Contenders or Pretenders?
By Josh Jacobs
It’s always a tough task to handicap teams during this time in April. The sample size for various stats, standings and trends is just too small to gauge. But that doesn’t mean bettors can’t get an early feel for what might develop down the road.
For example, Seattle and Baltimore have left the starting gate on a frenetic pace. Not picked by many to run through their respected divisions, it’s worth dedicating a moment to both clubhouses. Is their solid start a sign of good things to come from a financial standpoint? Could they become this year's Tampa Bay Rays? And should we hop on this train as backers or is it just too premature to commit our bankrolls to the cause?
Seattle Mariners (5-2, +403)
Already in the standings with five wins even before playing its first game at home this season, Seattle is giving us reason to take notice. This was a club that finished 2008 taking just 61 games to the win column. The most devastating of figures was finding itself down 36.57 units (-3657) at the end of ’08.
But it’s a new season and the Mariners have found glory within the pitching staff. Not to beat a dead horse day in and day out but we all know how important handicapping is in relation to the pitching game.
The staff as a whole has recorded a 2.92 ERA (4th best) and a 1.15 WHIP (3rd best) in the first seven games. Starting slingers Erik Bedard, Felix Hernandez and Jared Washburn have combined for a 3-0 record and a 2.06 ERA while the relief core has been responsible for manufacturing a 2-1 record with a 2.37 ERA.
The weakest link in this so far unbreakable chain has been Carlos Silva. Reported to have lost 20-plus pounds from last season, Silva appears to be the same pitcher that’s gone 28-44, harvesting a 5.53 ERA in the last three years. But don’t think that Silva will be calling Seattle home over the course of the season if his performance remains at the current level.
On offense, the Mariners haven’t set the world on fire. A .308 on base percentage has been a result of a .257 BA. Driving in 32 runs ranks 21st in the Majors and 59 hits is 18th ranked between both leagues. The conclusion is that while the bats haven’t been a large part to the early success we should all be aware that Seattle will no doubt have problems if the lumber doesn’t improve.
It may be way too early to make concrete predictions but from the small sample we’ve been given Seattle surely looks to be a club who's stock is on the rise. Whether the following will hold true is still up for debate but the Mariners are a perfect 3-0 during day light games but have split two apiece during night contests. More to this story when the season progresses...
Schedule: A look ahead has the M’s welcoming the L.A. Angels into Safeco Field from Apr. 14 to 16 followed by a three-game series versus Detroit and ending the home stand with another three-game series against Tampa Bay. It hasn’t been pretty in recent seasons as Seattle is 1-7 in the last eight meetings versus the Angels at home. L.A. has earned the long term record at 35-16 in the last 51 meetings.
Starters: C. Silva (0-1, 10.80) 4/14; J. Washburn (1-0, 0.00) 4/15; R. Rowland-Smith (0-0, 0.00) 4/16; F. Hernandez (1-0, 4.15) 4/17; E. Bedard (1-0, 2.03) 4/18
Odds: Most books had Seattle as an 11-1 long shot to take the AL West just before the season began. That price has been virtually cut in half as Sportsbetting.com currently has the Mariners listed at 5-1 odds in the division. And that division in value has trickled down to the AL Pennant where Seattle began the season at 40-1 versus 25-1 as of Tuesday.
Baltimore Orioles (5-2, +436)
So much for talk about Boston and New York. Baltimore has taken two of three from both New York and Tampa Bay to begin 2009. In the five wins thus far, the Orioles have been able to celebrate at home plate by scoring 7.6 runs per game (as compared to scoring just 2.5 runs per game in the two defeats).
Compared to the aforementioned Mariners, Baltimore is having success by slapping around the stick. On the season, the O’s have jumped out of the stats sheet. Led by Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora, the club is a blistering .303 inside the batters box (3rd best in the MLB).
In the scoring department, the Orioles have crossed the plate for 41 RBIs (6th ranked) while only going yard with five homers. The result has been offensive production produced by working for 72 hits (19 of them doubles) which has translated into a league best, .385 OBP.
As the saying goes, “with the good comes the bad.” For Baltimore a rotation and pen who’s worked up a 6.14 ERA and a .302 BAA can’t be statistics to hang your hat on. It can only be a matter of time until the high risk pitching staff outweighs the performance on offense, right?
Even though Jeremy Guthrie is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA the rest of the starting staff has struggled to survive. Koji Uehara maybe 2-0 in two starts this season but a 7.20 ERA accompanied by a 1.70 WHIP could have been a guaranteed pair of defeats without that fired up offense in the box. Starters Adam Eaton and Alfredo Simon have combined for a 0-2 record with an 8.10 ERA.
The same holds true for a bullpen which has been short of providing relief. In the 26.2 innings logged in by eight different pitchers, the pen has built up a 7.76 ERA. A 1.73 WHIP and 7.76 strikes per nine innings have both been detrimental numbers to post.
Again, while we’ll need more time to see if Baltimore is a contender or a pretender just remember that the team was 6-1 to begin 2008 and we all know where that road ended. In 2009, the O's are 4-0 at night but just 1-2 during the day. We'll see were this leads as the schedule moves foward.
Schedule: The Orioles will finish up their three-game series in Texas on Apr. 15 followed by taking a long, four-game trip to Boston from Apr. 17 to 20 before returning home to face the White Sox. The ‘under’ is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Texas.
Starters: A. Simon (0-1, 7.20) 4/14; M. Hendrickson (1-0, 1.69) 4/15; J. Guthrie (2-0, 2.25) 4/17; A. Eaton (0-1, 9.00) 4/18; K. Uehara (2-0, 7.20) 4/19
Odds: Before opening day, the price tag assigned by most spots had Baltimore as 45-1 underdogs to grab the No. 1 spot in the AL East. That price hasn’t dropped dramatically as Sportsbetting.com is listing the O’s at 30-1. From the AL Pennant perspective, most books have got Baltimore at 30-1 odds compared to opening the season at 70-1. The 2009 regular season win total was installed at 71 ½-games with the ‘under’ catching a -155 (bet $155 to make $100) price and the ‘over’ sitting at +125 (bet $100 to make $125).
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