Aces high and low: Betting baseball's best arms
By The Miller Group.
June is upon us and that means that baseball is about to take center stage in the betting world.
Here's a look at two aces to play on and two to fade in the next couple of weeks.
Hot
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
Here's a guy that got beaten up a lot over the last year or so.
Verlander had a disastrous 2008 season, losing 17 games and posting an ERA near five.
He didn't get off to a hot start this year either, but after getting crushed in his first four starts, I think it's safe to say the real Verlander is back.
The Tigers have won seven of his last eight starts and the righty has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven.
The best should be yet to come as Verlander has excelled in June throughout his career, going 9-3 with a 3.21 ERA.
Because bettors and oddsmakers are still shaking off their preconceived notions of the Tigers fallen ace, we can still get considerable value backing him.
Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins
You can argue that Johnson has been the most consistent starter in the game this season.
In 11 starts, he has allowed more than three earned runs only once.
His 2.66 ERA and 1.09 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) rank seventh and fifth respectively among National League starting pitchers.
But because he pitches for the Florida Marlins, wins have been hard to come by. He has only four so far, keeping him out of any early season Cy Young discussions.
Even though the Marlins have struggled, there is still value to be had backing Johnson. He's been on the mound for more than a third (eight) of Florida's 23 victories this season.
After throwing 71 of 111 pitches for strikes in Saturday's 7-3 win over the Mets, it's safe to say he's in top form at the moment.
Not
Paul Maholm, Pittsburgh Pirates
This isn't really a knock on Maholm himself, not entirely anyway.
The issue is that he's still being priced as a consistent winner, even though he doesn't have a single victory in his last seven starts.
Pirate hitters haven't helped his cause, giving him two runs or less to work with in four of his last five outings.
This is a guy that came roaring out of the gates, allowing only two earned runs in his first three starts. The Pirates were winners in his first four trips to the hill.
Since then he's allowed at least five earned runs on three occasions, including seven earned runs twice.
Even if Maholm can start consistently pitching better, there's no guarantee that the Pirates can score for him. That makes him a solid fade for the time being.
Kevin Millwood, Texas Rangers
Millwood is having a fine season by his own recent standards, but I think the time to fade him has arrived.
Over his last three starts, Millwood has been ordinary. He’s allowed 20 hits and nine earned runs while walking 10 and striking out only 11 over that period.
Rangers manager Ron Washington has been pushing his starters to the limit and Millwood is no exception. He has thrown at least 115 pitches in five of his last eight starts.
You have to wonder it's the right move considering Millwood is on the down side of his career in his 11th full season.
Even though we already saw Millwood's best stuff in April, the Rangers are still just 5-6 in his 11 starts.
That's alarming considering they own the best record in the American League at 30-20.