Failure to Launch
By Kevin Rogers
Minute Maid Park was once known as a band-box in which high-scoring games were the norm on a nightly basis. That's not exactly the case anymore, as the Astros are playing much lower-scoring contests at home, and when a right-hander pitcher takes the mound for the opposition, it's almost a certainty that runs will be at a premium.
The Astros still have plenty of pop in their lineup, with Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Miguel Tejada as mainstays for Cecil Cooper's team. Berkman's numbers, though, have taken a hit this season. The Houston first baseman is batting a pedestrian .224, despite being tied with Lee for most home runs on the team with eight. Lee and Tejada are doing their part at the plate, each hitting well over .300, while Hunter Pence leads the team in batting average at .336. So why have the Astros scored three runs or less in ten of 15 home games against right-handed starting pitchers?
The answer is hard to quantify, but Houston has faced six of the top 18 right-handers pitchers in ERA at home. It also helps that lefty Wandy Rodriguez has been one of the top starters in baseball this season, compiling a 1.90 ERA in eight starts. Rodriguez has contributed to the 'under' trend at home by taking the mound in four 'unders' at Minute Maid Park. Roy Oswalt has been inconsistent this season, winning just one of three decisions, while owning an ERA of 4.50. The Astros have gone 'over' in eight of Oswalt's last 14 home starts when the opponent sends out a right-handed starter, so there's no substantial advantage with Oswalt.
Astros vs. Right-Handed Pitchers at Home
Houston's pitching staff ranks in the bottom ten, while their bullpen has been without closer Jose Valverde for several weeks with a strained calf. For the exception of Berkman, the Astros have three of their top hitters batting above .315. One thing Cooper can point to is leaving runners in scoring position, with Houston batting .249 in that situation, including a .226 clip with runners in scoring position with two outs.
The Astros face right-handers at home the next four games, wrapping up their series with Milwaukee, then hosting cross-state rival Texas over the weekend. The Brewers will throw Jeff Suppan on Thursday (facing Oswalt), while the Rangers will trot out Vicente Padilla on Friday, Scott Feldman on Saturday, and Brandon McCarthy in the finale on Sunday. The Astros and Rangers have played low-scoring games over the years in Houston, finishing 'under' the total in six of the last nine meetings dating back to 2006.
Is this current trend an anomaly, or looking back did we miss something that could have made us money? In 2008, the Astros basically split their home totals against right-handers, finishing 'over' 26 times, 'under' 27 times, and pushing five times. The good news is we might not be too late to the party.
VegasInsider.com