Black and Blue Jays
By Kevin Rogers
The American League East seemed like it would be a three-team race between the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees coming into this season, but the Blue Jays didn't want to be forgotten. Toronto started the season winning 13 of its first 18 games, while Tampa Bay and New York struggled out of the gate. But things have reverted back to expected course over the last two weeks, with the Jays dropping nine in a row and 11 of 15, while falling into third place in the AL East.
Cito Gaston's return to the Blue Jays dugout midway through last season jump-started an underachieving club, as Toronto won 51 of its final 88 games to close out 2008. Toronto's offense was a key to their hot start, scoring 192 runs and hitting at a .292 clip in the first month of the season. Second baseman Aaron Hill has been on fire throughout the season, batting .344 with a club-high 12 home runs. Amazingly, the second-most homers hit on the Blue Jays is designated hitter Adam Lind, who has knocked out seven bombs. Right fielder Alex Rios is coming off a subpar power season last year (15 HR, 79 RBI in 155 games), and hasn't really found the rhythm this season, hitting to the tune of .262, with a slugging percentage of .408. Rios' outfield mate, Vernon Wells, has similar numbers, with an average of .269, and slugging .410, while hitting five homers (like Rios).
The worst betting role for the Jays this season has been as a road underdog. Toronto is 7-13 as a road 'dog, while owning a 4-3 road favorite mark. Is there sound reasoning to these contrasting numbers? Yes. Roy Halladay, despite losing as a $1.70 road 'chalk' Friday night at Atlanta, is responsible for all four road favorite victories. Granted, Halladay has picked up a no-decision in each of his last two as heavy 'chalk,' including Wednesday's 12-10 come-from-ahead loss at Baltimore to move the losing streak to nine (Jays blew an 8-3 lead in the 8th and 10-8 lead in the 11th). The Jays righty has won eight of his nine decisions, and are 8-3 in his eleven starts. In only two of his ten starts, has Halladay been listed as a $1.30 favorite or less (Jays won both games). Instead of investing a lot of juice on Halladay, the 'over' may be a good play, as the Jays are 8-3 to the 'over' in Halladay's starts, with a 4-1 'over' record at home.
Less than half of the road 'dog wins have come when right-hander Scott Richmond toes the rubber, with Richmond picking up three road victories, but has dropped his last two away from Rogers Centre. In four of Richmond's five road starts, the Jays have finished 'over' the total, with the combined score averaging listed at 12.6 runs per game. Richmond's turn is up next in the rotation when the Jays return home Friday to battle the Red Sox.
This road trip from hell for the Jays included sweep jobs by Boston and Atlanta, while last-place Baltimore put the cherry on top with a three-run walk-off homer from rookie Nolan Reimold, capping off another three-game broom-job.
The offense has dried up, with the Jays tallying 13 runs in the first eight games of this skid, prior to the ten-run outburst Wednesday. Interestingly, the Jays picked up nine hits or more five times during this skid, but Toronto has left plenty of runners stranded (Wells is hitting .161 with runners in scoring position this season). The ball is staying in the park also, as Toronto knocked out two home runs on their road trip, the first coming way back on May 19 at Fenway, a solo homer by Kevin Millar, followed by Hill's shot in extra-innings at Baltimore that went for naught.
The Jays will be thrilled to be back indoors at the friendly confines of the Rogers Centre on Friday night, beginning a nine-game homestand. The competition, though, is no walk in the park. Toronto will battle a pair of playoff teams from a season ago to start this stretch, hosting Boston for three games, then the L.A. Angels for three games next Tuesday. It doesn't get easier as the Royals invade Toronto for three games on Friday June 5. Halladay will not pitch in the Boston series after starting against the Orioles, while the Jays will likely see Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, and Jon Lester. A solid pitching matchup will take place to start the Angels series as Halladay will square off against L.A. lefty Joe Saunders.
The Jays will always be a strong home team, but after their recent woes on the road and their schedule getting a bit tougher, it is more and more likely that Toronto won't be in the mix to be playing into October.
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