Cy Young Contenders
By Joe Nelson
Cliff Lee has posted simply incredible numbers since joining the Phillies, picking up his fifth win in five starts on Monday and featuring an ERA of 0.68. Much like CC Sabathia did last season there has been talk of Lee being considered for the Cy Young award despite splitting time in both leagues. Sabathia had a much larger sample in the NL last season and he did finish fifth in the voting, but Lee even has acknowledged it would be ridiculous to consider him over pitchers that have posted impressive numbers all season long in the league. The conversation about Lee would be made moot much more easily if a pitcher had stepped out to deliver a truly remarkable Cy Young season, but in both leagues the voting will lack a clear-cut standout choice unless something special happens in the final weeks.
In the National League, Tim Lincecum remains the favorite to win the award this season, which would make for impressive back-to-back wins for the 25-year old. Lincecum has certainly had a fine season as he leads baseball in strikeouts and owns the third best ERA in the NL at 2.43. Stat-gurus rightfully disvalue the win as a key measure of a pitcher but in reality the voters will not, so Lincecum with just 12 wins may get passed up as he has not won in any of his past four outings and the Giants appear to be fading. Adding to the dilemma for voters is that Lincecum’s teammate Matt Cain currently has an identical 12-4 record and also a 2.43 ERA. Lincecum greatly overshadows Cain in strikeouts but Cain has had a remarkable season as well but he may also lack the number of wins to seriously contend for the award.
The emerging candidate in the race has to come from St. Louis, as the Cardinals continue to pull away in the NL Central. Voters would also have a bit of dilemma as well as two Cardinals pitchers are deserving of mention. Chris Carpenter, a past Cy Young winner would have to be the leader with a 14-3 record and a league-leading 2.16 ERA. Carpenter has made just 21 starts however and his counting statistics like strikeouts will not measure favorably with many of the other contenders. Adam Wainwright has also delivered a fantastic season for the Cardinals and in the past six weeks he has pitched as well as anyone in baseball, perhaps outside of Lee. Wainwright also has 14 wins but his seven losses will make it tough for him to compete with Carpenter though he has made five more starts and also features a strong 2.61 ERA and 41 more strikeouts. There will likely be little mention for him as a candidate but St. Louis closer Ryan Franklin deserves some notice as the most dominant reliever in the NL, featuring a 1.11 ERA and going 30 for 32 in save opportunities.
Dan Haren owns a great 2.74 ERA and impressive strikeout-to-walk numbers, but playing for a struggling Arizona team leave him with a 12-8 record and likely out of contention barring an incredible finish. Dodger pitchers Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw were relevant in this race for much of the first half of the season, but like their team, both have faded in recent weeks. Wandy Rodriguez also has enjoyed a great season and is competitive with all the contenders in the key categories, but playing for a Houston team out of playoff race will count him out. Other than Franklin, the other relievers in contention lack the eye-popping numbers that would be needed for a relief pitcher to jump into the mix.
The pitchers with chance to make a move into contention for this award will likely hinge on the playoff push of their respective teams. Florida ace Josh Johnson owns a 12-3 record with a 2.99 ERA and if he pitches brilliantly down the stretch and can lead the Marlins into a wild card spot or at least commendably close playing for the low-payroll Marlins he should warrant serious consideration. The Colorado Rockies are a team with serious momentum right now and if the Rockies make the playoffs and particularly if they unseat Los Angeles in the AL West, starters Jason Marquis and Ubaldo Jimenez could both move into that picture. Both would sit a solid step back in terms of raw numbers at this point in the year and likely would have trouble surpassing some of the more established pitchers. An extreme dark horse candidate would be Javier Vazquez of the Braves who has the requisite strikeouts and a great ERA but has just ten wins and would need the Braves to make a serious September push.
In the American League, the challenge for voters will be even more difficult. At the All-Star Break, two candidates stood out, Zack Greinke and Roy Halladay. Neither likely has the credentials to contend for the award at this point as both have struggled in the second half. Greinke still leads the AL in ERA at 2.44 but he is now 11-8 after starting 8-1 and the Royals have fallen back to the familiar depths of the AL Central despite a promising start and the chances of Greinke improving his numbers are bleak. After constant trade rumors failed to materialize, Halladay has failed to live up to the great results that created his high demand and too-steep price tag. Halladay still owns strong numbers but not likely good enough to win the votes especially on what will be a losing team in Toronto.
Voters will be left to choose from the pitchers that will likely lead the league in wins playing on playoff teams, but featuring less than elite ERAs or choosing a pitcher on a decent team that has slightly better overall numbers. CC Sabathia leads baseball with 15 wins despite most considering it to be somewhat of a disappointing year relative to his last two seasons. Sabathia’s ERA is currently 3.59 which would be considered high for Cy Young consideration but he conceivably could lead the lead by several wins for the team with the best record in baseball. Josh Beckett will be in a similar situation and a couple of clutch performances that leads Boston into the playoffs could build some traction for his campaign but his 3.65 ERA is also a shade too high. Sabathia edged out Beckett for the award in 2007, despite Beckett getting the last laugh in the playoffs and the storyline between the two pitchers could continue with this vote and the potential playoff results.
Detroit has two starters that should be in the mix should the Tigers hold on to the AL Central lead. Neither has truly standout numbers, but Edwin Jackson is third in the AL for ERA and has been a reliable starter for Detroit even though he has just ten wins. Justin Verlander likely has a greater chance of getting votes as a more established name, plus 14 wins and the AL lead in strikeouts. Verlander has been hit hard in several games however and owns a much higher ERA than Jackson and several other AL starters.
The long shot candidates lack the past success and familiarity that Sabathia, Beckett, Halladay, and Verlander would benefit from. Felix Hernandez has the numbers in every key category to warrant attention, but he will have a hard time keeping up in wins and he will be hurt by the lack of visibility playing in Seattle. Scott Feldman and Jeff Niemann have great records pitching for playoff contenders, but neither comes close to an elite level in strikeouts nor ERA. Mark Buehrle has the perfect game stamp on his resume, but he likely will not get enough wins either and his overall numbers are not in the same league as some of the other candidates.
Francisco Rodriguez was able to steal some votes last year with his spectacular season for an Angel team with a great record, but even an all-time single season saves record was not enough to win the award. It would be tough for Rodriguez and Angel fans to swallow but the New York media could make a push for Mariano Rivera that would have a decent chance of success in a year with no standout candidate. Rivera is having a season similar to many of his other great years but playing for a first place team after years of success could garner some career achievement votes for this year’s Cy Young award. Rivera’s 1-2 record does not look Cy worthy, but his ERA is 1.87 and he has converted 36 of 37 saves while posting a 6.5:1 strikeout to walk ratio.
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