Betting the Home Run Derby
By AARON SCHULDINER
Dingers. Taters. Jacks. Round-trippers. Four-baggers. You can call them what you want, but you can’t call them boring.
Even in a year when pitching is dominating the sport, there’s a soft spot in every baseball fan’s heart for a deep fly ball that’s going, going, gone. It’s like Greg Maddux once told us so eloquently on behalf of Nike, “Chicks dig the long ball.”
Here’s our rundown of Monday’s Home Run Derby.
*All statistics compiled prior to Sunday’s games. Odds provided by betED.com.
Corey Hart +510 (20 HR)
The lanky outfielder – not the Canadian-born pop singer who wore his sunglasses at night – has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing year for Milwaukee. The towering young slugger seems to have finally grown into his power swing. Hart leads the Brewers in RBIs (65) and slugging percentage (.565), and his 20 homers are just four shy of his career best.
Chris Young +1000 (15 HR)
Chris Young will be the only leadoff hitter in this year’s competition. In an unconventional move, manager Kirk Gibson recently moved Young to the top of Arizona’s lineup, despite his 15 homers and 75 strikeouts. He will try to become Arizona’s first Home Run Derby winner since Luis Gonzalez took home the hardware in 2001, amid his 57-big fly campaign.
David Ortiz +300 (17 HR)
This will be Big Papi’s fifth Home Run Derby, making him the elder statesman of this year’s competition. It’ll be Ortiz’s first appearance since 2006, a season in which he hit a career-high 54 homers. His best days as a player are behind him, but Ortiz’s experience and classic pull swing make him a serious contender.
Hanley Ramirez +1000 (13 HR)
We don’t know who Fredi Gonzalez will be rooting for in this year’s contest, but we’re reasonably sure it won’t be Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez has clearly established himself as an elite player for the offensive versatility he brings to his position, but frankly, we don’t think Ramirez has the raw power to win this contest. Fortunately for most Floridians, they’ll be too caught up in LeBron-a-mania to notice.
Matt Holliday +550 (15 HR)
In terms of home run hitting, nobody in the field is hotter than Holliday. He’s hit nine dingers over the last month, including four this week alone. Holliday participated in the 2007 Derby in San Francisco, where he hit 13 homers but fell one short of the final round.
Miguel Cabrera +280 (22 HR)
Is anyone in baseball having a better year at the plate than Cabrera? The Detroit first baseman is leading baseball in batting average (.346), slugging percentage (650) and RBIs (76), and is tied for second with 22 home runs.
Nick Swisher +510 (15 HR)
Robinson Cano was originally chosen to participate in this year’s contest, but was later removed by Yankees management. Thanks to Nick Swisher, New York will be represented after all. Swisher, who made the All-Star team by beating out Kevin Youkilis in the closest final vote in history, is batting .303 with 15 homers on the year. He was selected to participate on Saturday afternoon and celebrated Saturday night by taking Felix Hernandez deep.
Vernon Wells +750 (19 HR)
Wells has been colder than a Toronto winter at the plate lately. He’s batting just .186 over the last two weeks and his one home run over that span is the lowest total of any player in the field. His season totals of 19 long balls and 49 RBIs are impressive, but you’d hate to put your money on a player who enters the Home Run Derby in that deep a funk.
The Pick: We hate to give you chalk, but it seems like 2010 is Miguel Cabrera’s year. Right now, Cabrera is a legitimate Triple-Crown candidate, and the favorite to be named American League MVP. With Cabrera this locked in, we’ll say he beats out Matt Holliday for the 2010 Home Run Derby crown.