Capping Citizens Bank Park
By CHRIS BERNUCCA
Baseball's biggest home-field advantage might belong to the defending champion Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
With its unconventional, practically square layout and short power alleys, "The Bank" has always been a hitter's park since it opened in 2004. The impact on the offense in Philadelphia's home games has been dramatic.
The impact on totals wagers? Not as dramatic, as an initial upward trend has leveled off in recent seasons.
Unlike most ballparks, the outfield walls of Citizens Bank Park extend at a right angle rather than an arc from the outfield corners, shortening the distance of the power alleys from home plate. Only a beveled wall in center field prevents the layout from being a virtual square.
The right field power alley is just 369 feet from home plate, while the left power alley measures 374 feet. The left field fence was moved back five feet following the 2005 season after the ballpark surrendered 419 homers in its first two years, more than half of them to left field.
In its last three seasons as the Phillies' home, Veterans Stadium ranked in the bottom third of all ballparks in run rate and homer rate. In 2002, it was 30th in run rate (0.821) and 22nd in homer rate (0.939).
Run rate and homer rate determine the number of runs and homers at a team's ballpark compared to the runs and homers in that team's road games. If the rate is below 1.0, the park favors the pitcher, and vice versa.
During the last five seasons at The Vet, Phillies contests consistently averaged nearly a quarter of a run less than they did on the road. In 2003, Philadelphia's home games averaged 8.401 runs and its road games averaged 8.648 runs.
Then the Phillies moved into Citizens Bank Park in 2004, and everything changed.
Where Veterans Stadium was near the bottom in run rate and home run rate, Citizens Bank Park was near the top. Its run rate ranked third in 2005 and eighth in 2006. Its homer rate ranked no lower than sixth in its first four years, including a league-leading 1.418 in 2007.
Totals were impacted as well as they made a quantum leap in Philadelphia's home games. In 2004, Phillies games averaged 9.253 runs, a jump of .848 runs per game.
The number continued to climb and reached a high of 9.932 runs in 2007, a remarkable total for a National League park. In that season, totals in Philadelphia's games averaged .784 more runs at home than on the road.
Until recently, The Bank had been a winner for over players. In its first four years, the over was 166-156-12 in Phillies home games. Contrast that with a 143-165-15 mark in the last four years at The Vet.
But in the last year-plus, the over is just 52-60-4 at Citizens Bank Park. When the Phillies are on the road over the same span, the over is 56-57-8.
There are a number of factors, not the least of which is the knowledge of handicappers. But as mentioned, games at Citizens Bank Park are about a half-run off their high of 2007. The end-game combination of Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge certainly has had an impact. And after going 48-33 straight up at home in 2008, the Phillies are an inexplicable 15-22 at home this year.
Yes, the Phillies play higher-scoring games at The Bank. But that doesn't mean that playing the over is money in the bank.