Bullpen Betting Update
By Steve Makinen
It’s been awhile since we’ve checked in on the status of the bullpens in Major League Baseball. For anyone who has hung around StatFox during the baseball months, surely you know our infatuation with bullpens and their relevance to betting success. With that in mind, this is a great time to check in on each team’s key bullpen stats to see if we may be missing out on some potential wagering opportunities. I prefer to analyze the WHIP and ERA stats as strength indicators for bullpens, as opposed to saves or number of saves blown, which I believe to be more fluky figures. This time around, we’ll look at some situational numbers too, overall, at home, on the road, and last seven games.
Note: All stats as of games completed through 6/13.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Overall - WHIP: 1.807 (30), ERA: 7.33 (30), Record: 26-38 -11.35 Units (26)
Home - WHIP: 1.559 (24), ERA: 6.33 (30), Record: 17-16 -0.45 Units (19)
Road - WHIP: 2.059 (30), ERA: 8.36 (30), Record: 9-22 -10.9 Units (28)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 2.197 (30), ERA: 7.72 (30), Record: 4-3 1.3 Units (13)
Analysis: Arizona’s bullpen has been awful all year long and one of the main reasons the D-Backs are buried at the bottom of the N.L. West. They’ve been slightly better at home than on the road, but aren’t trending well at all of late.
ATLANTA BRAVES
Overall - WHIP: 1.28 (7), ERA: 3.27 (7), Record: 37-27 7.1 Units (4)
Home - WHIP: 1.075 (3), ERA: 2.63 (4), Record: 19-6 10.25 Units (2)
Road - WHIP: 1.422 (13), ERA: 3.72 (8), Record: 18-21 -3.15 Units (17)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.469 (16), ERA: 2.75 (7), Record: 4-3 1.3 Units (12)
Analysis: Atlanta’s bullpen has really come around over the past month and is one of the contributing factors in the rise to the top of the N.L. East. They have been particularly effective at home and boast a 19-6 record, not a coincidence.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Overall - WHIP: 1.563 (25), ERA: 4.64 (23), Record: 17-46 -23.35 Units (30)
Home - WHIP: 1.606 (28), ERA: 5.09 (27), Record: 11-21 -8.25 Units (28)
Road - WHIP: 1.512 (16), ERA: 4.11 (15), Record: 6-25 -15.1 Units (30)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.5 (17), ERA: 5.06 (22), Record: 2-5 -1.95 Units (22)
Analysis: Baltimore’s bullpen seems to be getting better as the season wears on, unfortunately the O’s have too many other problems, namely starting pitching, run production, and a brutal division schedule for it to matter.
BOSTON RED SOX
Overall - WHIP: 1.372 (12), ERA: 4.48 (20), Record: 37-28 0.27 Units (16)
Home - WHIP: 1.246 (9), ERA: 3.66 (14), Record: 20-15 -0.25 Units (18)
Road - WHIP: 1.553 (19), ERA: 5.66 (25), Record: 17-13 0.52 Units (8)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 2.124 (29), ERA: 6.75 (29), Record: 4-3 -0.7 Units (18)
Analysis: Ask any fan in Boston and they’ll have very few good things to say about the Sox bullpen. However, here we are in June, and Boston remains in contention despite substandard relief pitching, particularly over the last week. Expect improvement.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Overall - WHIP: 1.422 (18), ERA: 4.04 (14), Record: 28-34 -9.4 Units (25)
Home - WHIP: 1.531 (23), ERA: 4.9 (23), Record: 15-18 -8.3 Units (29)
Road - WHIP: 1.284 (7), ERA: 2.95 (5), Record: 13-16 -1.1 Units (14)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.673 (24), ERA: 5.19 (23), Record: 5-2 3.2 Units (5)
Analysis: Only four teams in the American League are scoring less runs than the White Sox, thus their disappointing bullpen stats at home have not helped the cause. The relief pitching has been more than reliable on the road however, presenting one of the biggest home/road disparities in the league to this point.
CHICAGO CUBS
Overall - WHIP: 1.418 (17), ERA: 4.24 (17), Record: 28-35 -16.45 Units (28)
Home - WHIP: 1.276 (12), ERA: 3.52 (12), Record: 15-15 -7.35 Units (26)
Road - WHIP: 1.566 (21), ERA: 4.99 (20), Record: 13-20 -9.1 Units (27)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.585 (20), ERA: 4.07 (14), Record: 3-4 -2 Units (23)
Analysis: Unlike recent seasons where the Cubs were in playoff contention in June, Lou Pinella has not been able to turn to his bullpen and expect results. Just this past Sunday against the White Sox, the Cubs pen almost blew a near no-hit bid for Ted Lilly.
CINCINNATI REDS
Overall - WHIP: 1.585 (26), ERA: 4.74 (24), Record: 36-28 6.52 Units (6)
Home - WHIP: 1.5 (22), ERA: 5.03 (25), Record: 22-15 4.45 Units (10)
Road - WHIP: 1.706 (26), ERA: 4.32 (18), Record: 14-13 2.07 Units (6)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.682 (25), ERA: 4.09 (15), Record: 3-4 -1.9 Units (20)
Analysis: Fortunately for Dusty Baker, the Reds are scoring enough runs (5.1, #1 in N.L.) to offset the bullpen problems they have had. They have as equally ineffective at home as on the road and aren’t trending well lately either. Mark these words…this deficiency will bite Cincy in the upcoming months.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Overall - WHIP: 1.698 (29), ERA: 5.2 (28), Record: 25-37 -4.6 Units (21)
Home - WHIP: 1.647 (30), ERA: 4.48 (21), Record: 12-17 -3.7 Units (21)
Road - WHIP: 1.742 (29), ERA: 5.81 (29), Record: 13-20 -0.9 Units (12)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.438 (15), ERA: 3.38 (12), Record: 4-3 2.45 Units (7)
Analysis: Cleveland is 12-games under .500 and buried at the bottom of the Central Division but in truth, it could be much worse. Fortunately, their starting staff has been competent enough to make the Indians at least competitive.
COLORADO ROCKIES
Overall - WHIP: 1.186 (4), ERA: 3.2 (4), Record: 33-30 -2.95 Units (19)
Home - WHIP: 1.09 (4), ERA: 3.2 (9), Record: 19-12 1.35 Units (15)
Road - WHIP: 1.284 (8), ERA: 3.19 (7), Record: 14-18 -4.3 Units (21)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.263 (8), ERA: 4.97 (20), Record: 4-3 -1.9 Units (21)
Analysis: It’s a sign of the times when the Rockies no longer rely on their offense, even in Coors Field, to stay in games. Now it is actually the pitching staff, notably the bullpen, that has the Rockies in contention in the N.L. West. Overall, this relief staff is ranked 4th best in the league in both WHIP and ERA.
DETROIT TIGERS
Overall - WHIP: 1.262 (6), ERA: 2.98 (3), Record: 33-29 2.9 Units (12)
Home - WHIP: 1.263 (11), ERA: 3.22 (10), Record: 20-10 8.25 Units (5)
Road - WHIP: 1.261 (5), ERA: 2.74 (2), Record: 13-19 -5.35 Units (22)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.278 (10), ERA: 4.5 (18), Record: 4-3 0.85 Units (16)
Analysis: Detroit has really been an enigma this season as far as bullpen betting is concerned. The Tigers have gotten strong relief pitching on the road, yet are 6-games under .500 away right now. They haven’t been nearly as effective at home, but are 10-games over-.500. Watch this trend closely in the coming weeks, as the Tigers could be ready to reverse their road woes.
FLORIDA MARLINS
Overall - WHIP: 1.455 (21), ERA: 4.48 (21), Record: 31-32 -1.5 Units (18)
Home - WHIP: 1.566 (25), ERA: 4.94 (24), Record: 17-15 -0.5 Units (20)
Road - WHIP: 1.319 (9), ERA: 3.92 (14), Record: 14-17 -1 Units (13)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.615 (21), ERA: 4.57 (19), Record: 3-4 1 Units (14)
Analysis: Florida’s bullpen has been up & down, much like the rest of the team this entire season. Unfortunately, overall, the Marlins have blown 10 saves, games that would have made a big difference in closing the gap between them and the Braves.
HOUSTON ASTROS
Overall - WHIP: 1.517 (24), ERA: 4.88 (27), Record: 25-39 -5.95 Units (22)
Home - WHIP: 1.453 (21), ERA: 4.61 (22), Record: 14-20 -6.7 Units (25)
Road - WHIP: 1.609 (23), ERA: 5.28 (22), Record: 11-19 0.75 Units (7)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.435 (14), ERA: 5.28 (24), Record: 3-4 1.5 Units (11)
Analysis: Houston’s bullpen hasn’t had a whole lot of chances to blow games since with the offense scoring just 3.4 runs per game, they are rarely leading. Even so, when called upon, they haven’t produced either.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Overall - WHIP: 1.508 (23), ERA: 4.38 (19), Record: 27-37 -1.4 Units (17)
Home - WHIP: 1.619 (29), ERA: 5.04 (26), Record: 12-18 -5.9 Units (24)
Road - WHIP: 1.399 (12), ERA: 3.74 (11), Record: 15-19 4.5 Units (5)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.306 (12), ERA: 2.61 (6), Record: 4-3 2.3 Units (8)
Analysis: Kansas City has a real nice young starting pitching staff, and their closer has great stuff. The overall numbers for wins & losses don’t exactly show it, but the Royals’ relief staff has been very effective on the road and of late.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Overall - WHIP: 1.655 (28), ERA: 4.79 (25), Record: 36-30 6.25 Units (7)
Home - WHIP: 1.57 (27), ERA: 4.19 (18), Record: 16-13 0.45 Units (16)
Road - WHIP: 1.737 (27), ERA: 5.38 (24), Record: 20-17 5.8 Units (3)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.5 (18), ERA: 4.29 (17), Record: 5-2 3.7 Units (3)
Analysis: Relief pitching has been one of the bigger problems for the Angels this year as they’ve blown half of their save opportunities at home. However, as the 8-5 bullpen record shows, they’ve been rescued on numerous occasions by late offensive heroics.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Overall - WHIP: 1.282 (8), ERA: 3.8 (13), Record: 36-27 1.65 Units (14)
Home - WHIP: 1.298 (15), ERA: 3.85 (15), Record: 23-13 3.8 Units (11)
Road - WHIP: 1.257 (4), ERA: 3.73 (9), Record: 13-14 -2.15 Units (15)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.05 (5), ERA: 2.03 (5), Record: 4-3 0.05 Units (17)
Analysis: Speaking of late offensive heroics, team “walk-off”, the Dodgers have been kept in games by their bullpen, and the 13-6 record for their relief staff shows it. This isn’t typically a reliable variable to consider in your handicapping though.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Overall - WHIP: 1.633 (27), ERA: 5.86 (29), Record: 26-37 -12.4 Units (27)
Home - WHIP: 1.567 (26), ERA: 6.02 (29), Record: 11-19 -11.65 Units (30)
Road - WHIP: 1.695 (25), ERA: 5.71 (28), Record: 15-18 -0.75 Units (11)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.304 (11), ERA: 3.13 (11), Record: 4-3 1.65 Units (10)
Analysis: Milwaukee has gone from having one of the worst bullpens in the league to one of the best back to one of the worst in the span of just a few years. Trevor Hoffman’s struggles have been well-documented but that is just one part of the story. However, this pen is trending well of late, making Milwaukee a team to possibly keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
MINNESOTA TWINS
Overall - WHIP: 1.173 (3), ERA: 2.94 (2), Record: 36-27 1.85 Units (13)
Home - WHIP: 1.152 (7), ERA: 2.7 (5), Record: 21-12 1.75 Units (14)
Road - WHIP: 1.193 (3), ERA: 3.17 (6), Record: 15-15 0.1 Units (10)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.424 (13), ERA: 1.83 (3), Record: 3-4 -2.35 Units (24)
Analysis: Not surprisingly, Ron Gardenhire again has one of the more reliable relief crews in baseball, much of the reason the Twins currently own a 2.5-game lead in the Central. The best part is this bullpen is just as reliable on the road as at home. Your money is in good hands in late games with Minnesota.
NEW YORK METS
Overall - WHIP: 1.454 (20), ERA: 3.73 (12), Record: 35-28 6.75 Units (5)
Home - WHIP: 1.277 (13), ERA: 2.26 (2), Record: 24-10 12.35 Units (1)
Road - WHIP: 1.633 (24), ERA: 5.22 (21), Record: 11-18 -5.6 Units (23)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.067 (6), ERA: 1.2 (1), Record: 6-1 4.65 Units (1)
Analysis: The Mets are another team whose bullpen hasn’t been anywhere near as effective on the road as at home, a huge reason they are 7-games under .500 away. However, they’ve been very effective lately and could have a chance to turn it around on a 6-game trip starting Tuesday.
NEW YORK YANKEES
Overall - WHIP: 1.316 (9), ERA: 4.06 (15), Record: 40-23 6.2 Units (8)
Home - WHIP: 1.371 (18), ERA: 5.5 (28), Record: 22-7 9.5 Units (3)
Road - WHIP: 1.267 (6), ERA: 2.8 (4), Record: 18-16 -3.3 Units (18)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 0.978 (4), ERA: 2.94 (8), Record: 6-1 4 Units (2)
Analysis: New York scores enough runs (5.6, most in MLB) that the bullpen struggles this season have flown under the radar. However, if the Yankees continue to stay neck & neck with the Rays and Red Sox all season, this area of weakness could become a much bigger problem.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Overall - WHIP: 1.41 (16), ERA: 4.23 (16), Record: 32-33 0.5 Units (15)
Home - WHIP: 1.092 (5), ERA: 2.83 (7), Record: 21-13 7.8 Units (6)
Road - WHIP: 1.739 (28), ERA: 5.67 (27), Record: 11-20 -7.3 Units (24)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 0.944 (3), ERA: 3 (9), Record: 2-5 -3.15 Units (25)
Analysis: Very good at home. Very bad on the road. That’s basically what we’ve come to expect from Oakland early. Their bullpen stats mirror this trend identically.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Overall - WHIP: 1.368 (11), ERA: 3.64 (10), Record: 32-29 -8.05 Units (24)
Home - WHIP: 1.14 (6), ERA: 3.51 (11), Record: 16-13 -5.25 Units (23)
Road - WHIP: 1.552 (18), ERA: 3.75 (12), Record: 16-16 -2.8 Units (16)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.583 (19), ERA: 4.13 (16), Record: 2-5 -4.85 Units (28)
Analysis: Shaky, that’s about all you can say about Philadelphia’s bullpen to date. Even when saves have been converted, they haven’t been easy. The numbers overall are decent, but Philly fans have come to expect much more and this, along with the offensive woes of course, are contributing factors in the third place standing right now.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Overall - WHIP: 1.403 (14), ERA: 4.53 (22), Record: 23-40 -4.03 Units (20)
Home - WHIP: 1.41 (19), ERA: 4.29 (19), Record: 14-15 3.3 Units (12)
Road - WHIP: 1.397 (11), ERA: 4.76 (19), Record: 9-25 -7.33 Units (25)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.667 (23), ERA: 5 (21), Record: 0-7 -7 Units (30)
Analysis: Pittsburgh scores the fewest runs in baseball at 3.2. They are struggling offensively, no doubt about it. Their bullpen has really had little to do with their overall woes, and until something changes in the lineup, it won’t.
SAN DIEGO PADRES
Overall - WHIP: 1.019 (1), ERA: 2.62 (1), Record: 37-26 14.75 Units (1)
Home - WHIP: 0.94 (1), ERA: 2.5 (3), Record: 20-13 6.7 Units (9)
Road - WHIP: 1.113 (2), ERA: 2.77 (3), Record: 17-13 8.05 Units (2)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 0.778 (2), ERA: 2 (4), Record: 4-3 2.1 Units (9)
Analysis: Best bullpen in the league. THE major reason why this team has won many games late and owns the best record in the majors. Hopefully you’ve been able to take advantage. If not, it’s not too late.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Overall - WHIP: 1.437 (19), ERA: 3.63 (9), Record: 35-27 3.5 Units (10)
Home - WHIP: 1.294 (14), ERA: 2.01 (1), Record: 22-11 6.9 Units (8)
Road - WHIP: 1.586 (22), ERA: 5.31 (23), Record: 13-16 -3.4 Units (19)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.962 (28), ERA: 6.23 (27), Record: 5-2 3.3 Units (4)
Analysis: The bend, don’t break bullpen. This team has gotten into plenty of jams this season, yet has converted 22 of 30 saves and has a top 10 ERA bullpen ranking. Still, they need to improve on the road to keep up with San Diego, Los Angeles, and Colorado.
SEATTLE MARINERS
Overall - WHIP: 1.476 (22), ERA: 4.81 (26), Record: 24-39 -17.35 Units (29)
Home - WHIP: 1.441 (20), ERA: 4.01 (17), Record: 15-17 -4.3 Units (22)
Road - WHIP: 1.513 (17), ERA: 5.67 (26), Record: 9-22 -13.05 Units (29)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.637 (22), ERA: 6.14 (26), Record: 2-5 -3.3 Units (26)
Analysis: Seattle is another team with decent arms in the bullpen but it hasn’t mattered because the offense simply can’t score runs. Unfortunately the pitching has had to be nearly perfect to give the team a chance to win games. That will continue till the runs start coming.
ST LOUIS CARDINALS
Overall - WHIP: 1.22 (5), ERA: 3.27 (6), Record: 34-29 -7.5 Units (23)
Home - WHIP: 1.059 (2), ERA: 2.81 (6), Record: 19-10 0.45 Units (17)
Road - WHIP: 1.382 (10), ERA: 3.74 (10), Record: 15-19 -7.95 Units (26)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.727 (26), ERA: 5.73 (25), Record: 1-6 -6.7 Units (29)
Analysis: St. Louis’ recent struggles have coincided with the inability to get hitters out late. This is a bullpen that is clearly trending the wrong way right now, but a big homestand could change that.
TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS
Overall - WHIP: 1.142 (2), ERA: 3.22 (5), Record: 40-23 4.3 Units (9)
Home - WHIP: 1.259 (10), ERA: 3.87 (16), Record: 18-15 -8.25 Units (27)
Road - WHIP: 0.981 (1), ERA: 2.34 (1), Record: 22-8 12.55 Units (1)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.082 (7), ERA: 3.1 (10), Record: 4-3 -1.15 Units (19)
Analysis: Look no further than the performance that Joe Maddon has gotten from his bullpen on the road to see why the Rays still own the best record in baseball. However, it is puzzling why they aren’t producing at the same level at home. Expect the home/road numbers to come back to one another the rest of the way.
TEXAS RANGERS
Overall - WHIP: 1.357 (10), ERA: 3.72 (11), Record: 35-28 3.42 Units (11)
Home - WHIP: 1.298 (16), ERA: 3.63 (13), Record: 23-11 7.65 Units (7)
Road - WHIP: 1.435 (14), ERA: 3.84 (13), Record: 12-17 -4.23 Units (20)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 0.735 (1), ERA: 1.65 (2), Record: 5-2 3.15 Units (6)
Analysis: A recent surge by the Rangers’ bullpen has their overall stat rankings rising as well as their won-lost mark. Texas’ 9-4 record to date in June could be a sign of things to come the rest of the way as they are getting good pitching and hitting.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Overall - WHIP: 1.408 (15), ERA: 4.35 (18), Record: 34-30 8.3 Units (3)
Home - WHIP: 1.323 (17), ERA: 4.41 (20), Record: 17-14 3.15 Units (13)
Road - WHIP: 1.484 (15), ERA: 4.3 (17), Record: 17-16 5.15 Units (4)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.762 (27), ERA: 6.43 (28), Record: 1-6 -4.75 Units (27)
Analysis: Toronto is proof that home runs alone can’t win games at anywhere near the clip that they used to. With the bullpen imploding in the first six games of their current 9-game road swing, the Jays have fallen to 6.5-games back. Overall, this team has still produced good numbers for bettors, but the trend seems to indicate the best days could be in the rearview mirror.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Overall - WHIP: 1.396 (13), ERA: 3.61 (8), Record: 31-33 8.75 Units (2)
Home - WHIP: 1.245 (8), ERA: 2.97 (8), Record: 18-12 8.5 Units (4)
Road - WHIP: 1.554 (20), ERA: 4.28 (16), Record: 13-21 0.25 Units (9)
Last 7 Games - WHIP: 1.272 (9), ERA: 3.66 (13), Record: 4-3 1 Units (15)
Analysis: The Nationals’ bullpen is as good as it has been since they moved to Washington. Now, with Stephen Strasburg joining the staff, their starting pitching is as well. The fact that they rank 8th in the majors in bullpen ERA has a lot to do with producing nearly 9-units of profit for bettors this season.
If you’re still not convinced how important bullpens are to success in baseball, and thus, success in betting baseball, San Diego should be all the proof you need. More than ever, there is a huge difference in the have’s and have-not’s in terms of reliable pitching this season, and rest assured, if you ride those “have’s” the rest of the way, you’re bankroll will be glad you did. Good luck.