Capping Rangers Ballpark in Arlington
By CHRIS BERNUCCA
Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has been partial to Most Valuable Players.
Over players? That's another story.
Since it opened in 1994, Rangers Ballpark has been home to four MVPs, the most in the American League in that span. Juan Gonzalez (twice), Ivan Rodriguez and Alex Rodriguez have taken advantage of natural and man-made elements geared toward helping the hitter.
Rangers Ballpark has a relatively short right field line at 325 feet and right-center field power alley of 377 feet. It also has limited foul areas as front-row seats on the far side of both dugouts are just 44 feet from the bases.
The triple-digit temperatures, low humidity and high winds that accompany summers in central Texas contribute to the stadium's power surge as well.
Helped by their home park, the Rangers have eclipsed the 200 home run mark eight times since moving into Rangers Ballpark.
This year is no different as Texas is second in both total homers and homers at home. But that doesn't mean bettors should start blindly wagering on the over in Rangers' games.
Six times in the last seven full seasons, Rangers Ballpark has been among the top seven in run rate. In five of the last seven seasons, it has been in the top nine in homer rate. Last season, it was first in run rate (1.142) and fifth in homer rate (1.229).
Run rate and homer rate use a simple math formula to determine whether a ballpark favors hitters or pitchers. The greater the number is above 1.0, the more the ballpark favors the hitter.
But where Rangers Ballpark becomes evident as a hitter's haven is in the dramatic difference in the totals in their home and road games. Since 2002, Rangers games have averaged no less than 10.27 runs at home (2006) and no more than 9.79 runs on the road (2003).
This year, Rangers home games are averaging 10.43 runs opposed to 9.69 on the road, a differential of nearly three-quarters of a run per game. That is their lowest home-road total differential since 2001. The differential was 1.006 in 2004 and a stratospheric 1.173 in 2008.
But betting the over in Rangers home games has been an established losing formula. The oddsmakers have adjusted for this long-term trend and continually post totals that the Rangers have trouble topping.
Over the last five full seasons, the over/under is just 184-198-23 at Rangers Ballpark, with no single year returning better than 53 percent on the over. It is not much better in Rangers road games during the same span, going 189-192-24 over/under.
This year, the over in Rangers games is taking a thorough beating. While the offense has slumped in June and misses the injured Josh Hamilton, the Rangers are still near the top of the major leagues in nearly all the major run-producing categories.
However, the over was just 12-22-2 through Texas' first 36 games at Rangers Ballpark. It performed just as poorly on the road, going 12-21-1 in Texas' first 34 road games.
Historically, the average temperature in the Arlington area is 96 degrees in July and August. That can help the ball carry better and adds a fatigue factor to both pitchers and hitters.
But as both the long-term and recent totals numbers indicate, trying to capitalize on the increase in offense at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington can make you crazy from the heat.