Betting baseball's best arms
By Miller Group
How about that performance by Cliff Lee on Sunday? Talk about an ace finding the zone.
Of course Lee has been in that zone since the start of last season.
Let's take a look at four aces to play and four to fade in the coming weeks.
Hot
Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins
I talked about Josh Johnson two weeks ago, but I think he's worth mentioning again as we approach the middle of June.
The Marlins have won each of his last five starts and he has allowed more than three earned runs only once all season. His lone poor performance came in his third start against - you guessed it - the Washington Nationals.
How's that for a curveball?
After struggling with control in May, Johnson has been on point here in June, striking out 19 while walking only five in three starts. He tossed a complete game on Sunday in Toronto.
His next two starts are likely to come at home against the Yankees and Orioles.
Johnson is definitely an arm worth betting on As the Marlins continue to climb the National League East standings.
Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
Is it time to start including Cain in the NL Cy Young discussion?
I don't see why not.
He earned his ninth win of the season on Sunday, improving to 8-0 over his last nine starts.
Cain has been on a special run since the Giants lost three of his first five outings this season. After leading his team to a 7-1 win over the A's on Sunday, he has allowed an earned run or less in five of his last six starts.
A word of warning however: Cain's last three starts have come against three of the worst offenses in the majors, the Nationals, D-backs and A's.
He'll face the Texas Rangers later this week, but does benefit from getting them at AT&T Park.
The best part is Cain still isn't being priced as a top flight pitcher. The most juice you've had to lay with him so far this season has been 35 cents.
Not
Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
It's not that Greinke has pitched that poorly lately, but because of his remarkable start, he's been saddled with some high expectations.
The Royals have now lost each of his last three starts and are 2-5 over his last seven trips to the hill.
Greinke has suddenly looked ordinary, allowing 23 hits and 11 earned runs over his last three starts.
Don’t forget that the Royals ace has been favored in 10 consecutive starts despite pitching for a losing Kansas City club.
It's a long season and Greinke will undoubtedly find himself back in top form soon enough, but for the time being he's worth fading.
CC Sabathia, New York Yankees
Sabathia certainly hasn't been living up to his massive paycheck, at least not yet.
I believe there's still some value in fading Sabathia until the All-Star break.
Keep in mind he's shown a tendency to step it up later in the summer. He owns a career 49-20 record from August to October.
In two June starts the big man has looked average at best.
He’s allowed eight earned runs in 15 innings pitched this month and his strikeout numbers have waned, with just 11 in his last two starts combined.
The Yankees are actually a losing team (6-7) with Sabathia on the mound despite sitting nine games over .500 on the season.
Most alarming is the fact that Sabathia's Yanks are 3-3 in games where he's been priced higher than -200.