First Half - Hot and Not
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com
The first half of the 2012 MLB betting campaign is now complete with all 30 teams set to go on break for this week's All-Star festivities. Here's a look at how the five best and worst teams stack up from a bottom line standpoint heading into the second half of the regular season.
$$$-Makers
Pittsburgh Pirates (48-37, $1887): The Buccos were here a year ago; well within the NL Central race at the midway point and buyers at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, a sickening extra innings marathon loss in Atlanta late in July took all the wind out of Manager Clint Hurdle's squad's sails. Because of it, the Pirates were relegated to a fourth place finish within the division. Now in first place heading into the ASB for the first time since 1997, the talk in Pittsburgh is that it's interested in acquiring some established outfielders with big sticks - Justin Upton and Carlos Quentin - to play alongside potential NL MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen. This money train is expected to continue rolling throughout the second half, especially with Pittsburgh's remaining opponents owning a .459 winning percentage and 42 of its remaining 81 games to be played within the comfy confines of PNC Park where the Buccos have won 29 of 43 games to date ($1503).
Baltimore Orioles (45-39, $1337): Raise your hand if you pegged the O's to be in second place within the AL East at this point in the second year of the Buck Showalter experiment. If it's up, you're a bold faced liar! Regardless, the Orioles have parlayed an offense that can hit the long ball with a pitching staff that has some nice pieces in the rotation and is anchored by the best bullpen the AL has to offer. Line-up sparkplug Nick Markakis is set to return after the All-Star break which is great news for Adam Jones who was at his best with him hitting in front of him the first two months of the season. Unfortunately, Baltimore possesses one of the toughest second half slates, so the franchise's 15-year playoff drought could possibly remain intact.
Washington Nationals (49-34, $1066): The Nats hit the ground running in April and haven't looked back, as Manager Davey Johnson's squad has the look and feel of a major player with the first half coming to a close. While the offense leaves a bit to be desired, Ryan Zimmerman and Michael Morse look to be coming into their own, but the Nationals have buttered their bread with a pitching staff that possesses some of the best throwing talent in both the starting rotation and bullpen. The team's 3.21 ERA and 1.20 WHIP are the best overall marks in the league, while the combined efforts of Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson, and Jordan Zimmerman have been good for 54 quality starts through 67 overall starts - SICK! The Nats have already tallied victories in five of their seven July games with more MLB betting wins certainly on the horizon down the road.
New York Mets (46-40, $1005): Though the Mets closed out the first half of their 2012 campaign dropping yet another series to the Chicago Cubs, Metropolitan fans have to be tickled pink with their club just 4.5-games in back of the Nats heading into the Midsummer Classic. For a team that finished up 2011eight-games under the breakeven point and only ahead of the Marlins in the NL East standings, things look to be headed in the right direction in Flushing. That said, David Wright and his teammates have a long uphill climb to battle in the second half with their scheduled opponents possessing a .498 winning percentage; the highest such mark for any NL playoff contender.
Chicago White Sox (47-38, $778): A tip of the cap must go out to Robin Ventura and his coaching staff for turning what was an underachieving ball club in 2011 into a bona fide World Series contender the following season. Though Adam Dunn is still striking out at an embarrassing frequency, he looks to be on track for another monster home run and RBI season, and the changing of sox from red to white has seemed to revitalize Kevin Youkilis's playing career. Two factors will have MLB bettors clamoring to continue backing Chicago in the second half: The first is their tremendous road record that's seen them win 23 of 39 games for a whopping $1104 return on investment, while the second is that their second half opponents carry a .497 winning percentage into the second half; that mark equates to the worst such mark in the American League.
$$$-Burners
Philadelphia Phillies (37-50, -$2462): The Phillies were up against it even before the regular season started with both Ryan Howard and Chase Utley figured to be on the DL for at the very least the first two months of the campaign. Though both of those former All-Stars have recently returned to the everyday line-up, what transpired over the course until they arrived is what has Manager Charlie Manuel's squad in a deep hole. With the defending NL East champs in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in six years, it's of the belief that Philadelphia will be sellers come the trade deadline with a number of players that helped lead it to success these last handful of years on the block.
Colorado Rockies (33-52, -$1560): In picking apart the Rockies from a statistical point of view, you can't help but fall in love with what you see; offensively that is! Manager Jim Tracy's outfit has mashed the ball all season long even though stud SS Troy Tulowitzki has missed a bulk of playing time with a myriad of injuries. Carlos Gonzalez is one of three Rockies sluggers that have amassed double-digit home run tallies, but when you give runs up at a faster pace than you score them, a W/L total reminiscent of what the Rox bring to the table is what you get. It got so bad for this pitching staff that it was shrunk to a four-man rotation, but that's hardly helped with Colorado still possessing the league's absolute worst ERA (5.26) and WHIP (1.58).
Milwaukee Brewers (40-45, -$1297): Wins have been too far and few between for the Brew Crew in the post Prince Fielder era with injuries to the key cogs picked up by upper management to fill the void left by his absence making it that much harder to stockpile wins. As it is, Milwaukee sits in fourth place within the NL Central a hefty eight-games off the pace, and though it sits a game over .500 at home, it's still cost its betting backers nearly $500 as a host. The story hasn't been much better on the road either with Ryan Braun and company coming out victorious in just 18 of their 42 overall games played (-$817).
Houston Astros (33-53, -$1147): You can't help but feel for this Astros franchise that's won a total of just 89 games dating back to the beginning of 2011, and with a switch in leagues scheduled for next season, it's going to get a whole heck of a lot worse for this young squad before it gets better. Having said that, Houston already possesses some nice pieces to the puzzle in Jose Altuve and J.D. Martinez, and it also has a number of viable trade bait to help this club get better in the long run. Still, it's going to continue being a struggle for this squad throughout the remainder of this season as long as it continues ranking out in the bottom third of the league in both the pitching and hitting categories.
Chicago Cubs (33-52, -$1145): The Cubs might check in as one of the worst first half bets in the league, but the "Loveable Losers" have started playing with a chip on their shoulder ever since stud 1B Anthony Rizzo was called up from Triple-AAA. Manager Dale Sveum's squad will enter the All-Star break having alternated wins in each of their seven games, and have captured series wins in three of their L/4. Playing away from Wrigley Field is what's really killed this club in 2012 with Starlin Castro and his mates having captured just 14 wins in 46 overall tries ultimately costing MLB bettors upwards of $1090 which equates to 95 percent of their overall money lost! They did however rattle off road wins in four of their L/7, so if Chicago can continue excelling in the visitors role, it should continue eating off more of its overall MLB betting deficit throughout the second half of the season.
Total Recap - 1st Half
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com
With the 2012 MLB season put on hold to see which league will ridiculously hold home field advantage in the upcoming World Series, we thought it would be a great idea to dig into the season long stats and determine which teams have been kind to both ‘over’ and ‘under’ bettors throughout the first three months of the campaign. Here’s a look at the Top 3 in both categories.
“3 Up”
Philadelphia Phillies (53-31-3): It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to see the struggling Phillies as the best ‘over’ bet in the league heading into the All-Star break. Philly currently sits in last place within the NL East and does so on the back of an offense that’s middle of the pack in terms of runs scored (4.2 RPG), batting average (.262), and home runs (84), but it’s the pitching staff that’s seen all games played go ‘over’ the closing number at a 61 percent frequency. While the Phillies starters rank 8th with 51 overall quality starts, Cole Hamels is the only starter that’s earned double-digit wins and that has everything to do with a bullpen that checks in second to last in the league with a collective 4.76 ERA. Jonathan Papelbon’s only blown two saves through 20 tries, but the bridge to get to him has been blown up numerous times due to the Phillies wretched middle and late relief. Until a trade is made to help bolster this unit, look for Philadelphia to continue partaking in high scoring games.
New York Mets (49-33-4): Like their hated division rivals up above, the Mets have a better than average offense paired with a starting staff that gets the job done more times than not. Manager Terry Collins’s squad doesn’t hit for the power the Phillies do evidenced by their 74 overall home runs launched, but David Wright and his mates have scored an average of 4.6 runs per game and hit for a .259 batting average. Again, the main reason the Mets have been one of the best ‘over’ investments in the league is because of a bullpen that can’t seem to get out of its own way. It checks in as the worst overall unit with a collective 4.94 ERA and has allowed the opposition to light them up for a .267 batting average against. Though Frank Francisco has converted 18 of his 21 overall save opportunities, he normally made the close out inning very interesting before going on the DL. It also hasn’t helped matters that the defense has committed 64 errors which have allowed for the opposition to get multiple extra chances at pushing runs across the plate.
Milwaukee Brewers (48-34-3): Led by Ryan Braun’s big bat (24 home runs), the Brew Crew’s offense has proven to be one of the most potent the league has to offer. It wrapped up the first-half of the season scoring an average of 4.5 runs per game, launched 101 bombs out of the park, and swiped a total of 63 bases. While the consistency hasn’t been there evidenced by the team’s .245 batting average, Milwaukee has shown a penchant for getting back into games with big strikes making it easier for ‘over’ bettors to cash tickets more times than not. That quick strike attack paired with yet another bullpen that has underperformed finds the Brewers checking in as the third best ‘over’ bet to date. John Axford has struggled mightily blowing five of his 20 overall save opportunities, and the rest of his bullpen mates haven’t been up to task of shutting the opposition down evidenced by their 4.60 collective ERA and .277 BAA; the latter tally being the worst mark in the league!
“3 Down”
Oakland A’s (31-52-3): This should come as no surprise whatsoever since the Athletics have been one of the best ‘under’ bets available for MLB bettors over the course of Billy Beane’s reign as the franchise’s general manager. Oakland has failed to put a feared offense on the field ever since Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada manned their positions as future cornerstones. While this year’s squad has gotten a standout performance from Josh Reddick, the lack of power is still there with the team hitting just 83 overall home runs collectively. The offense also finds itself in the bottom third of the league in runs scored (3.7 RPG), batting average (.225), OPS (.667), and OBP (.301). When you pair those unintimidating hitting stats with a starting staff that’s churned out 50 quality starts and owns a 3.67 ERA along with a bullpen ranked in the Top 5 of the league in both ERA (2.81) & BAA (.204), it hardly comes as a surprise to find the Athletics finishing up the first half of the season as the best overall ‘under’ wager on the betting board.
Los Angeles Angels (35-49-2): With a lineup boasting names like Pujols, Trumbo, Hunter, and Morales, the Angels were hardly a team pegged by many to be one of the more lucrative ‘under’ bets at the outset of the season. When you add Mike Trout’s unbelievable effort since getting called up to the “Bigs”, the likelihood of the Halos still being a money maker for ‘under’ bettors seems even less likely. Regardless, Los Angeles checks in as the second best ‘under’ investment at the halfway point of the season largely in part to its overall pitching staff’s efforts. Jered Weaver has been exceptional atop the Angels starting staff lending a hand in leading the unit to a 3.81 ERA & .241 BAA; Manager Mike Scioscia has received a total of 51 quality starts from his starting staff! The Halos have also been lights out in the back end of the bullpen with Scott Downs and Ernesto Frieri converting 19 of their 21 overall save opportunities. The latter is yet to give up an earned run since coming over from San Diego in early May!
Cincinnati Reds (34-48-3): The only National League representative on this list comes in the form of manager Dusty Baker’s Reds, who entered the break trailing the Pittsburgh Pirates by just one game in the NL Central and led the Atlanta Braves by a single game in the NL Wild Card race. Aiding ‘under’ bettors has been what’s proven to be a station-to-station offense evidenced by Cincy’s 43 overall stolen bases; a mark that finds them 36 swipes in back of the #1 ranked Miami Marlins. That, along with a Joey Votto led offense only hitting at a .248 clip has turned the Reds into a below average team in terms of run production (4.2 RPG). With the starting staff holding up their end of the bargain dishing out 53 quality starts to go with a unit ERA of 3.65, it’s made the bullpen’s job that much easier. Having said that, the pen has been flat out nasty with the likes of Logan Ondrusek, Sean Marshall, Jose Arredondo, Alfredo Simon and Aroldis Chapman more than holding up their ends of the bargain. The unit’s 2.77 ERA & .215 BAA are both ranked in the league’s overall Top 3!