Betting baseball’s best arms
By The Miller Group.
While the dog days have set in for some, the playoff race is just heating up for others.
Here's a look at two staff aces to play and two to fade in the coming weeks.
The best of the best
Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
Now that the trade deadline has come and gone and Roy Halladay remains a member of the Blue Jays, we should see him settle down and return to top form.
Not that he has really been struggling. He has actually gone the distance in two of his last three starts. However, the Jays have won just once in his last seven outings.
Halladay is dominant at home this season, going 7-2 with a 2.57 ERA in 11 starts. His strikeout to walk ratio ( 74:9) is second to none at Rogers Center.
We should still be able to play Halladay at reasonable prices because the Blue Jays are a losing team.
Don’t forget that his next start comes against the division-leading Yankees. Doc owns a 16-5 career record against the Bronx Bombers and he should benefit from facing them in Toronto.
Javier Vazquez, Atlanta Braves
Earlier this season Javier Vazquez had a tough time winning games, largely due to the Braves’ inability to score runs.
That hasn't been the case lately though. Vazquez is undefeated over his last five starts and his teammates have scored a total of 22 runs in his last three outings.
For his part, Vazquez has worked at least seven innings in four consecutive starts and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven trips to the hill.
His next start will come on the road in San Diego. He is 5-2 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.06 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) away from home this season, with opponents hitting just .228.
The Braves haven't lost a Vazquez road start since June 17 in Cincinnati. That was their fifth loss in a row with the veteran right-hander on the mound. Since then, they've gone 6-1.
Cold as ice
Jason Marquis, Colorado Rockies
Although they did sweep the Reds in Cincinnati last weekend, the Rockies have cooled off considerably over the last couple of weeks.
The same can be said for Jason Marquis.
He is tied for the National League lead with 12 victories, but has gone 1-2 over his last four starts.
We've been skeptical of Marquis for a while now and for good reason. He topped out at 15 wins over the course of his first 10 MLB seasons, not reaching more than 12 since 2006.
So far this season, his ERA sits nearly a full run lower than his career average.
It's not as if Marquis has been dominating opposing hitters. They're batting a collective .250 against him and his 68:43 strikeout to walk ratio is less than impressive.
The Rockies have a tough stretch ahead with back-to-back series against the Phillies and Cubs. You should be able to find value fading Marquis over his next couple of starts.
Joe Saunders, Los Angeles Angels
To say that Joe Saunders is lucky to have posted nine wins this season would be an understatement.
He should be bowing down to the baseball gods as we speak.
You won't find many winning pitchers that have allowed 14 more hits than innings pitched, 50 walks compared to just 72 strikeouts and recorded an ERA over five.
And it seems as if things are getting worse for the Angels left-hander.
Over his last three starts he has allowed 28 hits and 14 earned runs in just 16 2-3 innings. He has also struck out less than three in six of his last seven outings.
This is a guy that has seen his ERA rise from 3.66 on June 24 to 5.07 to August 3.
The Angels offense has been absolutely raking for Saunders, but it's only a matter of time before they cool off. When that happens, you know what to do.