Betting Baseball's Best Arms
By The Miller Group
I'm going to switch things up a bit this week and take a look at two pitchers to play on, and two to play against this week.
With one play per day, hopefully we can hit at least three out of four.
Play on pitchers
Tuesday
CC Sabathia, New York Yankees versus Oakland A's
It shouldn't come as any surprise that Sabathia has started to turn it on over the last couple of starts.
You'll remember he went on a ridiculous tear after joining the Brewers at the trade deadline last season.
That's was par for the course for the former Indian. CC is a career 52-20 pitcher in regular season starts from August to October.
The big left-hander's worked 15 2-3 innings over his last two outings, allowing just five hits, four walks and one earned run. He's also struck out 19 along the way.
On Tuesday he's matched up against A's starter Vin Mazzaro. Mazzaro's due for a correction after back-to-back wins in which he allowed only five earned runs, but 16 hits and five walks over 10 1-3 innings of work.
Mazzaro has only one win in five home starts this season, compiling a 6.15 ERA along the way.
Thursday
Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins vs. Houston Astros
Just when you thought that Josh Johnson was going to go off the rails, he comes up with back-to-back gems.
Johnson allowed at least three earned runs in five of seven starts before holding the Phillies and Rockies - two red hot offensive teams - to five hits and two earned runs.
J.J. does own an inflated 6.75 ERA against the Astros, but has yet to face them this season. And let's not forget he's only logged 6 2-3 innings against them over the course of his career.
We should be able to get solid value backing the Marlins on the road, especially considering they're facing Astros lefty Wandy Rodriguez, who carries an excellent reputation pitching at Minute Maid Park.
I'm not sure that Rodriguez will be in top form after getting lit up for 10 hits and 10 earned runs in his last start, an 11-2 loss against the Brewers.
Play against pitchers
Wednesday
Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Indians
If you're going to beat Jered Weaver, you need to have a lineup loaded with left-handed hitters.
Fortunately for the Indians, they have exactly that.
Seven of Cleveland's nine regular position players bat left.
That includes Grady Sizemore, who has really picked up the pace lately. He has eight hits in his last 19 at-bats and homered in back-to-back games over the weekend. He's a career .313 hitter in 16 at-bats against Weaver, with a pair of home runs.
While Weaver has held right-handed hitters to a .195 batting average this season, lefties are connecting at a .279 clip. Not surprisingly, 14 of his 21 home runs allowed have come off of left-handed hitters.
Weaver has also been terrible on the road this season, posting a 6.13 ERA and 1.62 WHIP (walks + hits per inning).
Friday
Joba Chamberlain, New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox had their lunch handed to them the last time they faced the Bronx Bombers and you can bet they'll be in a foul mood on Friday night.
I haven't been impressed by Joba Chamberlain lately. I'm not sure anyone has.
He's lasted through the sixth inning only once in his last three starts, allowing exactly four earned runs each time out.
My biggest concern is his lack of control. Over those three starts he has walked 12 while striking out an identical number.
Chamberlain actually earned the win in his last start against the Red Sox, but keep in mind he was aided by 13 runs.
The Red Sox are undecided on who they'll go with for this one, but don't be surprised if they skip over Junichi Tazawa's spot in the rotation. Regardless of who toes the rubber, I think we'll see some solid value backing the BoSox in this series opener at Fenway Park.