Best and Worst Five-Inning MLB Bets
By JOSH NAGEL
There’s nothing quite like watching the boys of summer play nine innings on a sunny July afternoon. Unless, the 100-degree heat is causing perspiration in all the wrong places and forcing you to squirm awkwardly in your bleacher seat.
Or, perhaps, the team you are betting on blows a huge lead in the bottom of the ninth, causing you to squirm awkwardly on your couch. Maybe you have somewhere better to be or, perhaps, you just need some action … fast.
Most sports bettors are aware that Major League Baseball isn’t exactly the sport of which action junkies are made, with most games easily clipping the three-hour mark.
Oddsmakers are aware of this too and responded with the five-inning bet to fill this void. Win or lose, the satisfaction of a fast outcome can be yours by the seventh-inning stretch.
Here is a quick team-by-team look at the top three best and worst teams for bettors through five innings in MLB.
Best
San Francisco Giants (43-30-8 through five innings)
If you like the security and simple approach of backing quality starting pitchers, the overachieving Giants are your team. Although their overall record of 44-37 has made them one of the league’s surprises, the first five innings is where they do their best work for bettors.
They boast the league’s best ERA at 3.53 and starters Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are a combined 18-4 with an ERA under 2.50. Although the Giants are 26th in offense at 4.16 runs per game and average just 2.29 in the first five innings, they are holding opponents to 1.93 runs in the same span, which is good enough to get the money most of the time.
Minnesota Twins (43-32-8)
The Twins help out their backers with a balanced attack, as they rank 11th in both runs scored (4.78) and ERA (4.28). Coincidentally, they hold the exact same half-run edge over their opponents in the first five frames, scoring 2.72 runs while yielding just 2.22.
Minnesota’s underrated starting staff features three starters, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn, who are a combined 23-13 and consistently get their club to the later innings in position to win. Their balanced lineup is led by the M&M boys, Justin Morneau (.323 avg., 21 HR, 69 RBI) and Joe Mauer (.389, 14 HR, 45 RBI).
Boston Red Sox (40-31-10)
The Red Sox can provide some quick punch on offense to get you to the five-inning finish line, as they are third in MLB at 5.27 runs per game. Even so, it’s worth pointing out that their starting rotation is capable of carrying the club as well, as they have posted a 32-15 record with an ERA just under 4.00.
However, their bats have slowed a little and their five-inning prowess has suffered because of it. Boston has scored five runs or more just three times in its last 10 outings, leading to 3-6-1 record over the first five innings in that span.
Worst
Washington Nationals (26-40-14 through first five innings)
If solid starting pitching is what you covet, look anywhere but here. The Nationals are either dead last or 29th – second to dead last – in all major pitching and defensive categories. Needless to say, both their overall and five-inning records reflect this trend.
With a banged-up and inconsistent starting staff, only John Lannan and Shairon Martis have managed to throw more than 80 innings. While they are a respectable 11-8 combined, the rest of the staff hasn’t been nearly as effective. The Nationals are scoring 2.19 runs in the first five innings, while yielding 2.93. In fairness, the offense hasn’t been much help. The Nationals are in the bottom third of MLB in all major categories.
San Diego Padres (28-40-13)
The Padres have the biggest gap in the majors between runs scored and runs allowed over the first five innings, scoring at a clip of 1.94 while giving up nearly a run more at 2.92.
This comes as little surprise considering the disappointing performance of their starting staff, including injured ace Jake Peavy’s mediocre mark of 6-6 with a 3.97 ERA. Chris Young and Chad Gaudin also have disappointed, as they are a combined 8-13. Not to be outdone, the Padres are dead last in the MLB in both batting average (.234) and runs scored (3.8 per game), with their only consistent threat coming from first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (24 HR, 51 RBI).
Oakland Athletics (26-40-14)
In the interest of equity, the A’s traded in their recent past, filled with solid pitching but inconsistent offense. And now, they are equally inept at both endeavors. While still following their time-honored policy of trading or dumping all pitchers before they can command more than a farmer’s salary, Oakland has balanced out its roster by signing some free-agent flops to fill out the lineup.
New additions such as Jason Giambi and Nomar Garciaparra have been injured and inconsistent, and the A’s continue to lack offensive punch as their 24th-ranked offense (4.19 runs per game) sputters along. They are scoring just 2.48 over the first five while allowing 2.80, and are 3-7 in their last 10 games for five-inning bettors.