Capping the four contenders for the AL East crown
By JON KUIPERIJ
Remember the good old days when the American League East could be decided by a coin flip?
Gone are the days when the New York Yankees were the closest possible thing to a lock, the Boston Red Sox were perennial bridesmaids and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays would spend more time in the basement than Uncle Fester.
Tampa shocked the world last year by winning the division, marking the first time since 1997 that the Yankees or Red Sox did not finish atop the division. It was also the first time New York missed the playoffs since Major League Baseball realigned its divisions in 1995.
Parity in the East is even more evident this season, with the Toronto Blue Jays also entering the race for top spot.
We quickly break down the chances of the teams vying for the crown of a division that has housed six World Series champions in the past 11 years.
Boston Red Sox (-200)
Why they'll win: After opening the season with losses in six of its first eight games, Boston has gone 40-21 since. That includes an 8-0 record against the Yankees. Even better, the Red Sox have built their four-game division lead without getting much hitting from DH David Ortiz or even defending AL MVP second baseman Dustin Pedroia. Just imagine what happens if those two start hitting.
Why they won't: Ortiz is hitting a measly .213 on the year with only six home runs and 30 RBI. Starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-5, 8.23 ERA) is a mess and the back end of rotation features 42-year-olds Tim Wakefield and John Smoltz. Third baseman Mike Lowell (hip) is also showing signs of wear and tear.
New York Yankees (+180)
Why they'll win: Money can patch a lot of holes. Hefty lefty CC Sabathia can carry a team, much like he helped the Milwaukee Brewers into the playoffs last year. New York's big-name lineup can compensate for pitching deficiencies. Ninth-inning leads are safe with ageless closer Mariano Rivera.
Why they won't: Coming off hip surgery in the offseason, Alex Rodriguez is already complaining about fatigue and the Yanks plan to rest him once a week until the All-Star break. Former ace Chien-Ming Wang (0-5, 12.30 ERA) doesn't appear to have any answers. Joba Chamberlain doesn't consistently pitch deep into games, which means a sub-par long relief corps gets involved far too often.
Tampa Bay Rays (+800)
Why they'll win: They've surprised us before, winning the AL East last year and reaching the World Series. Tampa Bay appears to be turning it on again, winning eight of its last 11 contests. Carlos Pena leads AL in home runs (22) and Evan Longoria is second in RBIs (61), but offense isn't completely reliant on those two.
Why they won't: The hangover theory, where teams tend to struggle the season after losing in the World Series. Second baseman and offensive sparkplug Akinori Iwamura is out for the season. Starting pitcher Scott Kazmir (4-4, 7.69 ERA) and reliever Grant Balfour (0-3, 5.01) aren't providing anything close to what they did last year.
Toronto Blue Jays (+3000)
Why they'll win: They're due. The Blue Jays haven't made the playoffs since winning back-to-back World Series in 1992 and '93. The pitching staff is anchored by arguably the best in baseball, Roy Halladay (10-1, 2.53 ERA). Scott Rolen has surprised with a .329 batting average, while the production of Adam Lind and Aaron Hill (48 RBI each) has also exceeded expectations.
Why they won't: Beyond Halladay, the rotation is made up of smoke and mirrors, and that can only work for so long. Second half of schedule is much tougher, with 18 games against Tampa Bay, 15 against the Yankees and 12 against Boston. Jays are a combined 3-6 against those opponents this year. This team lacks a true lead-off man, a legitimate cleanup hitter and a reliable closer.