Braves on the rise
May 27, 2009
By Joe Nelson
The hot start for the Dodgers and the recent surge of the Padres has brought a lot of attention to the NL West, while the struggles of the Cubs and the close race in the NL Central between the Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds is also an intriguing storyline. In the NL East, it seems to be a forgone conclusion that the Phillies and the Mets will be battling it out through September, but another perennial playoff contender is not far behind and could quickly climb back into the picture. The Atlanta Braves were a bit of a trendy pick in spring training and although they have floated around .500 most of the year, a big push into the thick of the playoff picture could be coming soon.
June could be a big month for Atlanta. Following a west coast trip to end May, Atlanta will play 16 of 25 June games at home. As usual, Atlanta gets tough interleague draws, playing three games with the Yankees and six with the Red Sox but two-thirds of those games will be at home. Atlanta recently won three games against Toronto, so the Braves have proven they can compete against the best in the AL unlike many other NL teams. The Braves will have a critical ten-game home stand to open the month, catching slumping offenses in Chicago, Milwaukee, and Pittsburgh in what will be a key opportunity to pick up some ground. In the first two months of the season the Braves have already played six games at Philadelphia and more games in New York than at home so they should have opportunities to move up in this division.
As was the case when Atlanta had great teams in the 90s, pitching is going to carry the Braves. Atlanta currently owns one of the better ERAs in baseball a 4.13 and the team ranks fifth in baseball in WHIP and strikeouts. Atlanta’s defense has also been one of the better fielding units in the league. In signing Derek Lowe the Braves have a reliable #1 option at the top of the rotation and he has not disappointed so far with a 6-2 record. Javier Vazquez has also revived his career with very solid numbers for the Braves. Jair Jurrjens has all-star caliber numbers with a 2.07 ERA through ten starts and Kenshin Kawakami has pitched much better his numbers indicate. The #5 spot has not been locked down but promising prospect Kris Medlen currently has the opportunity. Even if that spot remains in flux, few teams can match this rotation, particularly in the NL East.
The Atlanta bullpen has not been great overall this season but closer Mike Gonzalez and set-up man Rafael Soriano may be all that the Braves need. Both veteran relievers have produced great numbers so far this season and given the durability and endurance of the rotation this unit will not need a ton of middle-relief innings. Between Jeff Bennett, Buddy Carlyle, Eric O’Flaherty, and Peter Moylan the Braves have enough pieces to maintain a competitive bullpen and with closing options from the left and right side with Gonzalez and Soriano the Braves should lock down wins, a key in the NL East with Phillies closer Brad Lidge struggling and Mets closer Francisco Rordiguez battling injury.
A big difference for the Braves this season has been improved play on the road. Last season Atlanta was 29-52 on the road, one of the worst marks in baseball. Atlanta has gone 12-10 so far this season in road games and many of those wins have come against winning teams. The Braves have gone 4-2 in Philadelphia, 2-1 in New York, and 2-0 in Florida to deliver commanding success within the division. Atlanta also won a series in Cincinnati, another team that is playing well. The Braves did lose early season series in Pittsburgh and Washington but after starting the season 11-15 Atlanta has played much better overall in the last three weeks. The Braves have not been swept in a road series all season long although that run is in jeopardy in San Francisco this week.
The Braves have only scored 4.3 runs per game but the team is batting .262, around the middle-of-the-pack in baseball, but an average that should reflect more scoring. Atlanta has hit only 33 home runs and stolen just 10 bases to rank towards the bottom of the league in those categories but with Chipper Jones and Brian McCann Atlanta should have two solid .300+ hitters and Atlanta has been playing better with Matt Diaz taking over many of the at-bats that Jordan Schafer and his 56 strikeouts took early in the year. If Kelly Johnson and Garret Anderson can get back in line wither their career averages this offense should be good enough and with wild cards like Jeff Francoeur and Casey Kotchman leading the team in at-bats there should be some hot streaks at various points of the season. Atlanta strikes out much less than most teams and generates enough walks to make-up for some power deficiencies.
Atlanta has also proven in the past they are willing to make a big move to add what they need. Jake Peavy talks could resume after falling through in the off-season and there will be several attractive bats on the market that could fit in nicely with this offense. The Braves have also been crushing left-handed pitching going 11-5 against left-handed starters this season, a key in a division with Johan Santana and Cole Hamels. The June schedule looks very tough for the Mets and the Phillies so expect Atlanta to slowly climb closer to the top of the standings in the next month and look for the NL East to be a three-team race down the stretch with the Braves as a serious threat.
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