Division Series Previews
By Bodog
In a way, it’s sad to see the 2010 MLB regular season come to an end. That means we won’t be able to fade the Pittsburgh Pirates (-21.71 units) for another year. Talk about easy money. But the playoffs are here, which means the baseball betting action is about to pick up. We’ve got the best teams in the majors sending their best pitchers to the mound in search of the elusive World Series. Here’s a look ahead at what’s in store.
American League
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
The Yankees (95-67, -4.61 units) skidded down the stretch at 9-17 and have to settle for the AL Wild Card, but they’ll take it. They’re the best hitting team in the majors with a .350 OBP and second only to the Boston Red Sox with a .786 OPS. And they have excellent defensive players at several positions, especially Brett Gardner (21.7 UZR) in left. But the pitching rotation is shaky after No. 1 starter CC Sabathia (3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP).
Minnesota (94-68, 13.19 units) won the AL Central and gets home-field advantage in this series. This is another strong hitting team (.341 OBP, .762 OPS) despite the loss of Justin Morneau, and the pitching is improved with the return of Francisco Liriano (3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) to form. But the bullpen is weak, and the Yankees took four of six games between them during the regular season. New York is 7-2 to win the World Series; Minnesota is 8-1.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Can the Rangers (90-72, -1.60 units) keep their upward trajectory after winning the AL West? They’ve dramatically upgraded their pitching over the past few years, most notably adding Cliff Lee (3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) in July. But their best hitter, Josh Hamilton (1.044 OPS), is playing with sore ribs and missed most of September. Texas ended the year 7-8 and will struggle to win any non-Lee start without a healthy Hamilton.
The Rays (96-66, 2.94 units) have the best record in the American League, but they’re behind New York at 9-2 to win the World Series – Texas is near the bottom of the pile at 11-1. Tampa is a good value pick; the Rays have all the components of a winning team, yet they’re undervalued because of their history and small-market status. Tampa Bay is 17-5 in its last 22 games against Texas at Tropicana Field.
National League
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
This has been an amazing turnaround season for the Reds (91-71, 15.35 units). Their hitting is impressive (.338 OBP, .774 OPS), and the pitching has improved, although manager Dusty Baker appears to have overworked his staff. The bullpen has flashy fireballer Aroldis Chapman (2.03 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) and not much else. Cincinnati looks like a paper tiger at 11-1 World Series odds.
Worse, the Reds have to face the hottest team in the playoffs. The Phillies (97-65, 9.71 units) won 15 of their last 19 games to take the NL East with the best record in the majors. The addition of Roy Oswalt (2.76 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) was a masterstroke for a team that already has a strong offense and a pair of aces in Roy Halladay (2.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) and Cole Hamels (3.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP). This is why the Phillies have overtaken the Yankees as 11-5 favorites to win the World Series.
Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
The Braves (91-71, 0.32 units) are returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2005, but just barely. They took the NL Wild Card on the last day of the season, using ace Tim Hudson (2.83 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) to get there. That means Atlanta’s NLDS rotation will start with Derek Lowe (4.00 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) instead. It’s a step back for a team that’s already missing Chipper Jones and Martin Prado on offense.
Moving into top spot in the NL West with seven wins in their last 10 games: the Giants (92-70, 13.99 units), another successful rebuilding story after last making the playoffs in 2003. Like the Braves, the Giants have outstanding pitching, led by two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum (3.43 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). San Francisco doesn’t hit well, but the rotation and the bullpen are strong enough to merit some attention at 7-1 World Series odds. The Braves are last on the odds list at 12-1, and they’re 1-6 in their last seven trips to AT&T Park.