Betting MLB's Best Pitchers

Betting MLB's Best Pitchers: Two To Back, Two To Fade
By JON CAMPBELL

Betting the best pitchers in baseball is a risky business. Oddsmakers bump on the price and even the best hurlers goes through rough stretches during the course of the season.

To help out, I’ll isolate two staff aces to play and two to fade in a two-week window.

Before you call me out on not including guys like Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay, remember, I’m looking for pitchers that boast value. That means I won’t always be targeting Cy Young candidates.

Here’s a look at this week’s list.

Moneymakers

Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians

After suffering through a tumultuous couple of seasons, Fausto Carmona appears to be back in top form.

He went 13-19 over the last two seasons, with an ERA up around six. Keep in mind, this was a guy that won 19 games back in 2007, so there’s no denying he has the tools.

Carmona had a tremendous spring, and he’s carried those positive results into the regular season. Through four starts, he’s 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA, a sparkling 1.13 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) and opponents are hitting just .196 against him.

There’s a renewed sense of optimism in the Indians' clubhouse these days and Carmona is a big reason why. As they continue to improve, we should see plenty of value backing a guy who still has work to do to get back in the betting public’s good books.

Johan Santana, New York Mets

The Mets have finally shown some signs of life and that’s good news for their backers. The Mets have yet to garner much attention from the oddsmakers or the betting public.

Johan Santana is generally a slow starter, but that hasn’t been the case this season.

He’s tossed three gems in four starts, faltering only once, on April 11th against the Nationals. Since that loss, he has worked 13 1/3 innings, allowing just one earned run on 12 hits while striking out 14 and walking only one.

Santana has settled in nicely at Citi Field, where he’s made 17 starts since the park opened last year, posting a 10-4 record and a 2.61 ERA along the way.

With their offense slowly starting to come around, the Mets may actually be able to give their ace some help in the coming weeks. Keep an eye out for value backing Santana as a mid-range favorite.

Bankroll burners

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

Verlander regained his form last season, winning 19 games for the Tigers. However, he’s alternated good and bad campaigns over the last few years, and if his start to 2010 is any indication, it’s a trend that’s going to continue.

Through four starts, the Tigers righthander has recorded just one victory, and has allowed 17 earned runs in only 22 innings pitched. His strikeout totals are down, with only 19 thus far.

The good news is, Verlander has traditionally struggled in April. He’s owns a 7-10 career mark to go along with a 5.22 ERA in the first month of the season.

Rather than fade Verlander right now, your best bet may be to look at playing the over when he takes the hill. I say that because I have a lot of respect for the Tigers offense. Even when Verlander struggles, they’re capable of bailing him out.

Dan Haren, Arizona Diamondbacks

D-Backs ace Dan Haren has been nothing more than average through the first month of the season.

In 26 innings of work he has given up 27 hits and 15 earned runs. He’s also been tagged for five home runs. This is a guy who didn’t give up his fifth home run until the end of May last season.

Haren is about to enter what has traditionally been one of his worst months. He owns just 10 victories in 28 career starts in the month of May. By contrast, he’s 16-4 with a 2.61 ERA in June.

The main reason Haren should be on your fade list may not be any fault of his.

Arizona is quite simply a bad team right now. It's not scoring runs with any consistency and its bullpen ranks as worst in the league in ERA (6.99).

Haren will continue to be priced as an elite pitcher, but he’ll be hard pressed to post many wins unless his supporting cast gives him some help.