Cross country travel having impact on baseball betting
By Doug Upstone
With the month of August now front and center, thoughts of football have started creeping into those betting on sports and fantasy football enthusiasts. The idea slipped into my head about one of the more common aspects of football betting often discussed, cross-country trips. The reasons are obvious why this situation is problematic, as players have to adjust body-clocks when changing three time zones and might not be fully prepared physically or mentally come game time.
This led to pulling out shovel and seeing if this had any impact on Major League Baseball.
The criteria set up was a team had to fly East or West thru three time zones. I neglected to worry about if there was a day off in between games and used only the initial contest as a benchmark.
At the start of this season, I disregarded the Los Angeles Dodgers beginning play in Pittsburgh, since they had ample time to arrive. I did however count teams from the East that flew West for a couple of series and traveled back towards home base, but played one more road series in their regular time zone after again jetting across the lower 48.
Baseball has differences compared to football that can be nit-picked, like starting pitcher situations are always different, making money lines more volatile. Certain divisions can be stronger or weaker, however that would also be true of football, studying an extended period of time.
Since I do not recall seeing this information in the marketplace recently, my first thought was it might be pointless, with nothing being learned one way or the other.
Started with 2009 to get a full season record and had to admit, was underwhelmed. The overall record was nondescript 31-32, -3.35 units. That season the AL West was the big loser with 3-9 record and -6 units.
Undeterred, went back one more year to 2008 and found something more worthwhile. This particular year the final record was 26-38 for -6.85 units lost. That season was all over the board, as the AL Central was 0-5, all as underdogs. The AL West was 9-8, but nicely profitable +5 units thanks to seven underdogs winning outright. The NL West was the difference-maker with 4-11 mark, losing 7.15 units.
This study moved ahead to this year’s baseball action and the results were more of what was expected. Time travelers are 16-24, -8.7 units on the season with nine weeks left in the regular season, a fairly notable figure.
In football, this is one condition that arises annually, however it is largely ignored in baseball.
A further breakdown has well-travelled road underdogs 35-66, -25.15 and visiting favorites 38-28, +6.25 units. Both numbers are about what one might expect, with the former possibly having a slightly higher loss percentage.
Our almost three-year results wind up 73-94, -18.9 units. This isn’t knowledge that will make you rich, but it can put extra cash in your pocket the next time this situation pops up for the shrewd baseball bettor.