane prognosticator's picks as potential contenders this season. They are puttering along with a 35-41 record sit at the bottom of the National League Central.
But against the runline (spread), the Pirates are near the top. Their runline mark of 45-31 is the second-best in baseball, trailing only the San Francisco Giants.
As the midway point of the season approaches, the Pirates are the only team with a record below .500 that has returned more than five units ($500 dollars if $100 was wagered on each game) on the runline this season.
Not every good team is good against the runline. Taking the first-place Detroit Tigers with the runline this season would have cost you more than five units, while the money line would have returned $600.
Let's take a look at baseball's top five teams against the runline and examine why they have been good plays so far.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels' 41-33 runline record virtually mirrors their 42-32 season mark, which leads the AL West. They are covering without the help good teams normally get from their pitching staffs.
The Angels are 25th in the majors in ERA. Despite closer Brian Fuentes leading the majors with 22 saves, their bullpen is even worse, ranking 29th in collective ERA.
But the Angels still hit it and catch it. They lead the majors with a .278 BA and are tied for third in the American League with a .987 fielding percentage.
Boston Red Sox
Boston's 43-33 runline record is not nearly as good as its 47-29 overall mark. But the Red Sox have returned over $1,500 (15 units) against the runline this season. Only the Giants have been better.
The Red Sox are a middle-of-the-road defensive team and are in their customary spot near the top in most hitting categories. But where they stay close - or build leads - is with their bullpen.
Boston's relievers are 12-6 with a league-leading 2.89 ERA while limiting opposing hitters to a .230 BA, which is second-best in baseball. The Red Sox are quite possibly the best big-league team over the last three innings.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are a .500 club at home (17-17), on the road (20-20) and overall. But against the runline, they are an elite 43-31 with a $572 return.
Cincinnati is in the bottom third of baseball in most of the major hitting and fielding statistics. How the Reds hang around is with their pitching, which ranks ninth with a 4.06 ERA and gets a huge boost from the bullpen.
Anchored by closer Francisco Cordero and veteran setup men Arthur Rhodes and David Weathers, the Reds are fourth in bullpen ERA at 3.34 and tied for fourth with an opponents' BA of just .231.
Pittsburgh Pirates
By record, the Pirates have the greatest positive runline anomaly. Backing them all season has meant more than $800 to the bettor.
Their solid .267 BA has been dragged down by the trade of Nate McLouth and they’ve hit just 49 homers, the second-fewest in the majors. They are among the top fielding teams, which offsets their lack of punch.
But where Pittsburgh stays competitive is with its rotation. Zach Duke and Paul Maholm are among the NL's top 15 in innings, anchoring a staff that ranks ninth in starter innings and tied for third with a surprising 43 quality starts.
San Francisco Giants
Are the Giants for real? Their major league-best 45-29 runline record certainly is, having returned better than $2,000 this season.
San Francisco is among the worst hitting teams and in the top third with the leather. So it's no surprise that its runline record has been built on the strength of its pitching.
The Giants are tied for first in ERA (3.61), second in opponents' batting average (.244 BA), first in strikeouts (5.94) and second in complete games (7). The bullpen has been solid but is next-to-last in total innings as the staff has been carried by rotation mainstays Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.
Veteran left-handers Barry Zito and Randy Johnson haven't quite hit their stride but are gobbling up innings. If they can get their ERAs closer to 4.00, the Giants will remain the best runline bet in the game.