Best over bets in baseball
By CHRIS BERNUCCA
As any baseball bettor will tell you, over plays are taking a beating this season.
Total bettors riding the over are just 758-838 this year and have registered 100 more losses than wins until posting a 58-30 mark during the last week.
The trend is league wide. There are 11 teams whose over counts are at least 10 games under .500. Meanwhile, just two teams have had 10 more games finish over the total than under.
Most of the damage was done at the beginning of the season. Over the last month, the over is 174-175, which shows that the bookmakers have made some adjustments.
A few select teams have bucked the trend, consistently returning on over plays.
Baltimore Orioles (55-52-5 over/under)
The Orioles don't score a lot and their 512 runs rank just 17th in the majors. And Oriole Park at Camden Yards actually projects as a pitcher's park.
But that hasn't helped Baltimore's pitchers, who are 29th in team ERA at 5.02. The team's fielding isn't spectacular, either, which also helps contribute to the over paydays.
The Orioles had an under stretch of 7-0-1 last month but are back on track in August, with the over/under mark of 7-2.
Milwaukee Brewers (56-51-3 over/under)
The Brewers are similar to the Orioles in that their formula for high-scoring games includes pretty good hitting and awful pitching.
Although the Brewers hit a bunch of homers, they are just 13th with 519 runs. Their 4.81 ERA is second-worst among National League teams.
Milwaukee gets no cooperation from Miller Park and its .900 run rate, near the bottom of the league. The Brewers closed their last home stand with five straight overs.
Florida Marlins (56-50-6 over/under)
The Marlins’ over/under count can probably be attributed to bookmakers' unfamiliarity with their team. Florida's roster is loaded with players getting their first taste of the big leagues, making it next to impossible to project their performances.
The Marlins are 15th in runs (514) and 14th in ERA (4.23), which means they should be closer to the middle of the over/under scale. They have gone over in six of their last seven games.
Cleveland Indians (58-48-5 over/under)
The Indians have been a moneymaker as an over play for most of the year. They are 10-3-1 over/under lately, and with Cliff Lee gone, that could continue.
Cleveland has the ideal formula with an offense that ranks fourth with 572 runs and a staff that ranked dead last with a 5.10 ERA.
The Indians give up five earned runs every game. Imagine if Progressive Field wasn't the second-best pitcher's park in baseball.
Los Angeles Angels (65-40-5 over/under)
If you have been riding the Angels as an over play this season, go to the head of the handicapping class. They recently rattled off 12 straight over paydays and have had three straight unders or more just twice all season.
Angels Stadium slightly favors the hitter and the Angels are second with 614 runs. They are also 26th with a 4.79 ERA, with a lot of the damage being done by their middle relief.
That formula usually doesn't produce a division champion but the Angels have a four-game lead in the AL West over the Texas Rangers, who in a strange twist have the best under mark.
What has baseball's scores on the rise?
By JOSH NAGEL
Ballparks have been heating up, contending teams have been boosting their rosters and the also-rans have been loading up with call-ups to play out the string.
Whether these factors play a major role in the recent surge of MLB finishes flying over the posted total, depends on your perspective.
This much is indisputable: since the start of August, MLB games have been rewarding over bettors at a furious pace.
Through Monday’s games, the over is 78-49-7 for a win rate of 58.2 percent. This stands in stark contrast to an early trend in which the under cashed in better than 57 percent of the time for the first month-plus of the season.
Oddsmakers and professional handicappers agree that late-season circumstances for MLB teams can influence trends in totals. Where they differ is in determining just how much weight to put behind these factors.
“Sometimes, it seems like there is a sensible argument for explaining a trend, but the only thing to back it up is perception,” Larry Ness said. “You can’t assume a reason for something without anything to back it up.”
Even so, the recent wave of overs in MLB suggests that some of the theories behind an increase in high-scoring games might have some teeth.
For instance, some teams, such as the St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox, have made a key roster addition to bolster their lineup as they head into the stretch run of the regular season.
The Cardinals added slugger Matt Holliday, a disappointment with the Oakland A’s but a viable insurance policy in the St. Louis lineup for MVP candidate Albert Pujols. The Red Sox added versatile catcher-infielder Victor Martinez in a trade with the Cleveland Indians.
“These guys are big players, and they definitely change the line a little bit,” said Randy Stafford, an oddsmaker with betcris.com. “These guys are worth half a run, and maybe even a full run (to the total).”
The opposite effect also plays a role, Stafford noted. Teams that have decimated their rosters through payroll-saving trades or cuts and have started the rebuilding process can contribute to the totals when they start rounding out their rosters with Triple-A level talent.
Other factors that might influence the recent burst of overs include the warm summer weather at venues such as Arlington, Texas, and Anaheim, California, where the ball seems to glide through the balmy air and over the fence more frequently this time of year.
“Usually, toward late July and August, the heat wave starts picking up and the ball starts to fly around a little more on the hot fields,” Stafford said. “The totals have something to with the heat. It’s just harder to play in cold weather.”
However, handicappers, such as Ness, aren’t sold on the notion that late-season conditions deserve the bulk of the credit for the swing in totals results.
“On the other side, look at the Angels,” he said. “They lose their two best hitters (Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter) to the disabled list, and win 17 of 20 games while hitting .320. That’s completely the opposite of what anyone could predict.
“Some things make sense that they are attributable to certain factors, and others don’t make sense at all.”
Although sportsbooks have taken a mild hit from public money that tends to favor the overs, Stafford said it’s only a matter of time before the pendulum swings back the other direction.
“We’ll move away from the wise money and hopefully, sooner or later, the games will start going under again,” he said.