Baseball's best runline underdogs
By JON KUIPERIJ
Some of baseball's worst teams couldn't see the .500 mark with the Hubble Telescope. But they can still be profitable in other ways.
Quite often, bad teams aren't as bad as their record indicates. They just have difficulty pulling out victories in tight games.
Fortunately for underdog bettors, the runline (pointspread) offers a way to make money with baseball's bottom feeders.
"Baseball can be a game of inches, and one-run games are not too uncommon," says Covers Experts' Matt Fargo.
Fargo says runline underdogs become particularly attractive when they're priced in the +150 range on the moneyline. That means they aren't completely overmatched and will likely only cost -110 to -120 with +1.5 runs attached.
"Obviously, the payout is not as big as playing the moneyline, but you get the added element of winning a one-run game," he says.
Here are four teams that are worth backing as runline underdogs this season:
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have disappointed their moneyline backers this year, going 40-55. As an underdog, however, they're 28-18 when catching 1.5 runs and have won 16 of those games outright. The Diamondbacks are well out of the playoff hunt and looking towards next year and will be substantial underdogs the rest of the way.
San Diego Padres
The Padres’ anemic offense has the team at the bottom of the NL West with a 37-58 record. But playing half its schedule at pitcher-friendly Petco Park helps San Diego stay close in many games. The Padres are 37-32 as a runline underdog, winning 26 times. The Padres have paid +150 or better on the moneyline in 17 of those games, so aren't too expensive to play with a +1.5 cushion.
Kansas City Royals
After winning 18 of their first 29 games, the Royals (37-57) quickly fell back Earth. The Royals still boasts a record above .500 when a +1.5 underdog, going 30-26 against the spread and posting 19 outright victories. Starting pitcher Brian Bannister is the poster boy for runline underdogs. Before a 9-6 loss to the Los Angeles Angels Wednesday, the Royals had lost by one run in each of Bannister's previous four starts as an underdog.
Washington Nationals
No discussion of bad baseball teams would be complete without mentioning the woeful Nats (28-66). When given an additional run to play with, the Nationals are 34-38, posting 20 straight-up victories in those contests. Books are inflating the Nationals’ moneylines and will offer a plus-money return on the runline as well, making a 34-38 clip profitable.