Early Season Surprises
By Kevin Rogers
Almost three weeks into the baseball season, several last-place teams from 2009 have gotten off to fast starts out of the gate. We all know that this is an extremely long season and these teams will fall back to the pack eventually. However, there's no reason to ignore these clubs while they're playing well if it benefits bettors. We'll take a look at four squads that have impressed so far and have profited in the process.
Oakland Athletics
The A's finished at the bottom of the AL West last season, but with several Angels defecting and the Rangers and Mariners likely taking a step back, Oakland has a shot to surprise. Bob Geren's team has done that so far by winning nine of their first 14 games.
Oakland's offense was dreadful last season, but this season the lineup has produced the most runs inside the division with 62. Despite the high number of runs plated, the A's have turned into a terrific 'under' play lately by cashing it in seven of the last eight games. The key has been Oakland's pitching limiting opponents to four runs or less in 11 games (8-3).
The A's have re-worked their pitching staff by acquiring Ben Sheets from Milwaukee and getting Justin Duchscherer back after missing last season with an arm injury. Sheets was unable to win each of its first two starts against Felix Hernandez and Jered Weaver, but bounced back by shutting down the Orioles on April 15. Duchscherer rebounded from a mediocre outing against the Mariners in his season debut to post consecutive solid starts versus Seattle and Baltimore. The pitching staff ranks second in baseball with a 2.90 ERA, just one of clubs owning an ERA below 3.00 (Cardinals, 2.42).
The Yankees invade the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum for three games prior to a visit from the Indians this weekend. The A's are 6-2 at home through the first eight by the Bay, while going 6-0 as a favorite of less than $1.60. Oakland heads out east for a six-game road trip to Tampa Bay and Toronto, as the A's hold plenty of value over the next few weeks.
Washington Nationals
The Nats have seen little success since moving from Montreal in 2005 as this club has continuously finished in the cellar of the NL East. Washington hasn't had it easy this season by facing the two-time defending NL Champion Phillies six times already. However, the Nats are holding their own while possessing an over .500 record.
Washington's offense wasn't its problem last season, instead a below-average pitching staff did in the Nationals. Through the first few weeks, the pitching has seen its ups and downs, allowing double-digit runs on three occasions. The Nats have been inconsistent with totals, going on several streaks this season, but are riding a 3-1 'under' run after Monday's 5-2 victory over Colorado.
Jim Riggleman's club is a solid 6-2 the last eight as an underdog (+7.8 units), including victories over Johan Santana, Yovani Gallardo, and Aaron Cook. The lineup has picked up its scoring after a slow start, tallying at least five runs in six straight games.
Washington's bullpen has improved after finishing dead-last in 2009 as ex-Pirates closer Matt Capps leads the National League with six saves. The rotation has seen little progression despite the signing of Jason Marquis from Colorado. The veteran righty owns a bloated ERA of 20.52 after allowing seven earned runs without recording an out in an 11-7 loss to the Brewers.
The road doesn't get easier for the Nats as they host the Rockies and Dodgers over the next five days. Washington travels to Chicago and Florida next week with opportunities to cash as a substantial underdog. The Nats took six of the final nine meetings with the Marlins last season after dropping the first nine matchups.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The NL Central seems like the Cardinals' division to lose, as the other five teams are jockeying for position. The Cubs and Brewers have each struggled out of the chute, but the Pirates have been treading water so far with a pair of home series victories over the Dodgers and Reds.
Pittsburgh will ultimately struggle away from PNC Park, going 2-4 in six away contests at San Francisco and Arizona. The Pirates are a strong 4-1 as a home underdog, while playing the next three games at PNC against the Brewers. The offense has been consistent at home, averaging 5.16 runs/game, as the Bucs have scored two runs or less just once.
The pitching staff ranks last in ERA at 6.34, but Zach Duke is 2-0 with an ERA of 2.37. The Pirates are 3-0 in Duke's three starts, as the bullpen cost him a chance at a third victory against the Reds, but Lastings Milledge came through with a walk-off hit to lock up the win.
Pittsburgh has a tough road ahead after the Milwaukee series, heading on a ten-game trip to Houston, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles. Five of the Pirates' six road games have finished 'over' the total, while beating Matt Cain and Dan Haren as substantial underdogs.
San Diego Padres
The Padres started the season slow at 2-4, but coming home has turned things around with a 5-2 run. The highlight for the light-hitting Pads was dropping 17 runs on Jair Jurrjens and the Braves in the home opener at Petco Park on April 12.
San Diego's pitching has picked up over the last four games, limiting opponents to eight runs while winning each contest. The Padres needed to improve within the division and have done so with six victories in the first ten matchups against NL West foes.
Subtracting the 17-run effort against Atlanta, the Padres are averaging 3.41 runs/game in the other 12 contests. San Diego's pitching has carried them despite losing Jake Peavy to the White Sox last season and Chris Young to injury. The Padres own an ERA of 3.48, which ranks fifth in baseball, while the bullpen sits in the ninth spot with a 3.11 ERA.
Following this home series against the Giants, the Padres will venture out of the NL West with road series at Cincinnati and Florida. San Diego returns to Petco Park on April 29 for a seven-game homestand with Milwaukee and Colorado, making for some nice underdog opportunites.
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