Final Interleague Weekend Power Trends 6/24-6/26
By Steve Makinen
This weekend offers the last of the interleague matchups for the season as the National League and American League teams won’t square off again until the Fall Classic, that is of course, if you don’t count the All-Star Game in a couple weeks. Unless the N.L. enjoys a huge weekend, it looks like another year where the A.L. gets the edge, as they go in with a 110-96 advantage. The best chances the Senior Circuit has to gain ground over the next few days figure to come in Philadelphia, where strangely, the Phillies VISIT the Jays, in Cincinnati, where the Reds host the Ohio battle with Cleveland, and in Kansas City, where the Cardinals visit the Royals in the heartland series. Let’s take a look at all the top action going on and reveal this weekend’s list of Top StatFox Power Trends to consider in your wagering.
The Windy City rivalry resumes on Friday with the White Sox hosting the Cubs on the South side. Ozzie Guillen’s team has gotten the best of its N.L. counterparts of late at U.S. Cellular Field, taking five of the last six games. They also took two of three from the Cubs at Wrigley a couple weeks back, holding the Cubs to just seven runs. The Sox figure to have the edge here too, as they have gotten red-hot and come into the series on a 9-game winning streak.
Still, that streak by Chicago is not even the longest winning surge in baseball right now. That belongs to the Rangers, who have taken 11 in a row to grab control of the A.L. West Division, 4-1/2 games on top of the Angels. Texas figures to be a sizeable favorite in its first two games of the weekend series with the lowly Astros, who make up three games of the 11 won in a row after last weekend’s sweep. Overall, the Rangers are on a healthy 11-4 run versus Houston over the last three years.
The strangest series of all over the weekend will be in Philadelphia, where the Jays host the Phillies. No, you didn’t read that in error. Because of a conflict with Rogers Centre this weekend, the Jays-Phils series had to be moved and Philadelphia was the decided location. That means while the Phillies will sleep in their own beds over the next few nights, the Jays will dawn the home white uniforms and bat last. Oddsmakers haven’t fallen for MLB’s trick, as they have the Phillies and Roy Halladay as huge favorites in the series opener. Toronto though, has won six of the L9 games vs. Philadelphia. Something else to note, Toronto is 8-1 OVER the total on the “road” in interleague play this season.
Now, getting to the actual playoff contenders at this point, there is a series of hot and not in New York this weekend between the Mets and Twins. Minnesota comes off a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers, who they have historically had their way with, while New York has used the last month of interleague play to thrive, going 11-4 for the N.L.’s best mark. That series matches the #1 team in the A.L. Central vs. the #2 team in the N.L. East. The shoes are reversed in Atlanta, where the leaders of the N.L. East, the Braves, take on the team closest to the Twins, the Tigers. Both divisions show ½ game margins at the top so all four teams will be keeping an eye on the scoreboard.
Finally, the rest of the quality action is out west, where the Rockies visit the Angels, the Dodgers host the Yankees, and the Giants welcome Boston to town. The LA-Colorado series is particularly interesting, since these are two of the better interleague clubs in baseball over the last few years. In fact, the Angels boast a 19-5 record in their L24 games vs. N.L. West foes. The Yankees-Dodgers matchup is sure to strike up feelings of past World Series’ and perhaps even days further of yesteryear when the teams used to be neighbors in Brooklyn and the Bronx. Speaking of teams strong in interleague play, the Red Sox have been outstanding in such games under manager Terry Francona, going 90-41 in his tenure.
Now, here’s a look at those Top StatFox Power Trends certain to affect your wagering this weekend…
SAN DIEGO at FLORIDA
# FLORIDA is 21-10 OVER (+10.9 Units) in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 5.4, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 1*)
CHICAGO CUBS at CHI WHITE SOX
# CHI WHITE SOX are 12-4 (+9.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 5.1, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 1*)
PHILADELPHIA vs. TORONTO
# TORONTO is 9-0 OVER (+9.1 Units) vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TORONTO 5.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 2*)
WASHINGTON at BALTIMORE
# WASHINGTON is 19-6 UNDER (+12.2 Units) vs. a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 4.0, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 2*)
MINNESOTA at NY METS
# NY METS are 17-9 (+11.3 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. The average score was NY METS 4.0, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 2*)
CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI
# CLEVELAND is 11-29 (-12.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was CLEVELAND 4.0, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 0*)
ARIZONA at TAMPA BAY
# ARIZONA is 11-32 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 3.8, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 0*)
DETROIT at ATLANTA
# ATLANTA is 22-6 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The average score was ATLANTA 5.3, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 2*)
HOUSTON at TEXAS
# TEXAS is 12-1 (+10.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season. The average score was TEXAS 6.5, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)
ST LOUIS at KANSAS CITY
# KANSAS CITY is 15-5 OVER (+9.9 Units) vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. The average score was KANSAS CITY 4.9, OPPONENT 5.7 - (Rating = 2*)
SEATTLE at MILWAUKEE
# SEATTLE is 1-12 (-11.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season. The average score was SEATTLE 3.0, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 2*)
PITTSBURGH at OAKLAND
# PITTSBURGH is 1-13 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was PITTSBURGH 2.8, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)
COLORADO at LA ANGELS
# COLORADO is 11-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 5.7, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)
NY YANKEES at LA DODGERS
# LA DODGERS are 40-22 (+15.4 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA DODGERS 4.5, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)
BOSTON at SAN FRANCISCO
# BOSTON is 7-21 (-16.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 3.3, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 2*)